Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250704 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .Synopsis... Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through early Wednesday, bringing a period of hot and humid conditions to central NC. The chances for afternoon storms will increase by mid week. && .Near Term /through Tonight/... As of 305 AM Monday... ...Dangerously hot conditions expected today across much of central NC... An area of high pressure centered aloft over the Carolinas will maintain the hot and dry conditions today. Low level thicknesses around 1440m Sunday are projected to inch upward to 1443/44m this afternoon, supportive of max temps in the mid-upper 90s. Surface dewpoints mixed out quite a bit in the northwest Piedmont Sunday afternoon with mid-late afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s. While expect sfc dewpoints to mix out again, do not think that they will go as low as Sunday afternoon. Thus, should see heat index values around 105 degrees over most of central NC, excluding the nw Piedmont. Thus, little change required to the current heat advisory. Cannot rule out the potential for an isolated t-storm, mainly across the far south. However, considering the pocket of warm air aloft(as per 00Z GSO sounding), convective inhibition will be high. Thus,will refrain from mentioning an isolated t-storm for now. Tonight, very warm and muggy conditions will persist with most places not dropping below 80 degrees until after midnight. Min temps generally in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday night/... As of 305 AM Monday... Tuesday, a minor s/w approaching from the west will weaken the upper high overhead. This lowering of heights, the approach of the slightly cooler air aloft associated with the s/w, and a sfc tough over the Piedmont may be enough to allow for the development of isolated-scattered afternoon convection, mainly north of the I-40/85 corridor late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Elsewhere, presence of the upper ridge should inhibit convective development south of highway 64. Low level thicknesses projected to be just as warm Tuesday as today. Thus, will forecast max temps comparable to today in the mid to upper 90s. Another heat advisory may be warranted for most of the region. Any convection occurring early Tuesday evening across the north should quickly dissipate after sunset. Continued warm and muggy with overnight temps only cooling into the mid-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 210 PM Sunday... A low pressure system over eastern Canada moves offshore on Tuesday and leaves behind a frontal zone just north of the area. This boundary is not expected to move much for several days as high pressure over the southeast and westerly flow aloft maintain a hot and fairly stagnant pattern over central NC. The Piedmont trough is the only discernible boundary that remains over the area and could be the focus of some afternoon convection but not much in the way of severe weather to speak of. Wednesday and Thursday afternoons feature the best instability and shear comes up a little bit by late Thursday afternoon above 20 knots but confidence and timing at this point are very low. What is confident is that temperatures will remain hot with highs in the mid 90s every day through the long term and lows in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will also continue to be in the 70s. This will result in heat index values close to heat advisory criteria, especially in the south and east each day. && .Aviation /06Z Monday through Friday/... As of 138 AM Monday... Pockets of MVFR fog will develop across central NC between 09Z and 11Z, dissipating within an hour or two of sunrise. Otherwise, there is a high probability that VFR conditions will persist across central NC through Tuesday as an area of high pressure aloft remains overhead. There is a good probability that VFR conditions will persist through much of the remainder of the work week. Chances for afternoon- evening scattered convection will increase the later half of the week, along with the possibility of early morning fog and low clouds. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...WSS

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