Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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211 FXUS62 KRAH 260204 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight. A second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday... The radar remains mostly clear at this hour except for some what appears to be virga in a few sporadic patches. Otherwise precipitation remains south of the forecast area and confined to the coast in the vicinity of the surface front. With central NC behind that front temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s already across the northwest but with upper 70s to near 80 degrees still lingering across the south. Dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 60s across the area. With drying at the surface, fog or low stratus is not expected tonight although some high level clouds could remain across the area which could keep our temperatures from bottoming out. Therefore have lows in the lower 60s and perhaps a few upper 50s back across the northwest and upper 60s in the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Wly flow aloft will induce a weak lee-side sfc trough to develop Monday across the Piedmont. While this feature would normally aid to focus convective development this time of year, atmosphere Monday afternoon appears to be too dry and stable to support anything more than fair weather cumulus. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast. Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal for this time of year, ranging from the lower-middle 80s. The approach of a mid level s/w and attendant sfc front Monday night will keep the low level atmosphere stirred-up enough to prohibit full cooling potential. In addition, will likely see an increase in mid/high level cloudiness after midnight across the Piedmont. Min temps 60-65 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... A cooler airmass settles over the region Tuesday into Wednesday as the trough axis traverses the area. Latest model guidance continues to suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across central NC Tuesday afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves through. Wednesday will be rain free and little if any clouds. High pressure at the surface will move east of the region Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be very low but temperatures and dew points will trend upward as a south to southwesterly low level flow resumes across the Carolinas. Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a surface front approaching the Appalachians. Rain chances will increase Saturday and Sunday as low level moisture and synoptic scale forcing increases. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday through Friday/... As of 730 PM Sunday... VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours over central NC. Mid and high clouds will streak across central and eastern NC this evening, as a strong upper jet shifts over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. This clouds will exit the area tonight, leaving mostly clear skies. No restrictions to vsbys tonight through Mon as drier air moves in. Winds will be light. Looking beyond 00z Tue (Mon evening), high confidence in VFR conditions dominating through the work week. There is a small chance of a showers and storms with passage of a secondary cold front and upper level trough late Tue, but any sub-VFR conditions would be brief. High pressure will dominate the rest of the work week. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...np/Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield

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