Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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639 FXUS62 KRAH 230101 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 859 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hot high pressure will remain across the mid-South and southern Appalachians through the weekend, then gradually weaken by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 343 PM Saturday... Dangerously hot conditions will continue across central NC through Sunday evening... Excessive Heat Warning now in effect for the cities of Raleigh and Fayetteville (counties of Wake and Cumberland) through Sunday at 700 PM... Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded to include much of the Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont through 700 PM Sunday... Heat advisory in effect for the rest of our region, including all of the rest of the area through through 7 PM Sunday... Mid-afternoon temperatures had reached 99 at Raleigh and Fayetteville, with heat indices of 107 and 113 respectively. Many areas, including the NW Piedmont were reporting temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices of 105 or higher. A SW breeze around 10 mph was helping a bit; although in the sun it feels like a blow torch. Actual highs of 97-101 still expected, with heat indices of 110-115 in the Warning area, 105-109 in the Advisory. Convection has been limited to isolated over the Piedmont, but there were several rather large thunderstorms over the ridges in the Blue Ridge near the low level trough, moving ESE. We will maintain a slight chance POP for isolated storms through the early evening, and keep the chance POP in the NW as some of the CAMS were showing this convection activity may develop further and drift toward the NW-N Piedmont through 700 or 800 PM. MLCapes of 2000 to 2500+ J/KG along with PW`s in excess of 2+ inches in the east suggest any storm will be capable of very heavy rain and strong, gusty wind to 45-50 mph. Heat Warnings and Advisories have been extended through the night as lows of 77-82 will not allow enough cooling potential for those outdoors or those with no air conditioning. Air movement is a must when nightly lows do not fall below 80. Upstream MCS activity may generate some threat of convection across the northern tier later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 343 PM Saturday... ...Warnings and Advisories continue through 700 PM Sunday evening... Another day of very hot temperatures of 96-101, with dew points near record highs (mid to upper 70s in the east) yields heat index values of 105 to 115, highest in FAY and Raleigh and Coastal Plain. These Warnings and Advisories have been extended through the night as lows of 77-82 will not allow enough cooling potential for those outdoors or those with no air conditioning. Air movement is a must when nightly lows do not fall below 80. Convection chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a weakening cool front approaches in the WNW flow aloft. At least scattered storms should bring cooling relief to portions of the region late day or during Sunday evening. Thunderstorm chances remain Sunday night. Lows generally a few degrees cooler with lower to mid 70s north and west, upper 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM SATURDAY... Cyclonic flow aloft initially over the Mid-Atlantic is progged to weaken by mid-week as a New England trough lifts northeast into the Atlantic and a central CONUS ridge extends eastward into the Appalachians, though shortwave energy may stall out over the Southeast in the process. Cyclonic flow aloft is progged to strengthen/return by mid/late week an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West/Rockies. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures and above normal precip chances early next week, transitioning to near normal temperatures and precip chances mid- week as flow aloft weakens (though confidence is lower than average given that shortwave energy may stall over the Southeast), followed by above normal chances for precip and below normal temperatures by the end of the week as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the region. -Vincent && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 840 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Convection has died off this evening. However, there is a very small chance we could see some redevelopment as convection moving across northern VA sinks southward, via outflow, late tonight. Confidence is way too low to include in the TAFs though. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will continue overnight through Sunday morning. Clusters of showers and storms will be possible late Sunday afternoon across all of central NC, first across northern portions of the area, then spreading south. Any storm will have the potential to produce gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the middle of next week, with the primary sub-VFR risk coming courtesy of showers and storms that will grow in coverage each successive day through Tue.
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&& .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 22 July | 103 2011 | 78 2011 23 July | 105 1952 | 78 2011 24 July | 101 2011 | 79 2011 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 22 July | 101 1926 | 77 2011 23 July | 99 1952 | 78 2010 24 July | 99 1914 | 78 2010 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 22 July | 107 1932 | 79 2011 23 July | 103 2011 | 79 1998 24 July | 105 1952 | 79 1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ010-011- 026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089. Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>009-021>025- 038>040-073>076-083-084.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BSD/BADGETT CLIMATE...RAH

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