Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 080730 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 227 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 227 AM MONDAY... ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS. THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE, IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS. FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25- 30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 227 AM MONDAY... BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 PM SUNDAY... COLD AND MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...THOUGH AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN THE RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MAINLY A DRY PATTERN...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD...ON TUE AND LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY WILL OCCUR AS THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE DOWN THE EAST COAST ON TUE...OWING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACCOMPANYING A CIRCULATION (NOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES) INTO THE TROUGH BASE/ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND AMIDST STEEP LAPSE RATES AS THE COLD UPEPR TROUGH PIVOTS EAST... ENHANCED INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS --AND A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/ FLURRIES...OR WORST CASE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-- WILL RESULT ON TUE. OF POTENTIALLY GREATER CONSEQUENCE...BUT STILL WITH LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD...THE EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY RELAX AND ALLOW A BRIEF EPISODE OF LOW-MID LEVEL WAA ACCOMPANYING A CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COLDER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...COLDEST WED-THU AND AGAIN ON SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM MONDAY... FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KT... WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...BADGETT

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