


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --500 FXUS62 KRAH 070709 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --The low pressure remnants of Chantal will drift northeastward into eastern Virginia today. A trailing surface trough will linger over the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through mid-week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 310 AM Monday... * Spotty isolated storms possible today, but most areas dry * Heat indices over portions of the Triangle and Sandhills could briefly reach 105 The impressive rainfall totals associated with the remnants of Chantal appear to be finally letting up. The last batch of rain is slowly exiting Person and Granville Counties. While a thorough post- storm rainfall will be done later today or Tuesday, estimated rainfall totals from MRMS show an impressive swath of 4 to 6 inches over the Sandhills and Piedmont. The highest amounts of potentially 8 to 10 inches were located across Chatham, Alamance, and Orange, where moderate to major river flooding is occurring on the Haw River, Deep River, Cape Fear, and Little River. Chantal and its remnants will continue to exit off to the ENE into VA and eventually offshore of the Mid-Atlantic later today and tonight. In its wake, WSW flow will be present at mid-levels, with ridging off the SE US coast. A weak trough will be present over the Mid-MS and OH valley region. While we cannot rule out some isolated storms this afternoon and evening nearly anywhere, forcing is rather weak, perhaps driven by some convection along a lee surface trough in the west and maybe a sea-breeze in the east, coverage should be limited. The main story today will likely be highs returning hot and humid with low to mid 90s. Some heat indices over the Triangle and Sandhills could briefly touch advisory criteria to near 105. Confidence to issue a Heat Advisory was not high enough at this point, but later shifts may need to consider. Any storm chances should die out this evening, with lows muggy in the 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 310 AM Monday... * Heat indices of 105 to 109 possible along/east of US-1. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of central NC * Marginal risk of both flash flooding and severe Tuesday will start a string of active storm days that will likely carry through much of the upcoming week. Not much will change in the pattern compared to Mon, with ridging off the coast extending into the SE US, and troughing at mid-levels over the TN and OH valley region. A hot and humid airmass will remain in place with highs in most areas in the middle 90s. Dewpoints will remain rather high, with areas along/east of US-1 likely in the mid to perhaps upper 70s. This will favor heat indices in the 100 to 109 range, highest along and east of highway 1. A heat advisory will likely be needed for much of central NC. On top of the heat risk Tuesday, there is a return chance of scattered afternoon and evening storms, potentially driven by the lee trough in western NC and an active sea-breeze, as well as moisture/convergence boundaries. Point soundings from several models suggest high DCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, favorable for strong/severe downburst wind gusts. Several AI models also depict this severe potential. SPC has a marginal risk for all of central NC, where multicell storms could form within 15- 25 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that put down brief heavy rain, especially across the Piedmont, flash flooding will be possible given saturated ground over most of central NC. Storms should weaken after sunset, with lows again muggy in the 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 310 AM Monday... * Active pattern with daily scattered showers and storms each day, with highest chances Wed through Fri. Additional rainfall will favor flash flooding with ongoing saturated ground and elevated river levels over the Piedmont * Warm and humid with highs upper 80s to low 90s most of the period An active pattern is favored in the extended, with daily scattered, to at times numerous, showers and storms. A slow moving trough over the OH and TN valley region will gradually slide south and east from Wednesday into Friday. The wettest period looks to be during this time, when high daytime instability will combine with forcing from the trough. Most of the storms will be diurnally driven with shear not overly impressive, but storm activity could linger at times into the late evening hours along residual outflow boundaries. Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Wed and Thu as AI guidance continues to indicate this potential with high instability. A pseudo front will try to approach late Fri into Sat, but any noticeable temperature change will be limited as highs likely stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the period. Somewhat lower highs are favored Thu and Fri when storm chances are highest, in the mid/upper 80s to near 90. As we head into the weekend, it does appear the trough will weaken, where ridging may largely take over. However, the pattern will continue to favor isolated to scattered aftn/eve storm chances, albeit possibly less than the latter part of the work week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM Monday... A mixture of MVFR to LIFR conditions are present to start the TAF period. Conditions should gradually improve toward Mon morning, though RDU and RWI will be the slowest to reach VFR conditions with the slow erosion of low stratus and patchy low visibilities with the remnants of Chantal. There is the potential for fog, primarily at GSO, INT, and RDU, though confidence in introducing it at this time is too low. Lingering pockets of light rain and drizzle may briefly lower visibilities to IFR at RDU and RWI. VFR conditions should prevail most of Mon after the stratus lifts by ~13-15z at RDU and RWI. Isolated showers or storms could develop nearly anywhere Mon aftn or eve, but confidence was too low to introduce thunder in any TAF. Some gusts from the WSW are possible, most favored at FAY/RWI to 20 kt. Looking beyond 06z Tue, rounds of scattered storms are expected each afternoon and evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are possible each day Wed-Fri. && .HYDROLOGY...-- Changed Discussion --As of 310 AM Monday... A ribbon of very heavy rain fell near and left of the track of the remnants of Chantal as it moved north across NC during the past 36 hours. The precipitation distribution was remarkable in that a narrow swath of heavy rain, perhaps 30 miles across from east to west, lifted north from Hoke and Scotland Counties near the SC border to Person and Caswell Counties near the VA border. In this swath, rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 8 inches, with a handful of locations in Chatham, Orange and Alamance counties reporting 8 to 9 inches. The western edge of the precipitation was acute with rainfall amounts generally less than 2 inches west of U.S. route 220 with essentially no rain observed west of Interstate 77. The heavy rain resulted in widespread flash flooding across Moore, Chatham, Alamance, Orange and Durham Counties with numerous road closures and water rescues. At least one bridge was washed out and over roadways were damaged. While the rain has ended, creeks and streams will remain high overnight into Monday morning and lingering flood waters will be slow to recede. Use caution when traveling early this morning as it is difficult to identify the dangers of flooding at night. The heavy rain was focused across the Cape Fear River basin including the Haw River, the Deep River, Little River and the Cape Fear River. The typically rapidly responding Haw River rapidly rose into major flood category and near but just under record crests set during Hurricane Fran with the river cresting during the pre-dawn hours this morning at Haw River and at Bynum. The Deep River at Moncure and the Cape Fear at Lillington are expected to go into moderate flooding later today. The Cape Fear at Fayetteville and the Little River at Manchester will potentially go into flood late today or Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...Kren/Hartfield HYDROLOGY...Blaes