Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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750 FXUS62 KRAH 190032 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 731 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will approach from the west today and cross the southeastern U.S. tonight through early Sunday. High pressure will build into our region behind the exiting low pressure system Sunday night and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM Saturday... Still looks like a very minimal precip event for central NC into this evening. The mid level ridge axis over eastern NC will continue to shift ENE and offshore through tonight, as the mid level low now near Memphis fills and deamplifies a bit as it tracks to the E then ESE into the Carolinas overnight. Both moisture and forcing for ascent out ahead of this low are rooted in the mid and upper levels, including a band of decent upper divergence, mid level DPVA, and mid level height falls of 50-70 m, acting on a band of enhanced elevated moisture aloft noted on water vapor imagery now streaming through SC and western NC. But lift in the low levels is negligible, with fairly dry air below 700 mb, so the precip band now running from KY through SW NC and W SC/E GA will have a tough time generating measurable precip at the ground as it progresses to the NE. Have made minor tweaks to earlier update, retaining low chance pops (for measurable light rain) over the SW CWA for a few hours late this afternoon into early evening, trending to just scattered sprinkles elsewhere for a few hours during the evening as this precip band translates to the NE, with much of the precip evaporating before it hits the ground. Skies will continue trending W to E to mostly cloudy this evening, then trending back to partly cloudy overnight as the dry slot now pushing into W GA shifts over our area. Expect mild lows mostly in the low-mid 40s tonight, with expectations of rebounding dewpoints as the mid level low shifts into the area, preceded by passage of a weak surface trough through the area. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Quiet weather with very few clouds and warm temps. A light surface flow from the NW will persist Sun as high pressure builds in from the west. We`ll likely see a few clouds in the morning as a vorticity lobe dives into the base of the shortwave trough over the area. But as this trough pushes ESE and offshore, rising heights and warming aloft will bring generally clear skies. Thicknesses should remain well above normal, similar to today`s readings, indicating highs from around 70 to the lower 70s. Lows once again mostly in the lower to mid 40s Sun night under clear skies. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday... The forecast for the long term will be characterized by temperatures well above normal for the middle to late part of February. Monday begins with a very strong upper level ridge over the area and high pressure at the surface leading to mostly clear skies and temperatures into the 70s. This will continue through Tuesday but with increasing clouds as a frontal system approaches. Wednesday a dry frontal passage occurs but temperatures stay warm with return flow around high pressure in the western Atlantic. This will keep high temps in the 70s for the remainder of the work week. Uncertainty with the timing of a system next weekend could mean either a wet Saturday and a dry Sunday or vice versa. Either way our next chance for some decent rainfall will be next weekend. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence. An upper level disturbance will move across central NC this evening into early Sunday morning. However, with such a dry low level airmass in place ahead of the disturbance only very light rain and/or sprinkles along with cigs of 6 kft or above area expected with the system. Skies will begin to quickly scatter/clear off behind the disturbance, with mostly sunny skies expected for Sunday. Sporadic southwesterly wind gusts of up to 20 mph will be possible will be ahead of the system as well. High pressure will build into the area on Sunday, with winds out of the west-northwest to northwest, with possibly some gusts to 20 mph. Outlook: VFR conditions will dominate through at least Mon evening. Model differences then crop up regarding a passing mid level trough through the region, reducing confidence, but there is at least a chance of sub-VFR conditions late Mon night/Tue morning, and again late Tue night/Wed morning and Wed night/Thu morning as we get into moist SW flow.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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