-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
696
FXUS62 KRAH 190046
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
846 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Cyclone Jose will track generally parallel to, and a few
hundred miles off of the middle Atlantic and Northeast coast through
Thu, while a weak surface trough will develop and drift across the
Carolinas.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

With hurricane Jose lifting north up the Atlantic seaboard, its
limited effects will be weakening early tonight, with skies clearing
after sunset. Light northerly low level flow into the northeast
tonight may allow advection of low level moisture into the northern
Coastal Plain, with perhaps some late night/ morning cloudiness
across the east and north tomorrow morning. Only diurnal cumulus is
expected tomorrow with highs only slightly hampered by northwest
flow, reaching the mid 80s over most of the area. Mins tomorrow
night will be perhaps a touch warmer, but still mainly in the mid
60s as an upper short wave moves across the area accompanied by some
mid to high level cloudiness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Forcing that might enhance convection is not readily apparent
Wednesday in a lingering weak trof regime in the wake of Jose.
Plenty of sun is in the offing, which will allow modification of the
airmass to reach the mid and upper 80s, and very low 90s are
possible along the far southern counties. Mins on Wednesday night
will be persistence...mostly mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 322 PM Monday...

A mid-level weakness, with origins from the short wave that is
currently moving across the central Plains, will be stalled across
the Carolinas on Thursday. This feature may provide enough synoptic
scale forcing to support a few widely scattered showers Thursday and
Thursday night, with little in the way of QPF or impacts. Meanwhile,
Jose is forecast to be positioned southeast of Cape Cod and
beginning a southward drift as of the latest NHC advisory. As Jose
slowly drifts south or southeast, so to will the aforementioned mid-
level weakness, which then allows for a ridge to build over the
Midwest on Friday and over the Ohio Valley on Saturday. N/NE flow
assoc with this ridge to our north should set the stage for a drying
trend and slight cooling trend for our area, setting us up for a
very nice weekend weather-wise with mainly clear skies, highs in the
lower-mid 80s, and lows in the 60s.

Then the forecast gets more interesting for early next week thanks
to Hurricane Maria to our southeast. The eventual track of Maria
will largely depend on what happens with Jose. If Jose quickly fills
southeast of Cape Cod or moves farther east and out of the way of
the aforementioned ridge, that could set the stage for a steering
flow that would push Maria farther west and closer to the Carolinas.
However, if Jose holds together and ends up drifting farther south
or even west or southwest back toward the coast, the flow around
Jose would likely help to steer Maria away from the East Coast.
Given all the uncertainties, obviously its too soon to try and pin
down any forecast details for early next week, other than to say we
need to keep a close eye on how this all develops.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 830 PM Monday...

Mainly VFR, except for one more late night-morning of at least
patches of LIFR-MVFR conditions in a persistence forecast regime of
residually moist nly flow on the west side of Hurricane Jose. If
these conditions indeed materialize late tonight, the associated
moist layer will initially be trapped by a strong, shallow near-
surface inversion --just like the past few days-- such that IFR-MVFR
ceilings may linger through ~14Z Tue, before lifting and scattering
to VFR. Surface winds will gradually veer to a more nwly or wly
component by Tue afternoon, as Jose continues to track nwd, a few
hundred miles offshore the middle Atlantic coast.

Outlook: There will be a small chance of a shower in association
with the approach and passage of an upper level trough Thu-Fri, with
VFR conditions otherwise expected.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...MWS