Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 262007 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AS SKIES STAY CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM. MOSTLY LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED (WITH MAYBE A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES). THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIP OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER MODIFICATION AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FIRST TO ARRIVE) AND INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LEAD DISTURBANCE PROJECTED TO ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALIGNED WSW-ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...MAINTAINING A DRY AIR PRESENCE. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ANEMIC DURING THIS PERIOD SO APPEARS LIFT GENERATED ALOFT FROM WAA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST. INITIAL PATCHES OF RAIN WILL GO TO MOISTEN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER. THUS...BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. SUNDAY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ADEQUATELY MOIST TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. LEAD PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO CROSS JUST WEST-NW OF OUR REGION IN THE MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH RAIN COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE SE. WILL TREND POPS FROM LIKELY NW THIRD TO CHANCE FAR SE. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY PRECIP AT THIS TIME WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. FAVOR BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S NW TO LOW-MID 60S SE). MORE EXTENSIVE/LONGER DURATION RAIN WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES. SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GAINED SOME CONSENSUS ON A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED PERTURBATION AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE TO AFFECT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE FROM A 140+ UPPER JET LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...PLACING CENTRAL NC IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO TREND POPS FROM CHANCE IN THE EVENING TO HIGH LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 222 AM FRIDAY... FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER...WITH THE SYNOP PATTERN NOW FEATURING FLOW THAT`S MORE WESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...AND DRIER...THANKS TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 90M FROM THEIR PEAK AROUND 1375M JUST BEFORE FROPA SUNDAY EVENING...TO AROUND 1285M BY EARLY THURSDAY...A SOMEWHAT GRADUAL PROCESS AS A 1055MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY...FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...TO HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 BY MID-WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER 30S) BY MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY (BUT STILL LIGHT). SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE MID/UPPER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. OUTLOOK...EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...KRD

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