Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250326 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1026 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong low pressure system will push through the Great Lakes tonight. This will allow an associated cold front to cross our region on Saturday. Cooler high pressure will build into the area Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 1025 PM FRIDAY... Mainly clear with a light SSEly breeze, and temperature mainly in the 50s overnight. A narrow ridge of surface high pressure remains over Ern NC this evening, between a pre-frontal line of convection and closely following cold front over central KY/TN,and a pair of surface lows a few hundred miles off the coast of the Carolinas. The MSL pressure gradient over mainly the Wrn half of NC will tighten late tonight, as the aforementioned cold front nears the W slopes of the Appalachians by 12Z. A light SSEly surface wind will consequently gradually increase overnight, particularly W of I-95 (away from the lingering narrow surface ridge axis). Associated modest radiational cooling, with projected 12Z low level thickness values around 1375 meters, favor lows about a category below consensus guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 PM FRIDAY... Deepening cyclone will lift north into Ontario and Quebec, with attendant trailing sfc cold front crossing the area Saturday afternoon/evening. With the better dynamics and deeper moisture lifting off to the north, accompanying band of convection will weaken across North Carolinas, with only isolated to scattered convection skirting across the northern tier. Temperatures will approach record territory once again, especially across the south-southeastern tier where it will remain mostly dry. Highs ranging from mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE. It will be breezy as well, with sustained winds of 15 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30kts. As far as severe potential: Steep low-level rates from the unseasonably strong diurnal heating along with mid-level lapse rates of 6.8 to 7.50 C/Km will result in weak destabilization of 500 to 1000 J/Kg across central NC. Given impressive 50 to 60kts of unidirectional shear, it will be possible to see an isolated strong to severe wind gust across the northern tier. Strong post-frontal dry cold air advection Friday evening/night will result in abrupt clearing and seasonable overnight lows in the lower 30s NW to upper 30s/near 40 SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... A broad upper level trough covering most of the contiguous U.S. will result in a slightly unsettled weather pattern across the U.S. this period. Temperatures, overall, are expected to remain above or well above normal through mid-week. Afterwards, lower than normal heights translates to near or slightly below normal temperatures for the later half of the work week. A series of upper disturbances will keep the atmosphere slightly unsettled across central NC for the beginning of this period. High pressure building into our region Sunday in the wake of an exiting s/w and attendant sfc cold front will lead to drier cool conditions Sunday. This high quickly scoots offshore Monday, leading to an appreciable warm up with high temps expected to be about 8-10 degrees warmer than Sunday afternoon highs. Models in general agreement lifting a mid-upper level across the Deep South and the Southeast U.S. Monday night into Tuesday, leading to a chance of showers. At this time, the highest threat for rain across central NC appears to be late Monday night into early Tuesday. A more amplified s/w will begin to affect our region Wednesday with another chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system exits our region Thursday morning, leading to a more stable and cooler period. Ahead of the mid week system, temperatures will once again average 10-20 degrees above normal with Wednesday`s high temps most likely in the 75-80 degrees range. Cooler temperatures anticipated Thu-Fri as a l/w trough develops over the eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 805 PM Friday... VFR conditions are likely to hold through much of tonight, and again on Saturday, although a period of IFR conditions is possible at RWI/FAY late tonight. The flat VFR cumulus that formed today with heating has largely dissipated, although cigs persist in the Sandhills including FAY. High thin clouds will continue to streak across the area overnight, and in the eastern CWA, pockets of IFR cigs are expected to form 08z-09z at RWI and 09z-10z at FAY, lasting until 12z-13z. MVFR-IFR vsbys are possible at RWI during this period as well. VFR conditions will then rule areawide 13z through the end of the forecast period (00z Sun), however a band of showers and storms will cross primarily the northern terminals (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) during the 16z-21z time frame, and this will likely bring a short period of IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs as they pass through, along with locally strong wind gusts. Outside of any showers/storms, winds will be light under 7 kts from the SSW tonight, increasing from the SW on Sat to 13-18 kts with periodic gusts of 20-30 kts expected. Winds will veer to westerly just behind a cold front that will cross the area immediately behind the showers/storms, during the afternoon hours. Looking beyond 00z Sun, skies will clear out by Sat evening with the cold front passage and high pressure building in from the west for Sat night through Sun, moving east and offshore Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. -GIH && .CLIMATE... Record highs for February 25: Greensboro: 81 (1930) Raleigh: 82 (1930) Fayetteville: 85 (1930) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...Hartfield CLIMATE...Badgett

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