Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021106 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 705 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S- AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES. ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67- 73. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY... WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU NIGHT 67-72. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHER WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE THREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLY URBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST... WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWS SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) AND GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 705 AM WEDNESDAY... THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH AFTER 18Z. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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