Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271737 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 136 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY... THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1022 AM WEDNESDAY... TODAY: MUCH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIMING/COVERAGE DUE TO THE COMPLICATED MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THE FRONTAL ZONE...JUST NORTH OF RICHMOND VA...IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS EVENING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY ARISES IF THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH GIVEN THE LACK OF PUSH/SUPPORT FROM THE NORTH AS LOW-AMPLITUDE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED STAY TO OUR NORTH WE COULD SEE SEVERAL DIFFERENT SCENARIOS PLAY OUT...MOST OF WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AREAS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE VA BORDER. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH ONLY A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING/MAX DESTABILIZATION. ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO...REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA...FORCED BY WEAK S/W DISTURBANCES ALOFT...COULD RESULT IN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...GENERALLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR 15-25KTS...STRONGEST TO THE NORTH INVOF THE FRONT...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. TONIGHT: GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO EJECT EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 259 AM WEDNESDAY... A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. POTENTIALLY GOOD NEWS FOR FOR THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS;HOWEVER, A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME WITH THE RAINFALL. A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH DURING THE DAY... THEN PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIST TO START THE DAY... ANY OF WHICH MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT NOT APPROACH UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THE SOUTHERN... CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS THE REGION WHERE MOST MODELS DEVELOP 1500 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE FROM WIND... WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE NW WILL MIX OUT TO SOME SUNSHINE WITH 1000-1500 CAPES POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE EDGE OF THE FADING MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER REGION... BUT THE PLACEMENT IS PROBLEMATIC. THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BROADBRUSH 50-60 POP AND QPF OF AROUND 0.50 THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE NW. RESIDUAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 259 AM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY IS NOW LOOKING DRIER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDING THAT WAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH HEATING AND THE LINGERING COOL POCKET TO OUR NE THAT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... AND MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. EXPECT READINGS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER AND DRIER WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WILL SUPPLY A LIGHT NE FLOW. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUN. THEN INCREASING CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... EXPECT A STORM SYSTEM TO LIFT NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE INTO CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE IS POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT TUESDAY. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS LOOKING WET WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH EAST... WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE WEST. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICAL WITH CONVECTIVE RAINS... SOME MAY STILL GET LEFT OUT. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND THE TROUGH IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 136 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARDS THE NC/VA STATE LINE THIS EVENING. WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KINT...KGSO...KRWI...AND KRDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CONVECTION...WITH LESSER CHANCES AT KFAY. WITH THE STALLED FRONT NEARBY AND CONTINUED POTENTIAL TO SEE WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SMALL CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-DAWN FOG/STRAUS THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD: DRY CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RETURN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL CAD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT/BADGETT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...CBL

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