Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231742 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 142 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northeast states will extend south into our region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Saturday... A weak broad upper trough over the SE US will drift west today and tonight with central NC becoming under the increasing influence of the stacked anticyclone expanding eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region. This will allow for dry conditions and a nearly cloud free sky, aside from some very thin patchy cirrus clouds. Some patchy fog will again be possible with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 60s, with even a few upper 50s in the cold rural areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Stacked ridging and associated subsidence will support a dry and stable air mass with a continuation of above-normal temperatures across central NC. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will track north through the open waters of the Western Atlantic. As pressure gradient begins to tighten up ever so slightly, a steady 5 to 10 mph northerly breeze will make it very pleasant, despite the warm temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Expect gradual overspreading high cloudiness well ahead of hurricane Maria as early as Monday night. The official track has been gradually nudged west, and the latest forecast would still keep Maria far enough offshore to preclude significant impacts aside from gustiness from 20 to 25 mph in the Coastal Plain Tuesday and Wednesday. Will introduce a slight chance of showers in the coastal plain as well on Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the potential of banded convection wrapping into the area. Highs will continue to reach the mid and upper 80s through Thursday after morning lows in the mid and upper 60s. A long wave trof amplifying down the Ohio Valley will drive Maria offshore late week, and we will have a welcome airmass change as an initial surge of dry cooler air drives east on Friday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling further as the trof continues to amplify, with highs next weekend solidly in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Surface high pressure will extend southward into NC today, generally resulting in VFR conditions through Sunday. Patchy MVFR ground fog is possible at all terminals tonight, with some periods of IFR/LIFR at KRWI. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid-week The approach of Hurricane Maria towards the NC coast will result in breezy conditions by Wednesday with northerly wind gusts as high as 25 to 35 kts, strongest at eastern terminals. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...CBL

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