Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161842 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 140 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure build into NC from the northwest today through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1037 AM Thursday... WNW flow aloft behind the departing weak upper level trough has brought dry and sinking air across NC this morning. The skies were generally clear except in the lee of the Mountains where scattered to occasionally broken amounts of cirrus were noted. The latest satellite and RAOB data indicate just enough high level moisture in the increasing WNW flow to continue to allow the formation of scattered to broken cirrostratus in the lee of the Appalachians through early afternoon (partly sunny skies). Otherwise, sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s expected this afternoon. WInds will be increasing just a bit from the west to 10-15 mph, then turn more northwest late today as the secondary or dry cold front moves into the Piedmont. Brief CAA behind the front this evening will keep the surface winds stirring. Later tonight the winds will become calm as the high pressure over the upper Midwest approaches. Lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 30s expected. && .SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday night/... As of 225 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build quickly overhead Fri and off the coast Fri night. Heights will continue to rise modestly Fri with a flat to gently anticyclonic mid level flow, and a dry column in place. Increasing high thin clouds are expected Fri evening/night as subtle mid level waves pass overhead (hopefully these will be thin enough so as to not impede viewing of the Leonid meteor shower). With lots of sunshine Fri but a cool start, expect highs of 55-61. Milder lows Fri night of 34-38 under fair skies with the onset of return flow on the back side of the exiting high. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 140 PM Thursday... No changes made to longer range forecast. Models continue to highlight a trough and surface low moving across the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday with its associated surface front racing east across North Carolina Saturday night. Surface winds will be gusty as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph by Saturday afternoon. The front will spill over the mountains Saturday afternoon, with likely PoPs in the western Piedmont early Saturday night. These likely PoPs will translate quickly across central NC, reaching the Coastal Plain after midnight before ending towards sunrise Sunday. Cool and dry high pressure will settle into the area Sunday, with rather low amplitude upper troffing lingering Sunday through Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 1040 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are forecast with high confidence this afternoon through tonight. A few cirrus expected, mainly over western NC this afternoon. Surface winds will be westerly and shift to the northwest 10-15kt later this afternoon and evening, becoming calm tonight. Looking beyond 12z Fri, VFR conditions are likely through Sat. SW winds will increase to 15-25kt on Saturday afternoon into the evening ahead of the approaching cold front. MVFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected Sat evening/Sat night as a cold front moves through with a 4-5 hour period of showers. VFR conditions will return Sun through Mon as high pressure builds in. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...Badgett

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