Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 131124 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 334 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front continues to push off-shore early Wednesday morning, leaving in its wake much colder temperatures and strong wind gusts. High pressure will briefly build in Wednesday ahead of a fast moving upper level disturbance expected to move just north of the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM Wednesday... ...Gusty winds expected to continue early this morning, with wind chill readings falling to the single digits and teens just before sunrise.... Early morning surface analysis shows a cold front continuing to push well off of the Mid Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday morning, leaving cold temperatures and diminishing winds in its wake. Temperatures continue to fall steadily overnight, with a steeper drop off expected just before sunrise as dewpoints plummet and skies remain clear. Wind gusts have begun to relax a bit as gradients loosen, but sustained winds of 6 to 10mph are still common, and will lead to wind chill concerns by mid morning. Expect apparent temperature values to dip into the teens for most, with isolated single digits possible in the northern and western piedmont counties near sunrise. Cold temperatures will be main weather story during the day wednesday, as 850mb temps continue to drop and drier air mixes to the surface behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures will start the day in the low 20s before rising steadily into the upper thirties west to low forties east, remaining roughly 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. No precipitation of any type is expected during this period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Higher clouds will begin to mix in across the northern Piedmont Counties early Thursday as a short wave crosses the Appalachians, east across portions of the DELMARVA Peninsula, and eventually east into the Atlantic prior to sunrise. Forecast soundings continue to show the 500-700mb layer becoming a bit more saturated Wednesday evening in advance of the short wave, mainly north and east of Raleigh. However, the airmass below 700mb is forecast to remain dry. That said, while the moisture and lift in that layer would suggest some light precip between 7 PM and Midnight, given the dry air below the cloudy layer, it would be difficult to get any more than just a few flurries with no impacts. For now, have taken out mention of snow in these areas and just introduced scattered to broken cloud layers. Skies will clear out again after Midnight in the wake of the departing short wave, with lows from the mid 20s to around 30. Southwesterly flow returns during the day Thursday, allowing temperatures to inch closer to normal, especially for those who are a bit closer to the Atlantic Coastline. Expect 40s in the Piedmont Counties, 50 near RDU, and low to mid 50s as you progress east toward the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 615 AM Wednesday... Much of Friday and the weekend will be characterized by a flattening out of the upper trough to a more zonal pattern and a moderating trend to near normal temperatures as surface high pressure moves across the deep south and over the Carolinas. For the beginning of next week, a low pressure system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will move northeastward bringing rain chances to the area as early as Sunday night but more likely on Monday through Monday night. No threat of any wintry precipitation with this system as temperatures will be well into the 50s to near 60 degrees on Monday. The system may clear out by Monday night but the GFS is showing a secondary wave moving up the front and brining a second round of rain to the area on Tuesday. This is completely inconsistent with the ECMWF solution which does not show any wave whatsoever and thus keeps the forecast dry during this time. Have introduced very low slight chance pops at this time. Temperatures Tuesday remain in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees for highs.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1230 AM Wednesday... NEXT 24 HOURS: VFR+ conditions continue at all TAF sites, with little in the way of changes expected during the day Wednesday. A short wave looks to rotate north of the area Wednesday evening after dark, introducing 9,000+ ceilings at GSO/INT by Wednesday evening, and potentially some LLWS issues RWI/FAY. EXTENDED DISCUSSION: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday. A passing disturbance Wednesday evening will bring a period of mostly cloudy skies and spotty light precip though ceilings should remain VFR. Later in the weekend, another system will bring a slightly better chance for spotty rain showers, although ceilings are still expected to remain VFR.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM/NP LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...JM/WSS

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