Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250554 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 154 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drop south into the region through the day today, stalling across the Carolinas on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 800 PM Monday... Uneventful evening, convection-wise. Moist and much more unstable airmass over the southeast would be conducive to showers this evening given a modicum of lift, which does not appear to be forthcoming. Hence will lower PoPs to ~20% and confine these to a single tier of counties from Scotland to Wayne, and further reduce/eliminate PoPs after midnight. Otherwise steady as she goes...mostly clear with mins 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Monday... The main portion of the upper level trough across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic shifts east and lifts on Tuesday and Tuesday night while a shear axis lays down east-northeast to west-southwest from near Cape Hatteras to central GA. The latest GFS and EC both try to close off a portion of the shear axis over eastern GA and the SC coast. At the same time, the associated cold front drops south into NC on Tuesday afternoon and evening and then stalls toward the NC and SC border by daybreak Wednesday. This is a more aggressive and southward solution than recent model runs. This trend would tend to confine precipitation further south and east and could result in additional cooling across our northern tier with the possibility of a layering of additional stratus and then some clearing near the VA border. Not ready to jump all in on this solution, but have trended the forecast that way. Highs on Tuesday will range in the lower 90s but could be cooler near the VA border if the cooler air is aggressive. Lows Tuesday night will range in the 68 to 75 range. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Monday... Surface high pressure over the northeastern CONUS will extend into the region on Wednesday as a frontal zone lingers south of the CWA. This will be our first break from 90 degree temperatures as highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. This high will remain over the area on Thursday as well although max temperatures will climb into lower 90s. Although diurnal showers and a possible thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, these days should be fairly dry. By Friday, a developing low pressure system, spurred on by a shortwave upper trough, will cross the mid-Atlantic states and move off the coast. As it does so, an east-west oriented front will sag southward towards central NC. Timing in both the GFS and ECMWF solutions is fairly similar and it looks like enhanced precipitation will begin at some point Friday afternoon/evening and continue through the weekend. Highest chance for rain will lie across eastern areas Sunday and Monday. After a brief stint back in the 90s on Friday, temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80s through Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 150 AM Tuesday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions expected throughout much of the period, however there is a chance for sub-vfr cigs and visbys at KFAY and lesser so at KRWI during the pre-dawn hours. Any sub-vfr conditions should clear up after sunrise. Broken VFR cigs may stick around for much of the daytime hours in the far southeast (KFAY), with scattered cloud cover expected elsewhere. A cold front will approach and move into the region from the north today, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible along and ahead of it. Terminals that experience storms could see brief periods of sub-vfr conditions, otherwise expect VFR conditions to dominate through the period. Looking ahead: Expect mainly VFR conditions to dominate, though periods of sub-vfr conditions will be possible during the aft/eve should showers/storms develop over a terminal. Chances for convection will increase through the period. There will be an increasing chances for early morning sub-vfr stratus to develop late in the week and into the weekend.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through Thursday or Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...RE/Franklin AVIATION...KC EQUIPMENT...BLAES

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