Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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021 FXUS62 KRAH 270642 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 244 AM Sat EDT May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will be located over the Piedmont this afternoon through Sunday. An upper level disturbance will cross the region this afternoon and early evening, followed by another disturbance Sunday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 244 AM EDT Saturday... There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Westerly flow in the mid levels will be increasing to 40-45kt this afternoon from the mid-Mississippi valley east across NC/VA. At the surface, low level moisture will be on the increase with surface dew points forecast to reach into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. With ample sunshine expected, strong heating will result with temperatures to reach the 80s by noon, and the upper 80s by peak heating. Resulting MLCapes on the order of 2000+ J/KG will result. Any approaching, hard to time disturbance in the increasing westerlies will combine with the aforementioned parameters to support the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over the western and northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain. Considering the expected favorable elevated mixed layer (EML) and the degree of instability expected, some of the thunderstorms will become strong with at least isolated severe storms expected. The main hazards are expected to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Just about all the convection allowing models depict scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with the main area of concern over areas from the Triad to the Triangle, with lesser chance of severe storms from the Sandhills to the Southern Coastal Plain, which is expected to be displaced from the higher severe weather parameters. A few of the storms may linger into the evening, otherwise a lull in the convection is expected tonight. However, areas to our west will have to be watched in the fast flow aloft as storms upstream may be able to make it east of the Mountains due to the lingering instability and strong steering flow. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to near 70 (where it does not rain). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 AM Saturday... Isolated severe storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. While the main focus for severe convection may be more over Tennessee/Kentucky, a few storms or even short lines of storms may cross the Mountains and develop SE of the Blue Ridge, into the Piedmont during the afternoon and evening. The development to the SE should be encouraged by strong afternoon heating and resultant instability again along and east of the Blue Ridge, with a forecast maximum of instability over central NC. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s along with temperatures forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s, will result strong instability over the NC/VA Piedmont east through the Coastal Plain. This will be a favorable environment for strong to locally severe storms again Sunday. Convection is expected to weaken and decrease Sunday night as the region gets convectively overturned and/or nighttime stabilization develops. Lows generally in the 65-70 range again expected. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... As of 300 PM Friday... A short wave trough over the TN valley Sunday morning will move east and across the Carolinas by late day. Scattered showers/tstms are expected along and ahead of it, developing over the mountains around mid-day and moving east across our cwa during the late afternoon into early evening. With 2000+ J/kg cape and 40+ kt of deep layer shear forecast in the models, the environment would appear to support at least isolated strong to severe tstms. Given the position of an old boundary along and north of hwy 64, look for the best chance for such activity to be across the northern half of our CWA. Short wave ridging behind the aforementioned short wave will provide a break in the weather Sunday night into Monday morning, but the next short wave moving through the longwave trough centered over the Great Lakes will move across the Carolinas late day Monday into Monday night, helping to push a weakening cold front across our area. This system will provide the next chance for showers and tstms Monday afternoon through Monday night. For the rest of the long term period, will keep pops near or above climo each day as the aforementioned cold front will stall across the region and a series of mid level short waves embedded in the broad cyclonic flow move across the region. Above normal temps forecast through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 AM Saturday... A disturbance aloft will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most areas this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through 06z/Sunday. Outlook: A series of upper level disturbances along the frontal zone will nudge the front south into the area Sunday. There be a chance of mainly late day storms on Sunday, and again on Monday through Wednesday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west and potentially stalls over the area. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Badgett

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