Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271949 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 350 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will persist over the region through the weekend. An upper level disturbance over the Atlantic will then drift west and linger over the Southeast states early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM Saturday... Latest meso analysis depicts the best instability covering most of the Piedmont and parts of the sandhills. As scattered storms that initiated along the I-40 corridor between the Triad and RDU, expect some intensification with a few strong/severe storms possible through sunset. With DCAPE values 1200-1400 J/kg over the western and southern Piedmont, potential for wind gusts 45-55kts with the stronger storms. In addition, frequent lightning will occur. With loss of heating, scattered convection will dissipate around sunset with only a few showers probable until midnight over the southern Piedmont. After 04z, expect pockets of low clouds to develop and overspread the region with considerable cloudiness expected by daybreak Sunday. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 350 PM Saturday... Surface high pressure centered over southern New England will strengthen and nose southward into the Carolinas Sunday. This sfc feature will extend across our Piedmont counties. Associated subsidence should initially limit mixing which may allow low clouds to linger until late morning/mid day. Otherwise, presence of sfc ridge should inhibit convective development in the afternoon hours. Over the southern coastal plain and the sandhills, modest moisture advection courtesy of an upper level low off the SC coast coupled with afternoon heating should trigger scattered convection. Expect the greatest concentration to occur immediately se of our region though 30-40 percent coverage still possible over parts of our se counties. Anticipated cloud cover Sunday morning will limit sunshine. this should to afternoon temps not quite as hot/oppressive as the past couple of afternoon. High temps upper 80s-lower 90s. Again, most of the convection will dissipate with loss of heating. Could see another round of overnight low clouds, though it may be limited to the se half of the forecast area. Low temps upper 60s nw to the low/mid 70s se.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 226 PM SATURDAY... Monday through Wednesday: The models still indicate a mid- to upper- level low over the western Atlantic will move westward along the southern periphery of the high from Bermuda to the east coast of the U.S. through early next week. The high will weaken as the low approaches and stalls along the Carolina coast through Wednesday. At the surface, some weak ridging lingers over western NC as the low sits just off the coast. Surface winds will be primarily northeasterly. Chances for showers and storms should remain limited to the southern and southeastern portions of Central NC. Highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s expected. Thursday through Saturday: An upper level trough will amplify over the eastern U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday, when it`s expected to absorb the stalled coastal low. The trough axis should then shift offshore late in the week. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to slide southward into Central NC Thursday night or Friday, although the extent of southward progression is still fairly uncertain. Highest confidence of frontal passage in the northeast and lowest in the southwest. As a result, best chances for convection will be with the front as it moves into and stalls over the Carolinas, though that will also depend on the diurnal timing. The temperature forecast gets a bit more difficult with the aforementioned front, but for now expect a decrease in highs from near 90 degrees on Thursday into the mid 80s Friday and Saturday with lows generally in the mid 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1255 PM Saturday... There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through Sunday night. The exception will be isolated- scattered showers and storms through 00Z and associated MVFR ceilings and visibility. The stronger storms will also be accompanied by gusty sfc winds up to 40kts. The scattered convection will be most probable near KFAY between 18Z-22Z...and near and south of the Triad terminals between 20Z and 00Z. The bulk of convection will dissipate with loss of heating, though a shower threat will linger until midnight south of the Triad. After 04Z, should see pockets of low clouds develop and eventually overspread most of central NC with IFR/LIFR ceilings highly probable at most TAF sites between 09Z-14Z Sunday. VFR conditions expected to prevail by 16Z Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across central NC through most of the upcoming work week. There will be a good chance for early morning IFR/low end MVFR conditions each day due to low clouds and/or fog. In addition, there will be scattered showers and storms each afternoon, with the highest concentration expected in the vicinity of KFAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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