Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170053 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 753 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will drop southward across central NC late this afternoon and this evening then stall in proximity of the South Carolina border. This front will lift northward as a warm front into the southern counties of central NC late Saturday and Saturday evening. Another cold front will sweep across the area late Saturday night, followed by high pressure for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... Sfc cold front currently crossing the northern piedmont-northern coastal plain, proceeded by a band of rain showers. Temperatures drop a solid 10-12 degrees immediately behind the front. This sfc feature should lie close to Fayetteville-Wadesboro line prior to 00Z, and stall across South Carolina after 06Z. Expect patchy light rain to occur behind the front, in advance of the 850mb trough which will advance east across the region later this evening. Expect the bulk of the patchy light rain to diminish in coverage after 04Z. A dry air ridge to our north will begin to nose down after 06Z. This may result in partial clearing near the VA border towards daybreak. Low level cold air advection will persist through the night, leading to overnight temperatures that should vary from the mid-upper 30s across the far north to the upper 40s/near 50 near the South Carolina border. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Friday... A fast upper level flow aloft will aid to transport an upper level disturbance quickly eastward from the southern rockies this evening to the TN Valley Saturday afternoon. The approach of this system will induce a sly flow a few thousand feet above the cool stable sfc air mass Saturday morning. Increasing isentropic upglide will lead to an increasing threat for light rain across the Piedmont by late Saturday morning, and areawide Saturday afternoon and evening. This widespread rain coupled with a cool ely sfc flow will result in a very cool day with temperatures only recovering 4-7 degrees from the early morning temps. The passage of the upper level disturbance Saturday night will drag a weak sfc front across our region late Saturday night. This will cause the light rain to diminish west-to-east late Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Min temps will vary from the mid 30s far northwest to the low-mid 40s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday... ...Record warmth may shatter records Tuesday through Wednesday... The records for daily highs and for daily record high minimum temperatures were included for February 20 and 21 (Tuesday and Wednesday below). These are the most likely days that will see plenty of new records. The end of the weekend will bring clearing skies Sunday, as the much drier air mass is expected to build over the region during the afternoon. Highs should warm readily into the 60s with light and variable winds. This high is forecast to move quickly offshore late Sunday. A warm front will push northward into the area late Sunday night and Monday. Some areas of light rain and showers are expected, with the highest POP in the NW zones again late Sunday night and Monday morning. Afternoon clearing from the south on Monday will lead to highs moderating back into the 60s, except some upper 50s north. The main storm track is forecast to remain to the west and north of central NC this week. This occurs as a very strong and unusual subtropical ridge is forecast to set up just off the south Atlantic coast, most likely waxing Tuesday and Wednesday. However, even late week when changes occur and the ridge does flatten a bit, it appears that cooling will be short lived and tied to fairly progressive surface high pressure areas tracking to our north. This pattern is more typical of April or early May (or even June given the forecast strength of the upper ridge off the SE coast. Sensible weather will be for only a slight chance of lingering drizzle (associated with lingering CAD) Monday morning, otherwise increasing warmth and humidity Tue-Wed. leading to highs potentially in the lower 80s (except upper 70s NW). Lows in the 60s mid to late week will also likely set records. Temps are expected to back off some by Friday, but that will come with a backdoor front and a cooling NE flow instead of anything close to "arctic" intrusions. Rain chances remained tied to the storm track, west and north of our region, with limited QPF this side of the Appalachians through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 753 PM Friday... A 3 to 4 window of light rain in the wake of the cold front pushing south of the area can be expected through 06z. However, conditions should remain predominately VFR with cloud bases between 5 to 8kft. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR from south to north across the area between 15 to 18z on Saturday, with intermittent light rain and drizzle. Conditions are expected to further deteriorate Saturday evening, lowering to IFR to LIFR with the potential for areas of dense fog to develop as drier air aloft spreads over the area. Aviation conditions will briefly improve Sunday then deteriorate again Sunday night into Monday as another low pressure system affects the area. Mostly VFR parameters expected Tuesday and Wednesday, though brief periods of MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility due to late night/early morning fog is possible. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 77 1976 62 1990 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/16 76 1927 58 1990 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/16 82 1989 62 1935 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...CBL CLIMATE...KC/Badgett

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