Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 300019 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 819 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 140 PM MONDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO IT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS UNSEASONABLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINTS BEGIN CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEY THEY COULD IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 205 PM MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SHARPENS DURING THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL NC TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING SO WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE AS THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 88 TO 94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM MONDAY... THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE PATTERN REFLECTS A SIMILARLY RESILIENT LEE TROF...HENCE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...RANGING FROM UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. WHILE MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE MID ATLANTIC AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER PATTERN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE BERMUDA HIGH EDGES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE DEEPER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE TROFFING AND NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A BIT...MOSTLY LOW 90S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH EACH DAY. THE SURFACE TROFFING MIGHT ADD SOME LOCAL CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...BUT OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO STRONGER...READILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES THAT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST BEYOND NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 815 PM MONDAY... GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT AT RWI WHEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUE- TUE NIGHT...WITH THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ON TUE. OUTLOOK: THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...THU-SAT...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...26

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