Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211943 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 343 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Deepening low lifting up the mid Atlantic coast will drag a surface front and attendant second wave across the area this evening. A strong upper level low pressure area will swing over the region tonight through Monday, bringing continued unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 330 PM Saturday... Closed upper low and attendant mid/upper level trough over the Ohio and Tn Valleys will intensify as it moves slowly southeastward over the region. At the surface, deepening low lifting up the mid Atlantic coast will drag a surface front through the area this evening. In response to the upper trough moving into the region, a secondary wave of weak low pressure will develop along the front this evening and will move off the southern NC coast Sunday morning. DPVA, H5 falls on the order of 60 meters, and weak sfc moisture convergence along the sfc wave tracking south of Highway 64 will support scattered showers tracking west to east this evening and through the overnight hours, with a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening as scouring out of low-cloud deck has allowed for sufficient insolation to support weak destabilization (500-1000 SBCAPE). While weak instability will limit storm severity, good deep layer bulk shear of 40-50 kts this afternoon/evening could still support an isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing strong wind gusts and small hail. lows overnight in the mid 50s NW to lower 60 se.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
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As of 330 PM Saturday... Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday as a deep upper low, 2 to 3 SD below normal, becomes centered over northeastern NC by Sunday night. DCVA and steepening mid-level lapse rates coincident with peak but tempered daytime heating will support scattered showers. Expect highest POPS invof of the upper level core and deepest moisture across the NE coastal plain/piedmont. Temperatures will continue to run below normal underneath the anomalous negative height anomalies. Highs ranging from upper 60s/near 70 northeast to mid 70s southwest.
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&& .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... As of 230 PM Saturday... Monday and Monday night: To start the day off on Monday, a closed upper low is progged to be over northeast NC and it will make its way eastward/northeastward throughout the day. As such, shower chances will continue, but will likely stay confined to the northeast half of the forecast area. Any precip is expected to come to an end Monday night as the upper low slowly pulls away from the region. Temps will remain below normal given the proximity of the upper low and associated cloud cover/precip, with highs expected to be in the lower 70s across the northeast and the mid/upper 70s further to the southwest. Overnight lows should fall into the mid 50s. Tuesday through Saturday: Conditions should dry out by Tuesday as the upper low pulls further away and shortwave ridging builds over the region. However, one model is now showing one last piece of energy rounding the backside of the departing upper low and triggering some precip across the northeast. Given the lack of other model support, have kept the forecast dry for now but will keep a close eye on it. Otherwise, the ridge that will build in, will keep the main storm track to our north, resulting in mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. There are indications that the ridge may weaken some towards the end of the forecast period, allowing an uptick in mostly diurnal type convection. However, there is some disagreement among the models with regard to this and therefore, will just show an increase in clouds and bring in a slight chance of precip. Temps will gradually moderate through this time frame, from mostly lower 80s on Tuesday to mid/upper 80s by for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/... As of 158 PM Saturday... 24 hour TAF period: Largely in response to strong insolation, lingering CAD over the region continues to weaken. Ceilings have lifted to either MVFR or low-end VFR across the area, with most areas expected to lift to low-end VFR by 21z. As the mid-level trough begins to move over the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to re-develop across central NC between 21z-06z, resulting in local IFR conditions. More widespread IFR conditions will develop later tonight due to low clouds and some fog, esp invof areas that received heavier rain. The low ceilings/stratus will be slow to lift through the day on Sunday morning, with the potential for MVFR ceilings to persist at eastern/northeastern NC(KRDU and KRWI)until late in the afternoon. Meanwhile...western and southern most terminals could see VFR conditions return by mid morning. Beyond 18z Sunday: the risk for sub-VFR conditions with scattered showers will continue through at least mid-day Monday as a closed low gradually moves south across eastern NC. VFR conditions expected to return by Tuesday and remain for the mid-week period as the closed low moves east and short wave ridging moves over our region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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