Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170548 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend from the Northeast states to the central Appalachians, while Jose tracks northward, well east of the NC coast, through early Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 926 PM Saturday... 1020+ mb surface high pressure extended from NY/PA southward down the Appalachians. A resultant, rather moist low level NE flow remained in place over central NC. Only scattered patches of high based stratocumulus and mid level altocumulus remained as of late evening from a day that was partly sunny. Patchy stratus and ground fog may again develop, mainly over the Coastal Plain between 500 and 800 AM. However, it is not expected to become widespread or dense. Temperatures are expected to follow persistence with high pressure in control again tonight. Lows generally 60-65 north and 65- 70 SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Saturday... Hurricane Jose will continue the trek northward on Sunday off of the Carolina coast to our southeast. No real impacts are expected to central NC other than the potential for some cloudiness in the east with a band of showers perhaps progressing through the eastern portions of the CWA. A few wind gusts of 15-20 knots will be possible Sunday afternoon and into the evening. For the western half of the area, it may be hard to even realize clouds as things remain confined to the east. All in all a nice end to the weekend with low to mid 80s for high temperatures and lows Sunday night in the middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday... As hurricane Jose moves north and passes well offshore, the primary impacts will be increased cloudiness in the east on Monday, and the northerly flow will maintain a slightly below normal trend in our high temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the low 80s across the north to mid 80s south both days. It`s difficult to confidently identify any forcing which might provide some convective focus from midweek onward. Initial weak troffing at the surface and aloft in the mid week will give way to high pressure in the midweek as the lingering surface trof is pushed south of the area, Highs Wednesday and Thursday will reach the mid to upper 80s, with some very low 90s possible across the southern tier. Weak cool air advection in easterly behind the surface trof will stall the airmass modification and cool highs a couple of degrees on Friday, with the modestly cooler airmass settling in to produce mostly lower 80s Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 150 AM Sunday... Circulation around an area of high pressure stretching north-to- south from the eastern Great Lakes into the southern Appalachians and Hurricane Jose positioned well offshore of the NC coast will maintain a low level nely flow into our region through the beginning of the work week. This flow will advect enough moisture to result in areas of fog and low clouds, primarily across the coastal plain counties, during the pre-dawn/early morning hours for the next few mornings. Through 13Z today, the highest potential for IFR/LIFR conditions due to fog and low clouds will be in vicinity of KRWI, while pockets of MVFR fog may occur in the vicinity of KFAY and KRDU. VFR conditions should dominate in vicinity of the Triad terminals. Later this afternoon, isolated showers are probable across the coastal plain though occurrence at KRWI appears minimal at this time. This weather pattern should remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. For the middle of the work week, an area of high pressure will build aloft in the wake of Jose, leading to a warm and dry period. As the atmosphere dries out, the occurrence of late night/early morning fog and low clouds in the coastal plain will decrease.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...WSS

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