Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 271654 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY... ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE WARRANTED THIS MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRATUS WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WITH A FEW BREAK MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED INSOLATION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM. SOME THINING HAS BEGUN DURING THE RECENT HOURS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHES THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO SHOW A DELAYED RISE AND REDUCED MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NC WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF THE 850MB FRONT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACH. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING BUT WE EXPECT THE SUN TO BREAK OUT AT TIMES AND PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL HOWEVER AND WILL RANGE (5.5-6.0 C/KM). THE SPC MAINTAINS THE ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING FROM TO DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING. HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IN SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO RISK IS SMALL BUT EXISTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE VA BORDER IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. ANTICIPATING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND REFINING MANY DETAILS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IS PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY OCCURRING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE WATCH. -BLAES
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY... THE STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY SHOWER OR STORM IN THE SE... PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION SUNDAY. COMBINED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S... THIS WILL FEEL MUCH BETTER THAN IN RECENT WEEKS. THE LONG STRING (15 DAYS OR SO) OF 90 DEGREE HEAT SHOULD ALSO BE BROKEN FOR MANY SITES ACROSS OUR REGION. A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS 55-60 IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTH AND WEST ZONES... WITH 60-65 IN THE SE AND IN URBAN CENTERS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 135 AM SATURDAY... THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO READINGS THAT ARE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH OR EXCEED 90 IN ALL BUT THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SET UP WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT TO BE LIFTING MECHANISM AND FOCUS. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY APPROACH THE NC/VA BORDER DURING MAX HEATING THURSDAY... AND IT MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THE POP SHOULD BE AROUND 40-50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE SE (SEABREEZE)... WITH A MINIMUM 30 IN THE SW PIEDMONT. HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT A FEW TERMINALS (I.E. INT/FAY) THROUGH 12-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFT/EVE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BY 06-12Z SUNDAY MORNING...EARLIEST WEST (INT/GSO) AND LATEST EAST (RWI). LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. -VINCENT && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088- 089. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ007-008-021>025- 038>040-073>076-083-084. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...PWB LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.