Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180134 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 933 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure centered over the Northeast will extend south down the Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic through Monday. Hurricane Jose will pass well offshore of the NC coast on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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As of 933 PM Sunday... Pressure gradient will tighten overnight and into the day Monday as Hurricane Jose continues to move north, and remaining well east of the NC coast. As such, expect the calm to light winds currently being reported to become northerly at 4 to 7 kts across central NC, strongest in the east. While this mixing should preclude widespread fog development, NAM fcst soundings suggest indicate the low-level moisture along the coast spreading inland and lowering with time. Otherwise, we will continue to see in persistence in terms of overnight lows, ranging from 63-64 in the typically cooler spots to upper 60s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Sunday... As Hurricane Jose moves up the east coast there will be little to no impact for central NC aside from more clouds and the possibility of some rain band showers moving through the eastern counties but the results will be inconsequential. There will be some wind gusts up to 15 kts or so mainly out of the NNE. Coolest temperatures will once again be in the northeast with warmest values in the southwest Piedmont. Expect highs between 80-85 degrees. Clouds will begin to recede on Monday night from southwest to northeast and temperatures will dip into the low to middle 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 325 PM Sunday... While there`s a lot to keep our eyes on in the long term period, central NC will be in between significant weather features for most of the period. At the start of the period on Tuesday, a west to northwest flow aloft is expected as weak troughiness aloft develops extends from Jose southwest into our region on Wednesday and Thursday. The weakness aloft eventually closes off near TN/AL on Friday and then drifts west on Saturday. The lower level flow which is initially northwest to northerly on Tuesday and Wednesday, becomes easterly on Thursday and Friday. With limited forcing for ascent, dry and generally fair weather is expected with temperatures a few degrees above normal. The forecast become increasingly more complex late in the weekend into early next week. Jose which may be evolving into a sub-tropical or post-tropical system appears inclined to head westerly toward the mid Atlantic coast. At the same time, Hurricane Maria is forecast to be approaching the central/northern Bahamas. The interaction of these two systems and the weakness aloft over the lower MS Valley or Deep South will have big implications in the sensible weather across the area on Monday and beyond. For now, followed WPC guidance with seasonable temperatures and slight chance PoPs on Monday. -Blaes && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... Generally a persistence forecast with respect to 24 hours ago, though likely with a slightly farther swwd expansion of LIFR-MVFR conditions --into FAY and RDU-- Mon morning. The associated saturated layer will likely remain trapped beneath a strong, shallow inversion near the surface, such that LIFR-IFR conditions may linger at ern sites through 14-16Z Mon. In addition, an isolated afternoon shower will again be possible at RWI and FAY. VFR conditions, with a nely wind that will increase with diurnal heating into the 8-13 kt range, with occasional gustiness into the mid-upper teens kts at ern sites, are expected to prevail otherwise and elsewhere. Outlook: Continued nely flow between Tropical Cyclone Jose and high pressure centered along the New England coast will yield a good chance of late night-early morning stratus and an afternoon shower at ern TAF sites through Tue. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RE LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...MWS

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