Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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805 FXUS62 KRAH 230821 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 320 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Initially cool high pressure will weaken and modify as it expands east across the middle Atlantic and southeast states through Friday night. Meanwhile, at least a couple of areas of low pressure will track from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northeastward across FL and offshore the southeastern US coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 PM Wednesday... The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure across the Ohio and Missouri valleys building east into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dew points across central NC are now in the upper 20s to lower 30s with a light northeast flow. The evening RAOB at KGSO showed a very dry profile with a precipitable water of 0.19 inches and some limited moisture noted in the 400-200 hPa layer. Satellite imagery shows an area of cirrus across the northeast Gulf of Mexico extending into FL, GA and the Carolinas. Main forecast issue for the overnight will be the amount of cirrus clouds and any potential impact on overnight lows. The upper-level trough axis to our west sharpens overnight with guidance indicating high level moisture will increase and buckle back to the northwest. Have increased cloud cover a bit overnight and adjusted lows slightly. regardless, fair weather with lows in the 30 to 37 range. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 223 PM Wednesday... High pressure will settle over NC and provide another nice weather day, although about 10 degrees cooler than today, thanks to the airmass that`s currently being ushered into the area. We`ve been keeping track of the short wave trough and sfc wave in the GOM, but it now looks like that system will remain well to our south and east, as the sfc wave moves up along the old cold front that moved through our area earlier today. The only impact that this system will have on our weather will be increased cirrus, particularly across the eastern half of the state. Overall, looks like fair low- impact weather for Thanksgiving Day and night. Highs in the upr 40s north to lower-mid 50s elsewhere, and lows within a few degrees either side of the freezing mark. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EDT Thursday... A series of moisture-starved shortwave troughs traversing eastward within the Eastern US long wave trough will prove of little consequence as they move through the region, with very limited rain chances expected to accompany the attendant sfc cold front moving progged to move through the region late Saturday. Westerly flow preceding the fronts arrival will result in mild daytime highs in the low to mid 60s Saturday afternoon. The cooler temperatures behind the cold front Sunday and Monday will be rather short-lived as the upper ridge over the Western US transition eastwards atop the Eastern US by Tuesday/Wednesday. Highs Sunday and Monday in the low to mid 50s north to upper 50s south, then warming back up into the 60s and possibly even near 70 across the southern coastal plain and Sandhills by Wednesday. Model spread increases with the timing of upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies with the EC a full day slower than the GFS. Despite time discrepancies, this system, at this time, does not appear to be one that will produce any significant and much needed rainfall.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 AM Thursday... Cool and dry high pressure will build east across the Carolinas and result in a high probability of VFR conditions, with periods of considerable high level cloudiness (above 20 thousand ft), through the 06Z TAF period. Mainly light nely surface winds around the high will become light and variable as the high settles overhead by late this afternoon. Outlook: Waves of low pressure will track northeastward, along an offshore frontal zone Fri-Sat; and there is a small chance that some associated MVFR range moisture/ceilings and light rain will edge as far wwd as FAY and RWI by late Fri or Fri night. There will be a similarly small chance of a few showers in cntl NC, in association with the passage of a cold front early Sat night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...MWS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.