Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250906 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 406 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY... OVERVIEW: A POSITIVELY TILTED /INCREASINGLY SHEARED/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AT 07Z WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (CROSSING THE I-77 CORRIDOR AT 07Z) WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W H5 HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THROUGH 12Z: SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT (STILL LOCATED WEST OF THE YADKIN AT 07Z) NEAR THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR IS DEVELOPING ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKING THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...APPARENTLY IN ASSOC/W SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY. EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE DISTINCT NNE-SSW ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 08-10Z AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND STRONGER DPVA ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES (OR MERGES INTO) THE RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE. REGARDLESS... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE FRONT ~12Z. TODAY AND TONIGHT: EXPECT CLEARING BY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE /HEIGHT RISES/ COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHEARED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING ARAS) TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY... CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE IN ASSOC/W SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHS SIMILAR ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS FRI NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER COASTAL NC AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MIDWEST MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE FAIR-WEATHER WITH TEMPS STILL 10+ DEG ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL RETURN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHILE WAVES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEG COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...BUT LITTLE CHANGE FOR NIGHT-TIME LOWS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY DAMP WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT OVERRUNS THE COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY COOL DURING THIS TIME AS THE SFC BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH...ALLOWING THE COOLER AIRMASS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MIDWEEK AND BEYOND: A BRIEF BREAK IN THE DAMP WEATHER MAY COME ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES...AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FOR THE LATE-WEEK PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY/WSW AT 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE...EVENTUALLY DECREASING TO ~10 KT DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. -VINCENT
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&& .HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 400 PM WEDNESDAY... THERE HAVE BEEN THREE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS (>1 INCH TOTAL) GENERALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAYETTEVILLE AREAS EAST TO THE COAST. AS A RESULT...RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURES PRIOR TO THE RAIN OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS WERE UNIFORMLY HIGH THROUGH A 200 CM DEEP COLUMN...WHICH PROMOTES FASTER RUNOFF AS WELL AS A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF RAINFALL-TO-RUNOFF FROM TODAYS RAIN. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME AREAS... PARTICULARLY IN WAKE COUNTY... RECEIVING OVER 2 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER TOTALS FROM 4 PM THROUGH 3 AM WILL BE MAINLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MANY OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IN THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA HAVE SEEN INCREASES AS A RESULT OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY. IN WAKE COUNTY...CRABTREE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AT OLD WAKE FOREST RD AND IS LIKELY HIGH IN MOST OTHER PLACES. THE NEUSE RIVER AT CLAYTON IS CURRENTLY IN FLOOD...WITH AT LEAST ONE SECTION OF THE GREENWAY NEAR NC 42 UNDER WATER. THE NEUSE AT SMITHFIELD HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY TODAY AND WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE NEUSE RIVER AT GOLDSBORO WILL LIKELY FLOOD FRIDAY OR SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RISES AT THE OTHER TWO LOCATIONS UPSTREAM. OTHER LOCATIONS THAT MAY FLOOD IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS INCLUDE FISHING CREEK AT ENFIELD AND THE TAR RIVER AT TARBORO. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...VINCENT HYDROLOGY...BADGETT/KC

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