Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190810 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross central North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the Carolina coast Monday night. Low pressure will form near Florida Tuesday and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week. && .NEAR TERM /Today through tonight/... As of 145 AM Sunday... The band of showers is making its way through central NC early this morning, ahead of a potent cold front. As anticipated, the SW winds within a shallow but well-mixed boundary layer ahead of the front have tapped into even stronger winds just a couple thousand feet up, which showed up well in last evening`s observed 925 mb plots where winds were 35-50 kts. Periodic gusts of 25-35 kts will remain common until frontal passage around 08z-13z. Downslope drying and deep subsidence and stabilization post-front will swiftly clear skies out by mid to late morning areawide. The tight MSLP gradient behind the front and observations of 25-40 kts at 1000-2000 ft AGL support gusty NW winds (12-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph) for much of the day. Despite morning thicknesses bottoming out around 15-20 m below normal, insolation should offset the cold air advection a bit, and expect daytime highs of 53-62 (although most places are seeing their calendar day "highs" right now). Clear skies and diminishing winds are expected tonight as the surface high center draws closer. Taking a degree or so off statistical guidance based on good radiational cooling favors highs of 27-34. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 155 AM Sunday... Quiet weather likely. The high pressure will drift across the Mid South and Carolinas through Mon afternoon before tracking off the Carolina coast Mon night. A dry and subsiding column and no low level moisture return potential will translate into sunny skies Mon. Low level thicknesses will be 25-30 m below normal early but will rise nicely through the day with waning cold air advection. Highs 53- 58. A gradually amplifying mid level trough extending through the central CONUS and shifting into the Miss Valley will bring increasing high clouds into NC from west to east Mon night, so will have a trend to fair or partly cloudy skies overnight. Expect milder lows of 30-35. -GIH && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 310 AM Sunday... Tuesday will be mild as surface high pressure sites offshore and brings southerly return flow and warm air advection into the area. A dry forecast is expected for much of the day but a few showers could begin to move into the eastern portion of the forecast area as a weak low pressure system moves up the Carolina coast. This system will continue to develop on Wednesday but will remain offshore and there will only be an outside chance of showers in the eastern counties. Temperatures during this timeframe in the mid 50s in the NW Piedmont to mid 60s in the southeast. Wednesday night a dry cold front will move through the area cooling off temperatures into the low to middle 30s. For Thanksgiving Day, looking like a mostly dry forecast for many but a second low pressure system moving up the coast will keep things a little more uncertain for areas mainly east of I-95. There will be a slight chance of some showers as the system passes by to the east. Cooler high temperatures in the low 50s. Lows in the mid 30s. Continental high pressure will then take over for the rest of the week, keeping the forecast dry with temperatures gradually rising through the 50s back in to the low 60s across the south by Sunday afternoon with upper 50s elsewhere.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 1250 AM Sunday... Adverse aviation conditions are expected early this morning, in the first 4-6 hours of the TAF valid period, but will be followed by high-confidence VFR conditions from mid morning onward. A band of showers and gusty winds from the SW will cross the area quickly early this morning ahead of a cold front. A short period of MVFR cigs but mostly VFR (perhaps briefly MVFR) vsbys in showers is possible at all sites from west to east 06z-12z. Low level wind shear remains possible areawide as a 45-55 kt jet from the SW at around 1800-2000 ft AGL moves over the area. Cold frontal passage will feature an abrupt shift of winds from SW to NW, still gusty behind the front but winds will be reduced. After 12z (except after 14z at RWI), skies will clear out, with gusty winds from the NW persisting through the day. Winds will diminish after nightfall, with continued clear skies and unrestricted vsbys. Looking beyond 06z Mon, VFR conditions are likely through Tue as high pressure dominates at the surface. MVFR cigs are possible Tue night as low level moisture streams up and over a frontal zone sitting along the NC coast. Low pressure tracking NE along this front through Wed may bring sub-VFR conditions to RWI/FAY, while locations further inland are more likely to stay VFR. VFR conditions are likely areawide Thanksgiving Day as cool high pressure noses into central NC from the NW and the frontal zone shifts further SE away from NC. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Hartfield

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