Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271913 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TODAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO BERMUDA-HIGH POSITION THROUGH MID-WEEK AND RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL NC WED INTO WED EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY... RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE RESULTANT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A SCATTERED THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN PLACE FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S F...WILL COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BL DECOUPLES AND LIGHT SSW SURFACE WINDS BECOME CALM. MIN TEMPS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...COOLEST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN/EASTERN PIEDMONT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OFFSHORE-DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM MONDAY... SWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TUE AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DEEPEN TUE...IN A TIGHTENING MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BE FORECAST TO LIE INVOF THE APPALACHIAN WEST SLOPES BY 12Z WED. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON(HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE)AND WILL NOT ONLY MAKE TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT WILL ALSO VERGE UPON RECORD MAX TERRITORY(FOR LIST OF RECORDS SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS MORE STRONGLY SUPPORTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... ...FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... A SHEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NWP GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY REACH THE COAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL TRAIL THE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WE`VE ALSO OPTED TO DEPICT THE NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS VS A BROADER AND LONGER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE RAIN. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MORE RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. TEMP FORECAST ON WED WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH A REASONABLE BUST POTENTIAL GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND LAGGING RAIN...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 1330-1350M RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ON THURSDAY. SLOW CLEARING WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME MID CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 1290-1310M RANGE DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH A SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
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&& .CLIMATE... RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH: MAX HI-MIN RDU 86/1919 69/1984 GSO 86/1919 64/1919 FAY 87/1919 65/2010 && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY... CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SSW BY THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AT WESTERN SITES...WITH ONSET OF RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE-DRIFTING SURFACE HIGH. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS(MOST LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY)...IN PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN PLACE GRADUALLY MODIFIES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY UNDER A 15 TO 20KT SWLY BREEZE. OUTLOOK: STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL ALSO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS EARLY WED MORNING. THEN THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WED...INTO WED EVENING AT EASTERN SITES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL/MWS LONG TERM...BLAES CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...CBL/MWS

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