


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --870 FXUS62 KRAH 290437 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1235 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week, slowly moving through the area Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 935 PM Saturday... Rain-cooled air/outflow from afternoon convection has swept through the entirety of cntl NC. Further nocturnal cooling and strengthening inhibition will favor a dry but continued unseasonably mild and humid night, with low temps in the upr 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 1243 PM Saturday... * Similar weather on Sunday with scattered showers and storms possible The synoptic pattern on Sunday will closely resemble that of today, with the quasi-stationary upper low to our west and a continued influx of moisture from the Bermuda high to our east. The only subtle difference is that the influence of the Bermuda high will be weaker with H5 heights sitting at 592DM today, becoming 590DM tomorrow. As such, the areal extent of showers and storms tomorrow may be greater than today, with portions of the Coastal Plain seeing activity tomorrow afternoon as well. Weak steering flow and shear should result in short lived pulse convection, with the strongest storms capable of gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain. Temperatures will also be very similar with low to mid 90s for highs/low to mid 70s for lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 105 PM Saturday... The most active period for shower/tstm activity during the long term will be from late Tuesday through Wednesday night as an upper short wave trough moves across the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast, dipping just far enough south to provide increased mid and upper level jet energy and assoc deep layer ascent. Otherwise, daily and mostly-diurnal pops the remaining days of the long term will be at or below climo chances, esp late in the week as subsidence and drier air moves in behind the aforementioned trough. Temps during the long-term period will continue to run above normal and hot, with perhaps the exception of Wednesday thanks to cloud and rain coverage that day which will tend to keep it a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1235 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Overnight, RWI is the most likely location to have visibility restrictions due to rain in the immediate vicinity of the airport on Saturday afternoon. RDU also cannot be ruled out for a visibility restriction - only a trace of rain was observed at RDU, but multiple inches of rain fell to the northwest in Durham. During daytime hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the highest confidence in coverage at INT/GSO. Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday. A cold front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday at most sites, pushing southeast to FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will decrease Thursday, with INT/GSO likely remaining dry and only a chance of precipitation at other sites.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Green