Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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822 FXUS62 KRAH 182011 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 301 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/... As of 301 PM Saturday... A breezy and very mild night ahead with a chance of showers (mainly after midnight)... Southwest gradient winds out ahead of the approaching cold front were gusty this afternoon. They have been gusting to 30-35 mph at times. Temperatures will continue to be very mild to warm through the evening given that the region will be in the warm sector. The cold front is expected to cross the mountains toward midnight, then sweep across our region between midnight and sunrise tonight. Winds will still be gusty until the narrow band of showers moves through. Then winds will become more westerly and diminish to 10-20 mph. Current radar trends indicated a couple of line of showers/storms associated with the approaching mid/upper level trough and associated cold front. The front was still located from Indianapolis to Memphis at late afternoon where it had more moisture and lift to work with. However, the dynamics are forecast to move well to our NW and N overnight, with only the low level boundary to deal with for central NC. Dew points or the amount of low level moisture will steadily increase, but only reaching 50-55 dew points. Therefore, moisture and instability along with dynamics for needed large scale lift will be very limited east of the Mountains. Thunder is not expected. Expect a narrow band of showers to push across the region between midnight and 600 am. QPF on the order of 0.10 to 0.25 in the far NW, with only trace to 0.10 amounts expected in the south and east. Temperatures will be elevated overnight due to the SW winds, cloudiness, and the frontal passage conditions. Lows may hold in the 50s in all but the NW where some upper 40s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM Saturday... Skies will be clear quickly early Sunday morning. The warm start to the day will partly offset the CAA. However, highs will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s NW to SE. NW winds at 10-20 mph are expected with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will be diminishing Sunday evening and night. Clear skies will bring lows in the lower to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the northern Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Saturday... Mid level ridging will keep the area rain-free for Monday into early part of Tuesday. From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some rain to the local area. Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off the southeast coast. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in with any rainfall. A rather flat west to east flow develops Friday night and Saturday with dry and seasonable weather for central North Carolina. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 1245 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will dominate at all central NC sites well into the evening. The only issue will be the SW winds at 15-20kt, with gusts to 30-35 kts through 06z/Sunday. Due to the well mixed conditions and winds to the surface to 35kt, low level wind shear is not expected at this time. After 04z/tonight expect a band of light showers with possible MVFR CIGS and VSBYS will move east across the region through 10z. Only a period of 2-3 hours of light showers are expected at any TAF location. Once the showers move through, winds will decrease to 10 to 15kt from the west, with gusts decreasing to 20kt. A return to VFR conditions will occur quickly after 10z/Sunday. WNW winds at 10-20kt will occasionally gust to 25kt Sunday. Winds will become light Sunday evening. Looking beyond 18z Sun: VFR conditions are likely Sunday night through Tuesday as high pressure moves over the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklinton AVIATION...Badgett

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