Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251837 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 237 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through the remainder of the week, as a strong upper level ridge builds overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM Thursday... Little change required to the near term forecast. An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain hot and dry conditions across central NC this afternoon. Temperatures appear on track to reach near 90-lower 90s. Isolated convection may threaten/skirt our nw counties later this afternoon as orographic lift and available moisture aid to initiate convection over the higher terrain. Mean steering flow would translate the isolated cells toward the nw Piedmont. However, morning analysis depicts deep anti-cyclonic flow over the region, not conducive to convective development/maintenance. Thus, do not expect any appreciable rain to occur over the Triad region at this time. Tonight, presence of high pressure will maintain dry conditions. Modifying air mass will result in overnight temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than previous nights. Min temps upper 60s-around 70. && .SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday... The center of the upper ridge -forecast at 594dm- will shift east and be centered over southwest VA on Friday, bringing the 850mb thermal ridge across northwest NC and southern VA. 850mb temps around 21C favor highs in the upper 90s, and while mixing may not be quite that deep, highs should be on the upper end of guidance, 93- 96. dew points creeping back into the lower 70s area while will spell a return of humid conditions and heat indices back around 100F. A weakening cold front is forecast to drop into VA Friday evening, but ahead of the front lows on Friday night will be in the lower 70s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 PM Thursday... Saturday through Sunday night: The weekend is setting up to be mostly dry as an upper level ridge sits directly on top of central NC. At the surface a high pressure system will start Saturday over the Great Lakes before progressing to the northeast through New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Models try to generate a few showers, particularly on Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA. Will put slight chance in the forecast but confidence on this actually occurring is fairly low given the strong subsidence overhead. Saturday will be hot with maximum temperatures in the mid 90s but dewpoints should stay in the low 70s. This will result in heat indices creeping into the 100-105 degree range but probably wont be enough for a heat advisory. Temperatures will drop back to near 90 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Monday through Thursday: Model solutions begin diverging early next week so details will be hard to pin down at this point but we do know that the upper level ridge should relax and upper flow will become more zonal north of the area. To the south, the pattern will largely be dictated by where the current tropical invest winds up. Forecast model track spread is very large at this point as is the intensity guidance. Have increased chances for precipitation into the chance range for the end of the forecast period to account for any possible effects of the tropical system. Once the ridge breaks down the storm will be allowed to recurve the question is how far west will it be by that time and how quickly will it recurve. If the storm recurves before reaching the Florida Peninsula we could see dry weather here in NC as the storm goes out to sea. However if the storm recurves in the Gulf further west, then we could see rainfall ahead of the storm as early as Thursday morning. Highs near 90 each day with lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 120 PM Thursday... There is high confidence that VFR conditions will persist across central NC through Friday night. The exception will be scattered pockets of MVFR/IFR visibility between 09Z-12Z, mainly in the sandhills and coastal plain. This possibility appears highest in vicinity of KRWI. Otherwise, an area of high pressure will maintain dry weather with light wind conditions. This area of high pressure is expected to maintain its influence over our region through early next week. This suggest an extended period of VFR conditions, aside from patchy early morning MVFR/IFR fog. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...WSS

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