Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211042 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 645 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low pressure area will develop along a weak surface front over upstate South Carolina today. The low pressure and a cold front will move offshore tonight. Colder and dry high pressure will build south into the region Tuesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 AM Tuesday... Only residual light showers or sprinkles exist this morning over portions of central NC. A few light showers may continue to bring some trace amounts of rain, mainly over the western zones through 900 am or so. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this morning, becoming partly sunny late morning into the afternoon. A cold front to our north is forecast to drop SE into our region this afternoon and evening. It appears that a pre-frontal trough will develop from update SC eastward along the NC/SC border. This is where the heating today will combine with surface moisture convergence to support convective development. Models again have continued to suppress this convective potential southward (now mostly across far southern NC and SC) late this afternoon and early evening. We will continue to carry the highest POP south of the Triad and Triangle areas, mainly across areas from Charlotte and Albemarle to Fayetteville and Rockingham. The highest POP according to the latest Hi-Res Convection allowing models should develop between 300 PM and 500 PM... spreading east and weakening or diminishing by early to mid-evening in the SE. Surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s will combine with highs in the lower 80s across the southern tier of NC to produce MLCapes around 1000 J/KG. WNW flow in the mid layers at 30-35kt suggest organized thunderstorms in the corridor of the expected surface trough. One or two of these storms may become marginally severe. It appears the main threat of severe storms will be south and southwest of our region. We will maintain the current wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, but focus on the southern tier of counties for a few strong storms. For the Triad to the Triangle area to Rocky Mount, expect a chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. However, all the convective parameters are keying in on areas from Asheville to Charlotte to Fayetteville south into SC for any strong or isolated severe thunderstorms. Highs today warmest SW-S (lower 80s) and coolest N-NE (mid 70s). Evening showers/storms in the SE will clear out this evening, with mostly cloudy skies in the low level NE flow developing behind the front. A low to medium probability of lingering light rain will be forecast near the front in the south and east overnight. Lows mid 40s northern Piedmont ranging into the mid 50s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 AM Tuesday... Strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the north Wednesday. The drier and colder air will be slow to advance southward into all our region until late afternoon and Wednesday night. Skies will become mostly sunny in all but the SE zones where cloudiness may linger much of the day. Highs mid 50s north to mid 60s SE. Clear and colder conditions are expected Wednesday night with lows 28-32 or near freezing north and west, and 35-40 SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 AM Tuesday... Thursday through Friday: Cold high pressure located over the Mid- Atlantic will extend south/southwestward into central NC on Thursday, before moving offshore Thursday night into Friday. This should result in dry conditions for the end of the week, with a warming trend commencing on Friday. However, the cold surface high will allow for well below normal temps on Thursday and Thursday night, with perhaps another freeze for portions of the area on Thursday night (especially northeast). Expect high temps on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 50s, with lows temps on Friday morning generally in the lower to mid 30s, with a few locations in the usual cold spots dropping into the upper 20s. High Friday are expected to be around 60 NW to the mid to upper 60s SE. Friday night through Monday: A mild pattern is expected for the weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level low moves east- northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging over the region to start the period will shift eastward and offshore. This will allow for increasing warmth and moisture to transport into central NC for the weekend, lingering into early next week as the main frontal zone will remain to the north/northeast of central NC. Expect high temps will be in the 70s during this period, with even a few locations toughing 80 late weekend/early next week, while low temps are generally expected to be around 50/in the 50s. With increasing southwesterly initially and the aforementioned disturbance passing to the north of the region expect we may see periods of showers and some storms from Saturday afternoon onward. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
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As of 645 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Generally VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. Weak low pressure is forecast to track east along a nearly stationary boundary, that is expected to be over southern NC and northern SC this afternoon and evening. This will bring a chance of a period of MVFR CIGS and VSBYS with a shower or thunderstorm, mainly between 21z and 03Z. This chance may linger through 06Z or so at KFAY. A cold front will move south through the region after the low pressure shifts offshore tonight. Generally VFR conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. Long Term: Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period with high confidence Thursday into Friday. The probability increases for MVFR CIGS by Saturday with a low chance of showers.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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