Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211957 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 357 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level low across the coastal Carolinas will drift south tonight and then stall and slowly weaken on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low pressure system from Julia will meander near the South Carolina coast during the next few days. A moist, northeasterly low level flow will persist for much of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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As of 340 PM Wednesday... Latest surface analysis shows the remnant surface low from Julia located near the northern South Carolina coast. An upper level low is centered near the eastern portion of the North Carolina and South Carolina border. A persistent feed of deep layer moisture continues to rotate around the upper level circulation from the DelMarVa region into the western Carolinas with a large region of low-level moisture noted across nearly all of the Carolinas. While some breaks have been noted in the overcast across the coastal region and in the mountains this afternoon, most of central NC has had cloudy skies for much of the day. A large area of rain and rain showers across the northern coastal region of NC and southeast VA will try to advance southwest during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Convection allowing models and other guidance are consistent in pushing the precipitation southwestward tonight while the coverage and intensity of the precipitation gradually wanes. The best chance of rain will extend from Roanoke Rapids southwest to Rocky Mount and into the Triangle area this evening. A drier and more stable air mass across the Triad should preclude most precipitation with just a brief shower possible. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible across the central and southern Coastal Plains eastern Piedmont and Sandhills region through the early evening in a region of weak instability and mid level lapse rates of around 6 deg C/km. Otherwise, skies will be mainly cloudy overnight with a steady northeast wind overnight around 10 MPH with gusts to 15 to 20 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will range in the mid 60s to near 70. -Blaes
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 400 PM Wednesday... Not a lot of change in the weather pattern for Thursday and Thursday night but a gradual shearing and weakening of the upper low and filling of the surface low will decrease the moisture transport and limit precipitation coverage. While scattered showers and even a thunderstorm are possible again on Thursday, the coverage will be notably less than previous days with a focus across the Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont. Rainfall rates and intensity will be less than previous days as well. A widespread overcast is expected to start the day with some thinning and breaks in the overcast expected during the afternoon. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon will gradually diminish on Thursday evening with the loss of heating. Skies will become mostly cloudy again overnight with lows in the mid 60s to near 70. -Blaes
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 405 AM Wednesday... The airmass over NC will finally dry out Friday into Saturday as the deep moisture is shunted south and northwest flow aloft begins to increase. Thus will result in more sunshine and temps warming back above normal into the mid and upper 80s by Saturday. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough is forecast to take shape over the northeast US, with a cold front progged to surge down the East Coast and backdoor into NC by Sunday, with the potential for low clouds and light precip to break out behind the front. The ECMWF and GFS have been showing a decent dip in thicknesses with this front and the potential for highs in the mid 70s early next week. Interestingly the EC Ensemble and GEFS don`t show quite as strong of an airmass change, which may indicate that the front may not push deep into the Southeast states. In any event, temps are expected to drop back to around normal from Sunday-Tuesday before rebounding ahead of a midweek front. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 235 PM Wednesday... An upper level low pressure system will bring a period of adverse aviation conditions with sub-VFR conditions across central NC into Thursday. The moist circulation will bring periods rain and showers with reduced ceilings and visibilities into the area during the remainder of the afternoon and evening with the most widespread coverage across the KRWI and KRDU terminals. With a drier air mass in place, the showers will have a hard time moving into the Triad and affecting the KGSO and KINT terminals tonight. While the rain will diminish in coverage a bit overnight, MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR in most locations with periods of LIFR ceilings across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills after midnight. A northeast wind at 8 to 12 kts with gusts to near 20 kts will continue this evening and relax slightly overnight. Ceilings will begin to improve on Thursday morning becoming MVFR or better by midday. Looking further ahead...An upper-level low across the coastal Carolinas will slowly weaken on Thursday and Friday. A moist, northeasterly low level flow will persist into the first part of the weekend resulting in periods of adverse aviation conditions with sub-VFR ceilings, especially during the overnight and reduced visibilities in scattered showers. A cold front will push through the region late Saturday resulting in improving conditions for Sunday and Monday. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...BLAES

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