Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 242030 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY... WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW 70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT... DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM MONDAY... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 250 PM MONDAY... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND... HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 115 PM MONDAY... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO VFR EARLY THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8- 15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND 11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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