Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261730 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY... THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. -KC WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY. THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER 90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID- UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KC/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...KC

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