Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 162358 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level ridge over the Mississippi River valley will build eastward over the Carolinas Friday into early Saturday. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday through Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 650 PM Thursday... A band of high based stratocumulus and altocumulus extended from southern Ohio SE across portions of NC this evening. Additional cloudiness was noted upstream headed SE. The forecast for tonight hinges on how much of the cloudiness holds together in the NW flow aloft, which will have a direct impact on lows. The latest Hi-Res models show varying amounts of cloudiness as this NW-SE oriented plume of moisture gets shunted eastward tonight across VA/NC. We will maintain a forecast that incorporates the latest data/guidance which suggests minimal chance to the previous thinking. Lows 30-35 expected - but we will evaluate again in a few hours to see how the increase in cloudiness is progressing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Thursday... Weak height rises will continue on Friday as a strong ridge builds toward the eastern US, ahead of an upper low lifting out of the southwest US. Other than some high clouds approaching late Friday night, no sensible weather is expected, with a warming southwest wind developing and guidance in good agreement on upper 50s to mid 60s for high. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Thursday... Main story for the long term forecast will be a very strong upper level ridge that will result in an extended period of very warm conditions. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal for the entire long term period. This translates into highs in the upper 60s to low 70s every day with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. These temperatures are normally seen in late March and early April. On the sensible weather front the first chance for any precipitation will be on Saturday night into Sunday morning as a very weak system moves in from the southwest. As this happens, a coastal low begins to develop to the southeast and cuts off a lot of the moisture into central NC. This will limit any rain to a few hundredths of an inch or less. This will result in minimum impact over central NC with skies clearing out by Monday afternoon. Later in the week, there is some disagreement as to the track of a southern stream low pressure system that will move across the Gulf of Mexico and possibly influence the weather over central NC Thursday and Friday of next week. The track of the low is more southerly in the ECMWF solution however, and thus the area remains dry during this time period. That being said, the latest model run of the ECMWF has indeed shifted a bit northward and although still remains dry, is closer to the GFS solution than the previous run, lending some credence to the wetter GFS solution. Will keep slight chances in for this time period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence, as surface high pressure slides across the Southeast U.S. This will allow northwesterly winds this evening to become light and variable overnight, before becoming southwesterly on Friday, with possibly some gusts of up to 20 mph. Otherwise, we will see some mid and high clouds cross the area over night, with mostly sunny skies expected by mid Friday morning onward. Outlook: Aside from a small potential for isolated showers assoc/w an upper level disturbance crossing the area Sat night, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...BSD

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