Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 220645 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A strong upper-level low pressure area will settle over the area today through Monday, producing unsettled weather. Warmer and drier weather will follow from Tuesday through late week as the upper low moves offshore and high pressure builds across the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 940 PM Saturday... Primary forecast change with this update was to adjust toward reality, raising short term pops across the southern CWA, and reducing them across the north. Latest surface map shows the strong low off Delmarva and weaker low over the southern Piedmont, connected by a frontal zone that is slowly sliding to our SE. Storms were only able to achieve marginal severity late today into this evening given poor mid level lapse rates which hindered updraft growth, although the current scattered storms over the south will continue to feed on marginal instability and a favorable deep layer shear environment in place as they track toward the SE over the next few hours. Otherwise, the loss of heating and subsequent stabilization behind this band of convection should limit coverage and upscale growth of any subsequent showers or storms. However, there remains a fairly potent vorticity maximum diving ESE into the southern Appalachians, and this feature acting on lingering low level moisture (the result of weak low level flow) could spawn additional isolated showers and perhaps another storm or two into the overnight hours, diminishing late as the southern Piedmont low sinks to our south and southeast and the DPVA departs. Low level moisture will deepen further over the northern and eastern CWA as it advects in from eastern VA on the back side of the offshore low, so will maintain cloudy skies there through daybreak, while areas in the southwest and western CWA should see a trend to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows 55-61, with dewpoints dropping a bit across the south as cooler air spills in. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM Saturday... Unsettled weather will continue on Sunday as a deep upper low, 2 to 3 SD below normal, becomes centered over northeastern NC by Sunday night. DCVA and steepening mid-level lapse rates coincident with peak but tempered daytime heating will support scattered showers. Expect highest POPS invof of the upper level core and deepest moisture across the NE coastal plain/piedmont. Temperatures will continue to run below normal underneath the anomalous negative height anomalies. Highs ranging from upper 60s/near 70 northeast to mid 70s southwest. Monday and Monday Night: Coming soon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 245 AM Sunday... Through the work week: The upper level low and attendant trough will quickly move away from the area, allowing the upper level ridge to build into the region. Similarly at the surface, high pressure will slowly build into the region and strengthen off the southeast U.S. coast. As the low races off to the NE Tuesday night and the high strengthens off the Carolina coast, surface winds will become southerly. With the surface high and upper level ridge over the region skies will be mostly sunny/clear mid week with moderating temperatures. Weather will remain dry, likely through Thursday, with a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms returning late in the week. Models still differ on whether there will be precip or not Thursday night through Friday. As a result, will keep chances limited to slight. Highs in the low to mid 80s Tuesday will moderate into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday, where they will remain through the end of the week. Similarly for overnight lows, upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday night, increasing to mid 60s for Wednesday night onward. For the weekend: A fair amount of uncertainty exists for this time period, thus confidence is not high. Will keep the overnight periods dry with slight chance for showers and storms in the afternoons. Temps will remain fairly steady with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 715 PM Saturday... 24 hour TAF period: A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will move east through the area between 00z-06z, resulting in local IFR conditions. Model guidance suggests the re-development of low clouds/stratus and possibly some fog between 06 to 12z, especially across central and eastern terminals(KRDU,KFAY,KRWI). Drier air advecting into the area behind the a surface front is expected to preclude stratus development at KINT and KGSO. The low ceilings/stratus across central and eastern areas will be slow to lift through the day on Sunday morning, with the potential for MVFR ceilings to persist at eastern/northeastern NC(KRDU and KRWI)until late in the afternoon. Meanwhile...western and southern most terminals could see VFR conditions return by mid morning. A deep upper low moving over the region will bring scattered showers across the area on Sunday, with greatest coverage expected across the east/northeast invof of the upper low. Beyond 00z Monday: The risk for sub-VFR conditions with scattered showers will continue through at least mid-day Monday as a closed low gradually moves south across eastern NC. VFR conditions expected to return by Tuesday and remain for the mid-week period as the closed low moves east and short wave ridging moves over our region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...CBL

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.