Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 282340 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 740 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist over the western Piedmont through Monday night. An area of low pressure over the Atlantic will drift west toward the Carolina coast through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 321 PM Sunday... A zone of weak moisture convergence, being pushed west-sw by an upper level low off the SC coast, will maintain a threat for scattered showers and storms along our far eastern-se counties through sunset. A few of these showers may progress as far west as the highway 1 corridor by 5 or 6 PM but deeper moisture and better lift will remain confined to our far east-se counties. After sunset, this moisture confluent zone will remain anchored near the eastern periphery of our forecast area. Thus, could see isolated showers anytime during the overnight hours east of the I-95 corridor. Expect a deck of low clouds/stratus to develop to our east- ne and overspread into our eastern Piedmont and coastal plain counties by sunrise. The western Piedmont will remain under the influence of an area of high pressure near the surface and aloft. This will maintain mostly clear skies. Overnight temperatures will vary from the upper 60s to near 70 northwest to the lower 70s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM Sunday... Little change in the weather pattern across central NC Monday and Monday night. An area of high pressure will continue to extend across the western Piedmont, maintaining dry weather and seasonable temps. Moisture axis associated with the mid/upper level trough off the southeast U.S. will maintain a threat for showers and thunderstorms with most of the convection confined to the coastal plain and eastern sandhills. A few showers will likely be occurring in the morning though the bulk of the activity will occur during the mid afternoon into the early evening hours. Cloudiness over the eastern counties will inhibit sunshine for most of the morning, delaying temp recovery. Thus, should see a fairly uniform max temp field Monday afternoon with highs in the 85-90 degree range. Monday night will see conditions comparable to tonight with most of the cloudiness confined to the coastal plain and mostly clear skies in the western Piedmont. Min temps upper 60s west-nw to the lower 70s se. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 243 PM SUNDAY... A couple of systems to deal with during the long-term period, the first of which will be what comes of TD8, now located about 400mi SE of KHSE. Based on latest model guidance and NHC track, it appears that system will remain far enough to our east to preclude any impacts to central NC. Assuming no changes, the Tue-Wed time frame looks to be mostly-dry with subsidence on the north and west side of that system resulting in below-climo pops for central NC, along with temps remaining several deg above normal, despite NE flow. The next system will be a short wave trough and assoc sfc cold front approaching from the north on Wednesday night and moving across our CWA on Thursday. While the sfc boundary coupled with mid-upr forcing assoc with a departing jet streak will provide adequate forcing for ascent, NW pre-frontal low to mid-level flow suggests that the best moisture will be found closer to the coast. Thus will feature a west-east pop gradient for the day and evening hours Thursday, highest pops east. Temps will continue to remain above normal until the front moves through. Lastly, a lot of uncertainty remains for next weekend as it relates to what`s now the disturbed weather over the FL straights. Models have been bouncing around with it`s movement, and whether or not it`s going to make a run up along the SE coast late in the week into next weekend. Of course a lot can change between now and then, so for now, will keep pops at or below climo with near normal temps across our area for next weekend, while keeping a close eye on model trends. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 740 PM SUNDAY... 24-Hour TAF period: Expect aviation conditions similar to last night, with a period of low cigs and reduced visbys in the 09Z to 13Z time frame. Highest confidence of adverse aviation conditions in the south and east (KRDU, KFAY, KRWI) and lowest in the northwest (KINT and KGSO). Sub-vfr cigs could linger through the day at KRWI and KFAY, but confidence in that is low so will indicate scattered coverage. Best chance for showers overnight will be at KRWI as the tropical depression continues to move toward the Carolina coast, however they continue to dissipate as they progress inland. If and where they occur, showers could briefly reduce cigs and visbys. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds could be a bit breezy Monday as the pressure gradient increases, with highest gusts to the southeast. -KC Looking ahead: The above conditions expected to occur again Tuesday. Forecast confidence lowers for the remainder of the work week as model guidance offering varied solutions concerning the approach of a low pressure system from the south-southwest, and a cold front from the nw. At this time, the risk of adverse aviation conditions appear greater at KFAY and KRWI, and less so at KRDU, KGSO, and KINT. -WSS
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...KC/WSS

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