Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 140125 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A quasi-stationary frontal zone will remain in the vicinity of the Carolinas through mid week.
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As of 926 PM Sunday... Earlier convection that developed along and south of the stalled frontal zone that extends across the southern Sandhills to across the central Carolina Coast has largely dissipated with loss of heating. Rain/convective chances for the remainder of the night shouldn`t be anymore than isolated/slight chance, with perhaps a slight uptick towards daybreak across the far western Piedmont with the approach of shortwave energy into the mountains. Additionally, could see areas/patchy fog develop along and south of the front. Lows tonight will range from around 70 north/northeast to mid/upper 70s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 335 PM Sunday... Monday, the low level return flow will aid to pivot the stalled sfc front into a sw-ne orientated fashion from the southern Piedmont into the northern coastal plain. The approach of the TN Valley shear axis interacting with the moist unstable air mass should trigger scattered-numerous showers and storms across a large part of central NC. Precipitable water values of 2-2.4 inches projected across the region will support torrential rainfall, and possible localized flooding concerns. Dependent upon what happens tonight, a flash flood watch may be needed for sections of the region Monday-Monday night. In addition, effective bulk shear will be of sufficient strength to support a strong/severe storm or two, if adequate low level instability exists. Convection will likely persist well into Monday night as the mid level shear axis lingers in our vicinity. Highs Monday tricky as overcast skies and scattered-numerous showers may limit insolation, resulting in cooler than forecast temps, especially in the Piedmont. For now will favor max temps upper 70s/around 80 northwest Piedmont to the upper 80s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 250 PM Sunday... Above average uncertainty persists for the majority of the extended period, esp. with regard to the timing/coverage of convection. An upper level ridge expected to amplify over the Deep South and FL Gulf Coast by mid-week will persist through the end of the work week. Central NC will be situated along the northern periphery of the ridge, at the southern fringe of the westerlies. The ridge over the Deep South/Southeast is progged to weaken this weekend. Central NC is progged to remain at the southern periphery of the westerlies as the ridge over the Deep South/Southeast begins to break down over the weekend. As a result, shortwave energy could cut-off over the Southeast (on the eastern periphery of the weakening ridge) Sat-Sun. With the above in mind, expect near normal chances for convection and near normal temps mid/late week. Uncertainty increases as the ridge over the Deep South breaks down over the weekend. At this time, will indicate near-climo temps and chances for convection Sat- Mon. -Vincent && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Only a few light sprinkles left across the CWA this evening as lower dewpoints and northeasterly winds have pushed through much of the CWA. Still some showers in the vicinity of KFAY but otherwise the radar is fairly clear. Many models showing low ceilings tonight with MVFR levels possible in the Triad but much lower to the east where at least IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings are expected. Visibility values may drop below VFR levels as well but much like last night, the ceilings will continue to drive the flight categories. Some showers are possible throughout the TAF period but thunder could be possible during the later afternoon/early evening hours on Monday. Otherwise light and variable winds through much of the TAF period but for the most part keeping an easterly component. Long Term: Diurnal convection will continue to be possible each afternoon with fog and low stratus each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.