Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 192103 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 358 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build overhead late tonight and Monday. The high pressure will shift offshore Tuesday. Low pressure may develop off the Florida coast late Tuesday, and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Cold air advection stratocumulus were only over the Mountains of NC this afternoon. Otherwise, the skies were sunny across the state. Winds continued to be up this afternoon in to the 15-20 mph range. A 1028 MB surface high pressure was centered over Texas, with a strong CAA pattern with NW flow over the eastern third of the United States. The high pressure is forecast to move ENE to a position over the southern Appalachians of TN/NC/GA by late tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient is forecast to really weaken over our region mid to late evening. This will allow the winds to weaken to less than 10 mph by mid-evening, then becoming nearly calm overnight through daybreak. Good to excellent radiational cooling in the very dry air will allow lows to bottom out into the 27-32 range in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... High pressure is expected to be overhead Monday into Monday night with very dry air in place to the surface. Low level thicknesses do increase some over the western Piedmont, with a light southerly return flow late Monday night. Most of this return flow will likely remain above the near surface layer given the expected near surface temperature inversion. Sunny skies are expected Monday with highs of 55-60. Clear skies are expected Monday night with lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s NE ranging into the mid 30s SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM Sunday... The medium range portion of the forecast will be dominated by a trough across the eastern portion of the country, with a series of disturbances tracking across both the northern tier of the country and the Gulf Coast States/Southeastern U.S. Temps on Tuesday will be highly dependent on how much clouds and if we see any precip. For now will keep temps near to slightly below normal, generally ranging from the mid to upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE. The best chance for rain is expected to be on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, albeit a low chance pop for some light rain. Quick moving northern stream disturbance is expected to move through the area on Wednesday morning ending any threat for precip, with surface high pressure building back into the area. However, another disturbance is expected to lift northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico and track along the baroclinic zone off the Southeast U.S Thursday into Friday. Medium range have trended further eastward with the track, resulting in dry conditions across central NC. However, given the lack of good run to run consistency will hold onto a slight chance of rain across the southeastern half of the area on Thursday into Thursday night, with temps turning colder by Thursday, with highs in the 50s, with some upper 40s. High are expected to rebound to near seasonal norms by Saturday, generally in the upper 50s to 60s. Yet another northern stream trough is expected to move across the area Saturday, resulting in another cool down for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1210 PM Sunday... VFR conditions are expected with high confidence through 18Z/Monday. Surface winds from the NW at 10-15kt will become light and variable tonight and Monday. Looking beyond 12Z/Monday, generally VFR conditions are forecast through mid-week with high pressure in control. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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