Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270224 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1024 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY... INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY WARM HERE WITH WINSTON- SALEM STILL REPORTING 80 DEGREES WITH ALL OTHER STATIONS IN THE 70S. 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE CREPT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT OTHERWISE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S...RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW SHOWERS COMING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FREE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW GIVEN THE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY... A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE GLIDES THIS SYSTEM EAST-SE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM PROJECTED TO LIE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NC NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR INITIATING/SUSTAINING CONVECTION AS TO OUR NW AS OUR AIR MASS NOT AS MOISTURE AND ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE. THUS...POP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN A SMALL THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG- SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH LATE MONDAY...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. CONTINUED HOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. IT SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID BY MONDAY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S- LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... THE LONG TERM PATTERN PROMINENTLY FEATURES A LOWER MS VALLEY RIDGE CENTERED NEAR AR/OK ON TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY. HEIGHTS INITIALLY RISE A BIT FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO AND STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK WAVE OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ITS EVOLUTION WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CENTRAL NC. RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NC FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CHANCE OF A MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY REDUCED CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY THURSDAY. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LIKELY STALLS NEAR OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 90 ON FRIDAY AND IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER THE WEEKEND. -BLAES && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS AND POSSIBLY SOME VERY LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. FOG PRONE KRWI STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... WITH KRDU AND KFAY POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AS WELL. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXCEPTED. HOWEVER... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION... WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (KGSO/KINT). CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. THE RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION...AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE ANTICIPATED WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OUR VICINITY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...77/WSS

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