Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
638 FXUS62 KRAH 152032 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the middle Atlantic states will weaken and shift east early tonight. A weak upper level trough will move across NC tonight, with the surface high pressure to follow Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM EST Wednesday... Just a couple of minor issues to deal with tonight. First, the stratocumulus seen along the SE Coastal Plain moving NNW from offshore of Wilmington. This cloudiness was associated with low level moisture return, along the periphery of the departing surface high, seen shifting off the coast in the latest data. These clouds are expected to affect areas along and east of Interstate 95 through the early evening, bringing mostly cloudy skies there. Elsewhere, only scattered to broken cirrus and cirrostratus were spreading eastward across the region. This leads to the other minor issue of the approaching but weakening mid/upper trough from the WNW. Since this feature is expected to become moisture starved as it pushes over the Appalachians tonight, we will exclude POP for the night. However, mid and high cloudiness will increase, and this may play a role in warmer lows overnight, especially in the west and north where clouds will be thicker. It does appear that it will clear between 06z-09z in the NW, with clouds lingering down east through around daybreak. We will raise lows a degree or two and go with the warmest MOS lows overnight ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s all zones. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... A secondary cold front is expected to push through late Thursday. Until then, drier and sinking air will follow the departing mid/upper trough Thursday. Temperatures should warm well into the 60s (near 70 Sandhills) with WSW flow at 10-15 mph. Winds will die off overnight Thursday, with clear skies as the high pressure builds overnight. Lows generally in the mid to upper 30s expected, with lower 30s in the normally colder locations of the Piedmont. The high will be overhead Friday into Friday night supplying clear skies and light winds. Highs 55-62. Lows Friday night will depend on the timing of WAA, much of which will likely be felt aloft and not at the surface. This may be especially in the east, where the ridge will be slower to depart. Lows should be coolest in the NE - warmest SW (35-42). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... Dry and cool high pressure will build over the Atlantic coast on Friday with low amplitude, nearly zonal ridging aloft. Skies will be sunny with highs in the mid to upper 50s. This high will edge offshore Friday night, with mild temperatures and moisture advection in the resulting return flow on Saturday. Highs Saturday will climb to seasonable low and mid 60s after a morning low in the upper 30s. Concurrently, a strong short wave and associated cold front will be moving rapidly across the Ohio Valley, with the front`s racing across central NC Saturday night. The pressure gradient will tighten considerably ahead of the front, with low level jetting of 45 to 50 knots developing ahead of a very strong, but narrow zone of low level convergence. As such, expect that a vigorous line of showers will accompany the front, with strength of convection limited by the front`s unfavorable overnight timing and moisture availability limited by the front`s rapid movement. The front will be near the coast Sunday morning, with rapid clearing as early as late Saturday night in the west to Sunday morning in the east. Highs Sunday will be mostly low and mid 50s, as cold advection will produce only a modest rise from the morning mins which will be mostly in the lower 40s. The cool airmass will be in place Monday, with highs only reaching around 50 after a morning low around freezing. Dry weather will continue Tue and Wed, with highs edging to 50 to 55 after morning lows mostly in the lower 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1220 PM Wednesday... MVFR CIGS may reach into the KRWI terminal between 20Z and 23Z, before dissipating. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across central NC this afternoon. VFR CIGS are expected tonight as a weak upper level disturbance passes west to east across the region this evening through early Thursday. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions expected until the next cold front that is forecast to arrive Saturday night. This may result in MVFR to IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS for a period Saturday night and early Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.