Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201857 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 257 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level trough will move into central NC later today, then drift sewd through Thursday. Otherwise, an upper level high over the Ohio Valley and Tropical Cyclone Jose meandering off the southern New England coast will result in warm and dry conditions across central NC through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 929 AM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance that can be seen dropping sewd into the southern Appalachians, will drift slowly over central NC later today and tonight. This system interacting with a slightly unstable air mass owing to favored diurnal timing and resultant steep low-level lapse rates, will trigger a few showers and garden variety t-storms late today into the evening hours. High temperatures today will average a solid 5-8 degrees above normal, ranging from upper 80s across the NW Piedmont to lower 90s across the Sandhill and southern Coastal Plain. For areas that hit the 90 degree mark, this would mark the end to a 2-week sub 90 degree hiatus. Convection will be largely diurnally driven, so expect coverage to diminish during the evening. However, with the upper disturbance(s) drifting slowly ESE across the forecast area, can`t rule out a stray shower. Min temps in the mid-upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Wednesday... Thursday and Thursday night, our stretch of warm temperatures will continue, with afternoon highs in the 85-90 degree range. the heating of the marginally moist and slightly unstable air mass will support the development of scattered showers and storms, primarily across the Sandhills into the southern coastal plain. Bulk of the convection will dissipate with loss of heating though isolated showers/storms still possible through midnight near the South Carolina border. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 257 PM Wednesday... Friday through Sunday will feature fair weather thanks to ridging to our north, and the flow assoc with this ridge resulting in a drying trend during that time. Thus we can expected decreasing clouds on Friday, then mainly clear skies for the weekend. Models also show subtle low level thickness decreasing trend during this same time, so expect temps in the low to mid 80s, rather than the mid to upper 80s that we`ll see in the near and short term periods. Lows in the 60s. Still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the first half of next week related to the track and possible impacts with Hurricane Maria. Right now most models suggest that Maria will stay well to our east with little or no impacts on our weather across central NC Tuesday into Wednesday, other than perhaps a few passing showers on the far western periphery of the storm and perhaps a period of breezy conditions. However, there`s still plenty of time for things to change, so continue to stay tuned!
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 134 PM Wednesday... An upper level disturbance moving into the area during peak afternoon heating will support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially near KFAY where best destabilization is expected. Any convection should quickly weaken and diminish with loss of heating. Much like last night, patchy MVFR fog is possible area-wide overnight, with some brief periods of IFR restrictions at KRWI. On Thursday, there is a small threat for a shower or storm near or south of KFAY. Otherwise, outside of some early morning fog/stratus, VFR parameters should persist at the TAF sites Thursday through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL

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