Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 160725 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 325 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east across the region this morning and reach the coast by late this afternoon. Cool high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist into the first part of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Monday... ...Not a washout at all but a good chance of a brief period of rain today with mainly light precipitation totals... The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians at 06Z. The southwesterly flow ahead of the front has produced mild early morning temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Regional radar imagery shows a couple of bands of rain showers associated with the front stretching from near Washington DC southwest to near Atlanta. One area of showers was located along and just ahead of the front and the other, more significant area of rain trails the front. The cold front will push across the state reaching the Triad just prior to daybreak, the Triangle during or just after the morning commute and Interstate 95 by midday. Despite the moist surface conditions ahead of the front, warm mid-levels across the region has resulted in a stable air mass with no CAPE and poor low and mid-level lapse rates across central NC. Precipitable water values are modest and range in the 1.2 to 1.6 range. Still, higher resolution convection allowing models suggest the coverage of the showers will pick up a bit as they move across central NC. This appears to be in response to a disturbance moving across eastern TN, northeast AL and northwest GA this morning. Expect scattered showers and areas of light rain across the Triad for the morning commute with the rain spreading into the Triangle area during the mid morning to midday hours. The showers will arrive in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Despite the uptick in shower coverage, rainfall amounts will be light and generally range around to under a tenth of an inch. The showers will be short in duration ranging from 1 to possibly 4 hours in length with all of the precipitation shifting to the coastal region by late afternoon. Sky conditions will improve somewhat quickly behind the front with perhaps a stubborn broken mid cloud layer persisting into afternoon underneath a veil of high cirrus. Gusty winds from the north at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 20 and perhaps 25 MPH are expected this afternoon behind the front. Highs today will be complicated by the precipitation, the daytime arrival of front and the cloudiness, but expect highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s to be realized this morning with temperatures steady or falling during the afternoon. Cold advection will force temperatures down well into the 40s tonight. A stirring north to northeast wind tonight will keep temperatures from bottoming out. Lows will range from 40 in some of the colder spots across the interior Piedmont to the mid 40s southeast. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... The upper-level trough axis pushes east of central NC Tuesday morning with increasing heights on Tuesday night. Cool high pressure builds into region on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Mainly clear skies are expected with perhaps some cirrus clouds, mainly in east Tuesday morning. High temperatures will range in 63 to 69 range, generally about 5 degrees below normal. Lows Tuesday night will be chilly as good radiational cooling conditions and a chilly air mass will result in lows in the upper 30s to around 40 although some of the cooler locations across the Piedmont could have lows in the mid 30s and perhaps some patchy frost. Latest NAM MET guidance provides lows of 39/37/34/33 at Greensboro/Raleigh/Burlington/Roxboro respectively while the GFS MAV and EC MOS are several degrees milder. May include a mention of isolated frost across the Piedmont in the HWO for Wednesday morning. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... The long term forecast is on track. Dry high pressure will remain entrenched across the region throughout the long term forecast period. Seasonably cool temperatures with lows mainly in the 40s and highs near 70 will gradually warm through the week with lows reaching the 50s and highs in the upper 70s on Sunday. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 AM Monday... A cold front moving across the higher elevations of the southern Appalachians at 06Z will push east across central NC this morning into the early afternoon hours bringing increasing and lowering clouds along with a broken band of showers and patchy light rain. MVFR ceilings with rain showers and areas of MVFR visibility restrictions are expected as the front moves through with conditions persisting for a few hours behind the front. A brief period of IFR conditions are possible in some embedded heavier rain showers. The most adverse aviation conditions are expected in the 09Z-13Z time range in the Triad and the 12Z-17Z time range in the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Winds will become northerly at around 12kts with gusts of 20 kts behind the front with a few gusts as high as 25kts. Conditions will improve to VFR between 13-15Z in the Triad and 16-20Z in the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain. Northeast winds of 8 to 12kts with mainly clear skies are expected this evening. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...surface high pressure will build into the region tonight and Tuesday and persist through the end of the work week resulting in fair weather and VFR conditions. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.