Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KRAH 262329
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
An upper level ridge will extend across the region through the
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...
Tonight, low level moisture and instability axis extends roughly sw-
ne in vicinity of the highway 1 corridor. With the core of the
mid/upper level anti-cyclone covering the northern piedmont and
foothills, subsidence over our northern counties will likely inhibit
any convective development. Thus, best shot of isolated convection
will remain over our southern piedmont counties and possibly the
sandhills. This convective threat will end around sunset. Otherwise,
expect clear-partly cloudy skies with overnight temperatures in the
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Friday...
Core of mid/upper level ridge drifts northward into central
Appalachians/northern Mid-Atlantic during this period. Resultant
easterly flow over central NC Saturday will yield in modest moisture
advection. Still, this added moisture coupled with strong heating
will lead to a slight/moderately unstable atmosphere, supportive of
isolated-scattered convection in the afternoon-evening hours. Based
on position of a weak sfc trough, and the weak upslope flow, expect
highest threat for convection to occur over the coastal plain
(associated mainly with the inland moving sea breeze), and the
western piedmont. With the core of the hot air to our north, should
see afternoon temps lower a couple of degrees from this afternoon
values. Highs Saturday low-mid 90s (still a solid 5-8 degrees above
Bulk of convection will dissipate within an hour or two of sunset.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies with overnight temps in the low-
Sunday, a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere will persist over
central NC. However, lack of a trigger aloft will limit convective
development with most of the convection confined to the south and
east sections of the forecast area. Similar to Saturday, bulk of
convection will dissipate with loss of heating. Slow weakening of
mid/upper level ridge will result in high temps near 90-lower 90s.
Low temps Sunday night generally in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM Friday...
Medium range models appear to be coming into a bit better agreement
on showing the weak tropical low located between the northeastern
coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas shifting west-northwestward
across FL and into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico/near the western
FL coast this weekend into early next week before slowly lifting
north and eventually northeastward. However, there is still a lot of
uncertainty with regard to the timing of this system and timing of a
s/w trough approaching/amplifying in the northern stream mid to late
week (which will play a key role in our precip chances mid to late
Further northward across our latitude, a weak mid/upper level low is
forecast to move westward late Sunday into Monday and into eastern
portions of the Carolinas. This will provide eastern/southeastern
portions of the area with a chance of mostly diurnal showers and
storms on at least Monday. The mid level low is forecast to linger
across eastern portions of the area on Tuesday, before being
suppressed by a approaching northern stream s/w trough.
However, with still a significant spread in some of the models and
ensembles with regard to the track and timing of the possible
tropical system and potential moisture possibly pulled northward and
across eastern portions of our area we will keep a chance of showers
and storms across eastern portions of the area through midweek. As
the northern trough further amplifies and shifts eastward across our
area an associated cold front will move through the area on Thursday
into Friday (with a possibly some showers and storms areawide
accompanying the front). High temps are expected to generally be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, with mid to upper 80s on Friday. Lows
are expected to be near 70 to the mid 70s. However, if the track
and/or intensity were to change with the aforementioned tropical
system, then High temps may be lower midweek.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...
24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions prevailing across the area and
should continue to do so overnight. Models indicate some brief
drops into the MVFR range are possible closer to sunrise but
confidence is fairly low at this time and have left any restrictions
out of the TAFs at this time. Some scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at all locations on Saturday
afternoon. Most of these storms should remain sub-severe. Winds will
remain northeasterly on Saturday at 5-10 kts. Some scattered to
broken ceilings around 4 kft will be prevalent during the afternoon
Long Term: Low rain and thunder chances will prevail for the next
several days keeping conditions mostly dry with some isolated to
scattered convection during the afternoon hours, particularly across
the east. Otherwise mostly VFR conditions are expected.