Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171752 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off the Southeast U.S. coast and allow a warm front to lift north across the southern Mid Atlantic states today and tonight. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday and Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Friday... Mid and high cloudiness over the region this morning is a result of a potent vorticity maximum diving SE into the base of the offshore- moving deep mid level longwave trough. As this feature pushes to our SE followed by rising heights later today, expect a trend toward increasing sunshine with drying and warming through the column. High insolation this afternoon combined with thicknesses that are around 30 m greater than yesterday morning`s values, as well as steady warming through the day as southwesterly low level flow kicks in, should translate to highs around 10 degrees above yesterday`s, from around 60 NE to around 70 SW. -GIH Expect clear skies and a light SW breeze tonight, with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s in rural and low-lying areas to the upper 30s/lower 40s elsewhere, warmest in urban areas. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... A deamplifying southern stream low tracking eastward through the Deep South on Saturday will progress across the Carolinas Saturday night. Expect cloud cover to increase in advance of the approaching wave Sat afternoon, with ceilings falling from 15-20 KFT to 5-10 KFT by ~00Z Sunday. Forcing for ascent will primarily be limited to DPVA attendant the upper wave. Due to the progressive nature of the wave /brief window for low-level moistening/, poor diurnal timing and a very dry antecedent airmass in the lower levels, it may be difficult to get measurable precipitation. Although isold showers cannot be ruled out, occasional sprinkles seem more likely. Expect highs Sat in the lower 70s, lows Sat night in the mid/upper 40s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 325 AM Friday... Strong subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough will yield abrupt west-east clearing by late morning/early afternoon Sunday with a mild surface high building in from the west. Highs 70 to 75. Lows in the 40s. The southern stream is forecast to remain active with a vigorous Pacific upper trough/closed low forecast to move slowly east across the southern Conus, with most recent runs of the GFS and EC tracking the upper low across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico during the mid week period. Such a solution/track this far south will mean very little if any precip for central NC Wednesday and Thursday, with bulk of rainfall staying across the Deep South/Gulf Coast Region. Instead, the main story will be the continuation of mild temperatures underneath the amplifying downstream shortwave ridge progged to move over the region through the mid week period. Expect daytime highs a good 12 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Wednesday/...
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As of 1250 PM Friday... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. High pressure will build across the Southeast states, bringing a light SW flow and unrestricted cigs/vsbys to the area. High clouds, based above 12000 ft AGL, will spread in from the west late in the period, after 12z Sat morning, as an upper level low approaches slowly from the west. Looking beyond 18z Sat, cloud cover will continue to increase Sat afternoon as the upper low draws closer, but cloud bases are likely to stay VFR, with VFR vsbys and a few sprinkles possible. Clearing skies with unrestricted cigs will return Sun afternoon, lasting through at least Tue as high pressure builds across the area. A few showers are possible Wed but VFR conditions should dominate. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Hartfield

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