Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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606 FXUS62 KRAH 220540 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 130 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push slowly southward through the area tonight. Cool high pressure will build into the region from the north Wednesday through Thursday night, then shift off the East Coast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 130 AM Wednesday... The back edge of the line of showers and thunderstorms had reached into the Coastal Area as of 130 AM, with only residual stratiform rain following. A meso-low was located just NW of Wilmington, moving quickly east along with the convective outflow boundary. Areas of light rain extended back to near Statesville, Winston- Salem, and Charlotte. We will continue to carry POP for this stratiform rain through 400 AM for most of the Piedmont, and 600 AM over the Coastal Plain. Additional rain should be less than 0.10 of an inch. With the main push of very dry and cold air still over PA and MD, it will be 6+ hours before it reaches northern NC. Lows upper 40s north to mid 50s south with mostly cloudy skies.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... Expect a clearing trend in the morning as a drier airmass advects into the region from the north, with clear skies during the afternoon and evening. Cold advection is expected to persist for the majority of the diurnal heating cycle on Wed as Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic from the NW. Expect highs much cooler than today, in the mid/upper 50s N/NE to lower 60s S/SW. Lows Wed night may be tempered by increasing mid/upper level cloud cover after midnight. Will indicate lows ranging from the upper 20s (rural and low-lying areas east of I-95) to lower/mid 30s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 243 PM Tuesday... With the cP airmass centered over the area Thursday and Thursday night, temperatures through the period will average a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal. A potentially opaque canopy of high clouds Thursday morning should diminish in the wake of the exiting NW flow disturbance, allowing for afternoon sunshine. Highs 50 to 55. High level moisture/cirrus blow-off advecting downstream from the closed cyclone over the Central US could produce fair to partly cloudy skies Thursday night, which could impede radiational cooling a bit. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. The modified Canadian parent high will shift east and offshore on Friday, with southerly return flow allowing for a quick moderation into the 60s on Friday and then into the 70s by Saturday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft will keep it dry through the day on Saturday. Strengthening warm moist air advection on the eastern periphery of the closed mid/upper level cyclone moving east-northeast into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes will result in increasing pops in the form of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. The most recent 12z/21 GFS has trended farther north than previous runs, and is significantly less wet than previous runs. As such, will keep pops at chance, and highest in the west. If this more northern track solution is realized, Saturday night and Sunday could end up being mostly dry across central NC, with mostly in the way of clouds across the area. Additionally, with the low farther removed from the area, resultant weak forcing will not bode well for any severe weather. Highs Sunday in the 70s. On the heels of the dampening wave moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night, another shortwave trough, of lower amplitude, will skirt quickly east across the Central US on Monday and will approach the area late Monday night and into the day on Tuesday. Between these two systems, expect to see a lull in precip chances on Monday, with rain chances ramping back up again Monday night and Tuesday. Continued mild with highs in the 70s. Lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
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As of 135 AM Wednesday... A return to VFR conditions is expected through 12z as the areas of rain and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS shifts east and offshore. A cold front and leading edge of strong continental polar high pressure will surge Swd through central NC early today. This will result in strong and gusty NNE winds developing between 12z and 15z, lasting through 20z or so. WInds will die off later this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions are forecast Thursday into Saturday, with a low probability of a few hours of MVFR to IFR ground fog at KRWI and KFAY Friday and Saturday around sunrise.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Badgett/MWS

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