Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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044 FXUS62 KRAH 191856 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM Thursday... A minor s/w traversing sewd across central NC this afternoon will exit our region prior to sunset. Rising heights aloft in the wake of this feature will strengthen the low level ridge over our area tonight. Thus, expect another starry night with temperatures falling through the 50s this evening, and into the 40s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Thursday... The strengthening high aloft and associated subsidence coupled with the sfc ridge will maintain a dry atmosphere across central NC Friday and Friday night. This dry air will support diurnal temperature swings of 30-35 degrees. The warming aloft in conjunction with the ridge at the surface will translate to mild afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with a few locations across the far south possibly reaching 80 degrees. While temperatures will be in the 70s late Friday afternoon, the dry air in place will permit temperatures to cool into the 60s early Friday evening, and solidly in the 50s by midnight. Minimum temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 should be common. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 255 PM Thursday... Mid-upper ridging now over the western Gulf will continue to amplify as it builds up and east across the Atlantic seaboard, to finally move off the coast late this weekend. Meanwhile, downstream lies a strong trof which is forecast to deepen as it moves east across the Plains, and we still have the potential for a cutoff low to separate from the trof over the Tennessee or the lower Mississippi valley Sunday night. If this low does indeed cut off (basically the GFS`s solution), it would enhance the chance for stronger, perhaps severe, convection in the Monday night/early Tuesday time frame. At the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states will gradually shift offshore, with return flow producing moisture advection and increasing cloudiness ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday night in the west, and spreading over central NC on Monday. Showers will become likely by late day Monday in the west, with likely PoPs spreading to the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain Monday night. Most of the convective activity will end by later Tuesday, with potential for some lingering instability showers in the cold air advection behind the front Tuesday night. Dry and cooler air will settle into place for midweek. Temperatures this weekend will be glorious for attending outdoor activities, with plenty of sun to accompany highs in the mid and upper 70s. Hihgs should also reach mostly mid to upper 70s on Monday with warm southerly flow to offset the lack of sun. Highs Tuesday should reach upper 60s to lower 70s, with the cooler airmass stalling highs in the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. Morning mins will be in the low and mid 50s through Tuesday morning, with mins in the 40s on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 135 PM Thursday... There is a high probability of VFR conditions to persist across central NC through 00Z Saturday as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the weather across central NC. The sfc high will drift offshore Saturday. The return low level flow Saturday night will moisten the low level air mass, leading to the potential for patchy fog with MVFR/IFR visibilities, primarily between 09Z-13Z Sunday. The approach and passage of a cold front Sunday night through Tuesday will enhance the probability of sub VFR parameters, primarily lower ceilings. The probability for scattered convection will also increase late Monday into Tuesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...mlm/MWS AVIATION...WSS

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