Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170848 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 348 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures continue to fall behind a cold front that begins to drop southward through central NC this morning, likely to stall in proximity of the South Carolina border. This front will lift northward as a warm front into the southern counties of central NC late Saturday and Saturday evening, with another associated cold front expected to sweep across the area late saturday night. High pressure takes over on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Saturday... As surface high pressure moves off the coast a cold air damming wedge is expected to set up over central NC today but the best isentropic lift won`t get going until around 12z. This will bring in clouds through the morning. Ceilings are expected to come down through the day to at least IFR levels with some LIFR mixed in. Light rain or drizzle will begin late morning into the early afternoon. Rain rates aren`t expected to be high and only about a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain will fall with the highest totals in the NW Piedmont. Temperatures will struggle with 40s north of US 64 and low 50s south. The 24 hour temperature change will be a whopping 25-35 degrees cooler depending on location. A large gradient is expected across the southern tier bringing more uncertainty to the temperature forecast. Another disturbance will form to the southwest and track over the area on Saturday night resulting in a developed low pressure by the time it moves offshore. When it goes, it will take the wedge with it helping to bring an end to the clouds and rain but that will likely not happen until Sunday morning. Overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Saturday... As continental high pressure moves in on Sunday, expect rain to stop and skies to clear. This will be a fast moving transitory high that will end up moving east of the area and offshore by Sunday night. For all the chilly temperatures on Saturday, Sunday will feature highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s across the area. Winds will begin to swing around to southerly by Sunday evening setting up the beginning of return flow that will exist early next week. Sunday night lows in the 40s with highest temps in the southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... ...Unusually warm temperatures may shatter records Tuesday and Wednesday of next week... The records for daily highs and for daily record high minimum temperatures were included for February 20 and 21 (Tuesday and Wednesday below). These are the most likely days that will see plenty of new records. The end of the weekend will bring clearing skies Sunday, as the much drier air mass is expected to build over the region during the afternoon. Highs should warm readily into the 60s with light and variable winds. This high is forecast to move quickly offshore late Sunday. A warm front will push northward into the area late Sunday night and Monday. Some areas of light rain and showers are expected, with the highest POP in the NW zones again late Sunday night and Monday morning. Afternoon clearing from the south on Monday will lead to highs moderating back into the 60s, except some upper 50s north. The main storm track is forecast to remain to the west and north of central NC this week. This occurs as a very strong and unusual subtropical ridge is forecast to set up just off the south Atlantic coast, most likely waxing Tuesday and Wednesday. However, even late week when changes occur and the ridge does flatten a bit, it appears that cooling will be short lived and tied to fairly progressive surface high pressure areas tracking to our north. This pattern is more typical of April or early May (or even June given the forecast strength of the upper ridge off the SE coast. Sensible weather will be for only a slight chance of lingering drizzle (associated with lingering CAD) Monday morning, otherwise increasing warmth and humidity Tue-Wed. leading to highs potentially in the lower 80s (except upper 70s NW). Lows in the 60s mid to late week will also likely set records. Temps are expected to back off some by Friday, but that will come with a backdoor front and a cooling NE flow instead of anything close to "arctic" intrusions. Rain chances remained tied to the storm track, west and north of our region, with limited QPF this side of the Appalachians through Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Some MVFR ceilings creeping into the northeast this evening. These could make their way into KRWI but uncertainty is high enough that will keep out of the TAF for now. NNE winds at 5- 10 kts will continue through the overnight hours with a few sporadic gusts to 15 kts possible. As a CAD wedge builds in tomorrow expect conditions to steadily deteriorate with light rain beginning around 15z and ceilings dropping through MVFR levels to IFR/LIFR by late afternoon or early evening on Saturday. Ceilings will drive the aviation conditions with MVFR level visibilities also possible throughout the afternoon. Conditions will return to VFR in the Triad very near to the end of the TAF period with points south and east to follow later. Long term: Sunday will see a return to VFR conditions before another disturbance move in for early next week followed by an extended period of southerly return flow featuring a summer-like pattern with high moisture content and the potential for periodic sub-VFR conditions. && .CLIMATE...
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RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM/WSS NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Ellis CLIMATE...KC/Badgett

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