Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230132 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 932 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hot high pressure will remain across the mid-South and southern Appalachians through the weekend, then gradually weaken by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 932 PM Saturday... Dangerously hot conditions will continue across central NC through Sunday evening... Isolated convection has longed dissipated across the NW Piedmont. But there is still a slight/small chance for a few storms across the far northern/northeastern zones later tonight, where a shortwave disturbance currently moving through the Mid-Atlantic states could result in the re-development of convection across central and southern VA, that could along with associated outflow could propagate southward towards the northern Piedmont and NE Coastal Plain. Like last night, temperatures will be slow fall through the 80s overnight, with overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 343 PM Saturday... ...Warnings and Advisories continue through 700 PM Sunday evening... Another day of very hot temperatures of 96-101, with dew points near record highs (mid to upper 70s in the east) yields heat index values of 105 to 115, highest in FAY and Raleigh and Coastal Plain. These Warnings and Advisories have been extended through the night as lows of 77-82 will not allow enough cooling potential for those outdoors or those with no air conditioning. Air movement is a must when nightly lows do not fall below 80. Convection chances will increase Sunday afternoon and evening as a weakening cool front approaches in the WNW flow aloft. At least scattered storms should bring cooling relief to portions of the region late day or during Sunday evening. Thunderstorm chances remain Sunday night. Lows generally a few degrees cooler with lower to mid 70s north and west, upper 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM SATURDAY... Cyclonic flow aloft initially over the Mid-Atlantic is progged to weaken by mid-week as a New England trough lifts northeast into the Atlantic and a central CONUS ridge extends eastward into the Appalachians, though shortwave energy may stall out over the Southeast in the process. Cyclonic flow aloft is progged to strengthen/return by mid/late week an upper level ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West/Rockies. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures and above normal precip chances early next week, transitioning to near normal temperatures and precip chances mid- week as flow aloft weakens (though confidence is lower than average given that shortwave energy may stall over the Southeast), followed by above normal chances for precip and below normal temperatures by the end of the week as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the region. -Vincent && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 840 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Convection has died off this evening. However, there is a very small chance we could see some redevelopment as convection moving across northern VA sinks southward, via outflow, late tonight. Confidence is way too low to include in the TAFs though. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will continue overnight through Sunday morning. Clusters of showers and storms will be possible late Sunday afternoon across all of central NC, first across northern portions of the area, then spreading south. Any storm will have the potential to produce gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions. Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions will continue through the middle of next week, with the primary sub-VFR risk coming courtesy of showers and storms that will grow in coverage each successive day through Tue. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 22 July | 103 2011 | 78 2011 23 July | 105 1952 | 78 2011 24 July | 101 2011 | 79 2011 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 22 July | 101 1926 | 77 2011 23 July | 99 1952 | 78 2010 24 July | 99 1914 | 78 2010 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 22 July | 107 1932 | 79 2011 23 July | 103 2011 | 79 1998 24 July | 105 1952 | 79 1945 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ010-011- 026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089. Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>009-021>025- 038>040-073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BSD/BADGETT CLIMATE...RAH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.