Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190200 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 959 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low across the Piedmont of North Carolina will drift east and then southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday. A strong ridge of high pressure across the Central Plains will expand into our region for Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 959 PM Tuesday... We updated to reduce the POP to a slight chance through 200 am, then NIL. The convection was diurnally driven and even with the current weak upper low and residual cool pocket aloft - the convection died off around mid-evening. There could still be a shower or storm pop up along old outflows for a few more hours. Numerous trees and power lines downed in Winston-Salem with late afternoon wet microbursts. Other severe storm warnings continue now to the south of this region in the Troy, Albemarle, Rockingham, and Wadesboro areas. These storms were moving/developing southward and should be weakening with loss of heating in the next hour or two. Another cluster of severe storms was moving southward along the entire northern tier of counties of the Piedmont, but these should weaken as well, but could still remain SVR for another hour as they threaten Roxboro, Henderson, Oxford, etc... as there is residual MLCAPES of 1500 J/KG to work with over the Piedmont where it has not been convectively overturned. We will update again to push the 50-70 POP for the Piedmont and Sandhills through mid-evening, with nothing much along the I-95 corridor away from the convective activity. The convection should wane by 900 or 1000 this evening with the loss of heating and limited forcing for ascent. Overnight lows will range within a few degrees of 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday... The upper trough will have become closed by Wednesday morning and will be centered near Goldsboro with a northeast-southwest trough axis. Convective coverage on Wednesday afternoon and evening will be more limited than previous days as the deep moisture axis will have shifted offshore and much of the area will be located on the subsident side of the trough. Will include slight chance PoPs for much of the area with slightly higher Pops across the Coastal Plain, east of the trough axis. The convection should dissipate early Wednesday evening. High temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees higher as morning low-level thickness values increase to 1410m or greater, supporting highs in the 89 to 94 range. Lows on thursday morning will range in the lower 70s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 PM Tuesday... The upper level low developing over the Mid-Atlantic today will remain over the region through Wednesday. The low will slowly migrate southward then southwestward Thursday and Thursday night along the eastern periphery of the ridge located over much of the Central U.S. A second upper level ridge will be located over the Atlantic during that time. Central NC will remain between the two highs through Friday night and as a result expect a mostly dry, but hot period, with convection chances limited to the far NW and SE. At the surface, a lee trough will linger over the region, with high pressure over the Atlantic. The result will be continued southwest flow ushering in warm moist air. Expect highs to be in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE through the weekend, with heat indices largely in the 100-106 range. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as they climb from mid 70s Thursday night to the mid to upper 70s for the remainder of the week and weekend. As stated in the previous discussion, convection will be mainly diurnal and limited to the differential heating zones over the mountains and along the sea breeze. For early next week, an upper level trough will start to amplify over the Eastern U.S. while the aforementioned low that settled over the northern Gulf Coast gets absorbed into the trough. Expect increased precip chances during that period, though temperatures should decrease some, highs in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 715 PM Tuesday... 24 hour TAF period... Scattered MVFR to IFR conditions will linger in between the KRDU/KGSO/KCLT terminals through 02z or so, then mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening and overnight. Another period of stratus is expected to redevelop late tonight although the coverage will be more limited and generally confined to the eastern Piedmont and especially the Coastal Plain. Looking further ahead... Mainly isolated afternoon and early evening storms are expected again on Wednesday, but in general VFR conditions expected with building high pressure aloft mid week through Friday. The is also a low probability of fog/low stratus in the morning across the east. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 20 July | 102 1942 | 76 1981 21 July | 102 2011 | 78 1932 22 July | 103 2011 | 78 2011 23 July | 105 1952 | 78 2011 24 July | 101 2011 | 79 2011 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 20 July | 100 1977 | 75 1986 21 July | 102 1926 | 76 2011 22 July | 101 1926 | 77 2011 23 July | 99 1952 | 78 2010 24 July | 99 1914 | 78 2010 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 20 July | 104 1932 | 80 1996 21 July | 105 1932 | 79 1977 22 July | 107 1932 | 79 2011 23 July | 103 2011 | 79 1998 24 July | 105 1952 | 79 1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH

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