-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 170548
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will extend from the Northeast states to the central
Appalachians, while Jose tracks northward, well east of the NC
coast, through early Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 926 PM Saturday...

1020+ mb surface high pressure extended from NY/PA southward down
the Appalachians. A resultant, rather moist low level NE flow
remained in place over central NC. Only scattered patches of high
based stratocumulus and mid level altocumulus remained as of late
evening from a day that was partly sunny. Patchy stratus and
ground fog may again develop, mainly over the Coastal Plain between
500 and 800 AM. However, it is not expected to become widespread or
dense. Temperatures are expected to follow persistence with high
pressure in control again tonight. Lows generally 60-65 north and 65-
70 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Hurricane Jose will continue the trek northward on Sunday off of the
Carolina coast to our southeast. No real impacts are expected to
central NC other than the potential for some cloudiness in the east
with a band of showers perhaps progressing through the eastern
portions of the CWA. A few wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be
possible Sunday afternoon and into the evening. For the western half
of the area, it may be hard to even realize clouds as things remain
confined to the east. All in all a nice end to the weekend with low
to mid 80s for high temperatures and lows Sunday night in the middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...

As hurricane Jose moves north and passes well offshore, the primary
impacts will be increased cloudiness in the east on Monday, and the
northerly flow will maintain a slightly below normal trend in our
high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the low 80s
across the north to mid 80s south both days.

It`s difficult to confidently identify any forcing which might
provide some convective focus from midweek onward. Initial weak
troffing at the surface and aloft in the mid week will give way to
high pressure in the midweek as the lingering surface trof is pushed
south of the area, Highs Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid
to upper 80s, with some very low 90s possible across the southern
tier.

Weak cool air advection in easterly behind the surface trof will
stall the airmass modification and cool highs a couple of degrees on
Friday, with the modestly cooler airmass settling in to
produce mostly lower 80s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 150 AM Sunday...

Circulation around an area of high pressure stretching north-to-
south from the eastern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians
and Hurricane Jose positioned well offshore of the NC coast will
maintain a low level nely flow into our region through the beginning
of the work week. This flow will advect enough moisture to result in
areas of fog and low clouds, primarily across the coastal plain
counties, during the pre-dawn/early morning hours for the next few
mornings. Through 13Z today, the highest potential for IFR/LIFR
conditions due to fog and low clouds will be in vicinity of KRWI,
while pockets of MVFR fog may occur in the vicinity of KFAY and
KRDU. VFR conditions should dominate in vicinity of the Triad
terminals.

Later this afternoon, isolated showers are probable across the
coastal plain though occurrence at KRWI appears minimal at this time.

This weather pattern should remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday.

For the middle of the work week, an area of high pressure will build
aloft in the wake of Jose, leading to a warm and dry period. As the
atmosphere dries out, the occurrence of late night/early morning fog
and low clouds in the coastal plain will decrease.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS