Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261849 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. IN THE NEAR TERM. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL DRIVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPEPR MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. TONIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY ADVECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES...NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH LIFT AND/OR INSTABILITY TO GENERATE/SUPPORT ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. TOWARD DAYBREAK...MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO SKIRT JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING MID LEVEL TROUGH. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE. THE RESULTANT RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SE WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY WETTER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. DEPENDING UPON EXTENT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...THIS MAY RESULT IN PATCHES OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS 66-70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE GLIDES THIS SYSTEM EAST-SE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO LIE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NC NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR INITIATING/SUSTAINING CONVECTION AS TO OUR NW AS OUR AIR MASS NOT AS MOISTURE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THUS...POP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG- SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. CONTINUED HOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. IT SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID BY MONDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S- LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM PATTERN PROMINENTLY FEATURES A LOWER MS VALLEY RIDGE CENTERED NEAR AR/OK ON TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC. RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NC FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCE OF A MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LIKELY STALLS NEAR OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY AND IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE WEEKEND. -BLAES && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER 06Z MONDAY...POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG SHOULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING KRWI AND KFAY. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OUR VICINITY. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE FAVORS AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...WSS

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