Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 100818 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 317 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level trough and accompanying surface cold front will cross the Carolinas early this morning. High pressure will build into the area and extend across the region through Monday. An arctic cold front will drop southeastward through the area early Tuesday, ushering in frigid air for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /today through tonight/... As of 220 AM Sunday... ...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice remains in effect for the northern Piedmont until 10 AM this morning... The dry cold front has just pushed through the NW Piedmont, on pace to clear central NC by morning, taking the remaining cloud cover over the eastern CWA with it. Dewpoints behind the front are dropping through the 20s to the upper teens, with a wind shift to WNW, and both of these factors should result in a drying out of the damp ground which resulted from the precipitation of the last couple of days. Nevertheless, with light snow cover persisting over much of the northern Piedmont and temps dropping with the increased cold air advection post-front, lingering areas of ice on roads and sidewalks will remain a concern this morning, and the advisory will be maintained. Otherwise, the influx of colder air with a dry and stable column will ensure a trend to mostly sunny skies areawide by sunrise, holding through the day. Thicknesses are projected to be 40- 45 m below normal, indicating chilly highs of 38-45 despite the abundant sunshine. A fast-moving batch of scattered to briefly broken mid clouds, a product of a strong vorticity lobe passing by just to our north overnight, will bring a period of partly cloudy skies tonight, mainly across the north half. Lows 22-30. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Temps will rebound Mon as surface winds back to southwesterly on the north side of a sprawling surface high spanning the Gulf of Mexico, FL, and off the SE coast. The column will remain dry and very stable aloft with shallow mixing, so still expect below normal highs from the mid 40s N to low 50s SE under mostly sunny skies. Clouds of the mid and high variety will be increasing late Mon through Mon night within an accelerating southwesterly steering flow, with a potent wave dropping SE over the Upper Midwest then E across the Ohio Valley to the N Mid Atlantic states Mon through Mon night, taking another dry cold front southeastward toward our area. Skies should trend to partly cloudy Mon night, with the thickest clouds across the north, and this should temper radiational cooling a bit. Lows 30- 35. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Sunday... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday which will put a damper on our brief warmup. Highs will reach the upper 40s to low 50s but it isn`t until later in the evening when the colder airmass begins to really filter in. Lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 20s. Continued cold air advection on Wednesday will see highs only reaching the mid 30s to lower 40s as this will be the coldest day of the long term. Lows Wednesday night again in the low to mid 20s. For the end of the week, a warming trend will gradually push high temperatures up to the 50 degree mark across central NC as high pressure builds over the deep south and moves south of the Carolinas and off of the east coast. There is some uncertainty between the GFS and the ECMWF in the handling of a low pressure system that forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves northeastward over the Carolinas. The current EC scenario has the low well to the east and staying offshore, while the GFS has a much later timing with a westward track that would bring us some precipitation late in the weekend. With uncertainty so high will keep the forecast dry through Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 1255 AM Sunday... While INT/GSO are seeing VFR conditions, MVFR conditions will dominate at RWI/RDU/FAY through 08z. But these will give way to VFR conditions as a cold front crosses the area, moving off the Carolina coast early this morning. Generally clear skies and surface winds from the W or WNW will persist today, as high pressure starts to move into the area. VFR conditions will hold through tonight with diminishing winds becoming light from the SW. Looking beyond 06z Mon, VFR conditions will hold at all sites through the next several days, with high pressure dominating, interrupted by a dry cold front passage Tue night that will cause winds to shift back to W and NW. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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