Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200127 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 927 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper level low over will drift slowly east and out into the Atlantic tonight. A hot upper level ridge will build east from the Plains to the Carolinas through Saturday, before breaking down Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 920 PM Wednesday... No convection across the area at this time and skies have begun to clear overhead. GSO sounding this evening was very dry and that is expected to be the case overnight. Since dry conditions prevail at all levels, no fog or low stratus is expected overnight tonight. Winds will be calm or light and variable. Low temperatures overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 208 PM Wednesday... Heat and heat indices will start to become more of an issue Thursday as the upper ridge builds east. Mostly sunny to sunny skies are expected with only about a 10 percent chance of a storm at any one location. The increase in sun and lack of cloudiness will help temperatures reach the mid 90s (except lower 90s NW) Thursday. The dew points are expected to range in the mid 60s NW and 67-70 in the east during peak heating. This would give heat indices of 100 to 103 in the east, and 95-98 in the NW. A heat advisory is not anticipated Thursday. However, that should change Friday. Lows Thursday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s (as the dew points slowly come up). && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 208 PM Wednesday... An upstream ridge (over the lower MS river valley) and a downstream ridge (offshore the SE coast) extending into the Carolinas Fri/Sat will de-amplify Sun-Mon as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West, cyclonic flow aloft strengthens across the OH/TN valley and Mid-Atlantic, and a closed low retrogrades westward along the Gulf coast. Fri-Sat: Expect temperatures several degrees above normal Fri/Sat, with heat indices ~105F (primarily Triangle south/east), depending on surface moisture/dewpoints. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the area Fri/Sat. With westerly flow aloft over the central Appalachians and a lee trough extending southward through central VA/NC in the midst of moderate diurnal destabilization, expect a potential for scattered convection during the afternoon and evening hours Fri-Sat, though activity could be suppressed over eastern portions of the state depending on the strength/orientation of the offshore ridge. Sun-Wed: Above normal temps/humidity may persist into Sunday, though chances for convection will also increase as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over/upstream of the Mid-Atlantic. With an unseasonably complex synoptic pattern over the mid-latitudes, uncertainty increases significantly by early/mid next week. At this time, will indicate near normal temperatures and near climatological chances for convection Mon-Wed, in assoc/w a synoptic pattern generally characterized by ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS. -Vincent && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 710 PM Wednesday... 24 hour TAF period...Isolated shower/storm near KINT will weaken and dissipate with loss of heating at or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, zone of subsidence in the wake of the broad upper low/trough moving off the SE coast will result in generally dry VFR conditions are expected tonight through Thursday. A lee side trough east of the will support light winds through the period. Outlook for Friday through Monday... Generally VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday. Scattered PM thunderstorms may return Sunday and Monday with associated MVFR to IFR conditions. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 20 July | 102 1942 | 76 1981 21 July | 102 2011 | 78 1932 22 July | 103 2011 | 78 2011 23 July | 105 1952 | 78 2011 24 July | 101 2011 | 79 2011 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 20 July | 100 1977 | 75 1986 21 July | 102 1926 | 76 2011 22 July | 101 1926 | 77 2011 23 July | 99 1952 | 78 2010 24 July | 99 1914 | 78 2010 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 20 July | 104 1932 | 80 1996 21 July | 105 1932 | 79 1977 22 July | 107 1932 | 79 2011 23 July | 103 2011 | 79 1998 24 July | 105 1952 | 79 1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...CBL/Badgett CLIMATE...RAH

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