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500
FXUS62 KRAH 070709
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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The low pressure remnants of Chantal will drift northeastward into
eastern Virginia today. A trailing surface trough will linger over
the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through mid-week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 310 AM Monday...

* Spotty isolated storms possible today, but most areas dry

* Heat indices over portions of the Triangle and Sandhills could
  briefly reach 105

The impressive rainfall totals associated with the remnants of
Chantal appear to be finally letting up. The last batch of rain is
slowly exiting Person and Granville Counties. While a thorough post-
storm rainfall will be done later today or Tuesday, estimated
rainfall totals from MRMS show an impressive swath of 4 to 6 inches
over the Sandhills and Piedmont. The highest amounts of potentially
8 to 10 inches were located across Chatham, Alamance, and Orange,
where moderate to major river flooding is occurring on the Haw
River, Deep River, Cape Fear, and Little River.

Chantal and its remnants will continue to exit off to the ENE into
VA and eventually offshore of the Mid-Atlantic later today and
tonight. In its wake, WSW flow will be present at mid-levels, with
ridging off the SE US coast. A weak trough will be present over the
Mid-MS and OH valley region. While we cannot rule out some isolated
storms this afternoon and evening nearly anywhere, forcing is rather
weak, perhaps driven by some convection along a lee surface trough
in the west and maybe a sea-breeze in the east, coverage should be
limited.

The main story today will likely be highs returning hot and humid
with low to mid 90s. Some heat indices over the Triangle and
Sandhills could briefly touch advisory criteria to near 105.
Confidence to issue a Heat Advisory was not high enough at this
point, but later shifts may need to consider. Any storm chances
should die out this evening, with lows muggy in the 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 AM Monday...

* Heat indices of 105 to 109 possible along/east of US-1. A Heat
  Advisory will likely be needed for portions of central NC

* Marginal risk of both flash flooding and severe

Tuesday will start a string of active storm days that will likely
carry through much of the upcoming week. Not much will change in the
pattern compared to Mon, with ridging off the coast extending into
the SE US, and troughing at mid-levels over the TN and OH valley
region. A hot and humid airmass will remain in place with highs in
most areas in the middle 90s. Dewpoints will remain rather high,
with areas along/east of US-1 likely in the mid to perhaps upper
70s. This will favor heat indices in the 100 to 109 range, highest
along and east of highway 1. A heat advisory will likely be needed
for much of central NC.

On top of the heat risk Tuesday, there is a return chance of
scattered afternoon and evening storms, potentially driven by the
lee trough in western NC and an active sea-breeze, as well as
moisture/convergence boundaries. Point soundings from several models
suggest high DCAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE in excess of 3000
J/kg, favorable for strong/severe downburst wind gusts. Several AI
models also depict this severe potential. SPC has a marginal risk
for all of central NC, where multicell storms could form within 15-
25 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that put down brief heavy
rain, especially across the Piedmont, flash flooding will be
possible given saturated ground over most of central NC. Storms
should weaken after sunset, with lows again muggy in the 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Monday...

* Active pattern with daily scattered showers and storms each day,
  with highest chances Wed through Fri. Additional rainfall will
  favor flash flooding with ongoing saturated ground and elevated
  river levels over the Piedmont

* Warm and humid with highs upper 80s to low 90s most of the period

An active pattern is favored in the extended, with daily scattered,
to at times numerous, showers and storms. A slow moving trough over
the OH and TN valley region will gradually slide south and east from
Wednesday into Friday. The wettest period looks to be during this
time, when high daytime instability will combine with forcing from
the trough. Most of the storms will be diurnally driven with shear
not overly impressive, but storm activity could linger at times into
the late evening hours along residual outflow boundaries. Isolated
severe wind gusts are possible Wed and Thu as AI guidance continues
to indicate this potential with high instability. A pseudo front
will try to approach late Fri into Sat, but any noticeable
temperature change will be limited as highs likely stay in the upper
80s to low 90s for much of the period. Somewhat lower highs are
favored Thu and Fri when storm chances are highest, in the mid/upper
80s to near 90.

As we head into the weekend, it does appear the trough will weaken,
where ridging may largely take over. However, the pattern will
continue to favor isolated to scattered aftn/eve storm chances,
albeit possibly less than the latter part of the work week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 AM Monday...

A mixture of MVFR to LIFR conditions are present to start the TAF
period. Conditions should gradually improve toward Mon morning,
though RDU and RWI will be the slowest to reach VFR conditions with
the slow erosion of low stratus and patchy low visibilities with the
remnants of Chantal. There is the potential for fog, primarily at
GSO, INT, and RDU, though confidence in introducing it at this time
is too low. Lingering pockets of light rain and drizzle may briefly
lower visibilities to IFR at RDU and RWI. VFR conditions should
prevail most of Mon after the stratus lifts by ~13-15z at RDU and
RWI. Isolated showers or storms could develop nearly anywhere Mon
aftn or eve, but confidence was too low to introduce thunder in any
TAF. Some gusts from the WSW are possible, most favored at FAY/RWI
to 20 kt.

Looking beyond 06z Tue, rounds of scattered storms are expected each
afternoon and evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our
west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are
possible each day Wed-Fri.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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As of 310 AM Monday...

A ribbon of very heavy rain fell near and left of the track of the
remnants of Chantal as it moved north across NC during the past 36
hours. The precipitation distribution was remarkable in that a
narrow swath of heavy rain, perhaps 30 miles across from east to
west, lifted north from Hoke and Scotland Counties near the SC
border to Person and Caswell Counties near the VA border. In this
swath, rainfall amounts ranged from 3 to 8 inches, with a handful
of locations in Chatham, Orange and Alamance counties reporting 8 to
9 inches. The western edge of the precipitation was acute with
rainfall amounts generally less than 2 inches west of U.S. route 220
with essentially no rain observed west of Interstate 77.

The heavy rain resulted in widespread flash flooding across Moore,
Chatham, Alamance, Orange and Durham Counties with numerous road
closures and water rescues. At least one bridge was washed out and
over roadways were damaged. While the rain has ended, creeks and
streams will remain high overnight into Monday morning and lingering
flood waters will be slow to recede. Use caution when traveling
early this morning as it is difficult to identify the dangers of
flooding at night.

The heavy rain was focused across the Cape Fear River basin
including the Haw River, the Deep River, Little River and the Cape
Fear River. The typically rapidly responding Haw River rapidly rose
into major flood category and near but just under record crests set
during Hurricane Fran with the river cresting during the pre-dawn
hours this morning at Haw River and at Bynum. The Deep River at
Moncure and the Cape Fear at Lillington are expected to go into
moderate flooding later today. The Cape Fear at Fayetteville and the
Little River at Manchester will potentially go into flood late today
or Tuesday.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Kren/Hartfield
HYDROLOGY...Blaes