Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180801 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 400 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will keep conditions warm and dry for the next few days, before a frontal system approaches for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Fog may be a problem this morning but compared to previous days forecast soundings look a little drier at the surface and dewpoint depressions are generally larger. If fog were to occur it would most likely be in the east. HRRR, SREF, and RAP solutions are not bullish on fog so have kept it out of the TAFs at this time and will adjust as needed. Another warm day is expected and persistence suggests temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s by this afternoon as high pressure continues at the surface with ridging aloft. Southwesterly return flow around the back side of the surface high will help to bring a little warm air advection to the area. No precipitation is expected and clouds should be at a minimum, thus helping insolation bring those afternoon highs up. Low temperatures in the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Tuesday... Wednesday will most likely be the warmest day of the week as high pressure continues to dominate the surface pattern. Thicknesses suggest high temperatures topping out in the mid 80s which for GSO is near record levels but we could end up just below on the day. Light southerly flow will again prevail with little cloud cover. Low temperatures in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
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As of 355 AM Tuesday... Thu: Another warm day, falling a few degrees short of daily records. We`ll remain in a mild prefrontal air mass with a deep but narrowing and weakening high pressure ridge spanning the area SW to NE. Expect plenty of sunshine with a continued dry column, stable through a deep layer, and no opportunity for moisture return. Projected thicknesses get warmer with each set of model runs; a few days ago, thickness forecasts for Thu were 20-25 m above normal, and now they reach to around 35 m above normal, suggesting highs in the lower-mid 80s. Thu night-Sat night: The potential remains for tropical or subtropical low development between the Bahamas and Bermuda by mid week, although the consensus of model solutions keeps this low tracking roughly northward well off the Carolina coast Thu through Fri. The cold front is expected to be aligned along the central/ southern Appalachians at 12z Fri morning, although if the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble mean/SREF mean (a bit slower than op GFS/ECMWF) are correct, this could be a little fast. But with substantial energy diving into the trough base, it is apt to stay progressive, with the surface cold front sweeping through central NC during the day Fri. Moisture return remains scant along and ahead of the front, with moisture fairly shallow and fleeting. Best forcing for ascent including mid level DPVA and upper divergence will be focused to our W and N, over western NC into VA, and will stay with the best pops here, with lower chances across the south. QPF appears small given the modest PW and shallow moisture. Expect highs Fri from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE. Thicknesses take their deepest plunge late Fri into Fri night, bottoming out 30-35 m below normal. Will stay close to guidance with highs in the lower-mid 60s, although if thicknesses do indeed drop this low with a steady cool NW breeze, later forecasts may need to bump these highs down a category. Lows will be in the upper 40s west/lower 50s east Fri night, and solidly in the lower to mid 40s Sat night. Sun-Mon: Fair and cool but with moderating temps back near normal. the mid level trough axis will kick farther to our NE with rising heights aloft, while modified high pressure at the surface builds across the Gulf states and Southeast. Highs 65-70 Sun and 69-73 Mon with mostly sunny skies. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF period: Fog will once again be the primary concern this morning although less confidence in it happening this morning as compared to previous days. Short term models are not showing much in the way of fog development and forecast soundings are drier at the surface then they have been the last few days. Dewpoint depressions in the observations are also larger than they have been but if fog were to occur it would be at KRWI or KFAY. Otherwise another day of light southwesterly winds with no precipitation and mostly clear skies. Long term: VFR conditions are largely expected through Friday or so when the next frontal system will approach from the west and bring a chance for sub-VFR aviation conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ellis NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.