Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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335 FXUS62 KRAH 290706 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 305 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week. A cold front will slowly cross North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, then get hung up along the Atlantic coastline into the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 305 AM Sunday... Another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is expected today. Coverage should be similar to yesterday, with the potential for storms in all locations, but greater coverage to the west than to the east. The convection on both Friday and Saturday had several outflow boundaries, and any remnants of these boundaries will also serve as triggers for today`s convection. Without a change in air mass, highs and lows should be similar to yesterday`s, with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
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As of 305 AM Sunday... Minimal difference between today`s convection and Monday`s convection, although models are suggesting slightly less coverage along the Interstate 95 corridor. The Storm Prediction Center cites steep low-level lapse rates despite weak deep-layer flow/shear as the primary reason for a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms in the Triad during the afternoon. Expect one more day with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 105 PM Saturday... The most active period for shower/tstm activity during the long term will be from late Tuesday through Wednesday night as an upper short wave trough moves across the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast, dipping just far enough south to provide increased mid and upper level jet energy and assoc deep layer ascent. Otherwise, daily and mostly-diurnal pops the remaining days of the long term will be at or below climo chances, esp late in the week as subsidence and drier air moves in behind the aforementioned trough. Temps during the long-term period will continue to run above normal and hot, with perhaps the exception of Wednesday thanks to cloud and rain coverage that day which will tend to keep it a bit cooler. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1235 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Overnight, RWI is the most likely location to have visibility restrictions due to rain in the immediate vicinity of the airport on Saturday afternoon. RDU also cannot be ruled out for a visibility restriction - only a trace of rain was observed at RDU, but multiple inches of rain fell to the northwest in Durham. During daytime hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the highest confidence in coverage at INT/GSO. Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday. A cold front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday at most sites, pushing southeast to FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will decrease Thursday, with INT/GSO likely remaining dry and only a chance of precipitation at other sites. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Green