Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270123 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 922 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY... TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST... IN AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER COASTAL SC. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO NUDGE IN... AND THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF I95 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS IN THIS MOISTER AIRMASS... WHERE CAPE IS PROGGED TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG. TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY CLIMBED TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80... AND ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S. MORNING STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN FROM THE US1 CORRIDOR EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN IN LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA... AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S... LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY... RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETROGRESS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST WESTWARD TO THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE BLOCKED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESENT A SURFACE PATTERN WITH AN APPEARANCE MUCH LIKE A DAMMING SCENARIO SANS COOLER AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL LIFT/FORCING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE DUE TO WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION...REACHING 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WEST...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH MID 80S EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MIDWEEK AS ERIKA OR HER REMAINS WILL POTENTIALLY BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE. THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AND WILL KEEP ITS IMPACT OUT OF THE EQUATION FOR NOW TO AVOID SEE-SAWING THE POPS EACH MODEL RUN. REGARDLESS...MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE 80S...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES... WITH MORNING STRATUS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THURSDAY AT KFAY/KRWI). FURTHER WEST AT KGSO/KINT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWERS OR TWO DURING THE TAF PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. WRT THE THREAT FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE SUB-VFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A MOIST GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME THURSDAY... WITH CIGS AGAIN SLOWLY LIFTING THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION) BY MID AFTERNOON (~20). OUTLOOK: THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL WASHOUT/DISSIPATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS... OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...77/30

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