Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271734 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/... AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY... RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW. A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO (10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10 DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED. DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT EAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY... EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5- 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID 20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY... FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45 RANGE. SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER FORECASTS. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS... THEN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NE ZONES (KRDU-KRWI) THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...BADGETT

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