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000
FXUS62 KRAH 141916 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
316 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

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Low pressure continues to spin off of the northern Outer Banks this
morning as high pressure builds over central NC. Dry conditions are
expected through Sunday with a cold front crossing the area on
Monday leading to cool and dry conditions for the remainder of the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM Saturday...

Almost all stratus has broken out west of I-95 this afternoon and
visible satellite shows the telltale signs of eroding in the east as
well. This will be complete in the next hour or two and then dry VFR
conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon.
Temperatures will most likely come out well under forecasted highs
with low to upper 70s across the area.

Overnight tonight expect another round of fog and low stratus
starting to build in after 6z with the lowest visibilities between 9-
13Z Sunday morning. Most locations should see at least IFR
conditions if not lower. Low temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM Saturday...

Sunday the high pressure breaks down ahead of a frontal system
advancing into the area from the northwest. By Sunday afternoon a
surface trough will set up across the area with southerly flow
brining warm air advection into central NC. This will boost high
temperatures back up into the low to mid 80s. Although there will be
increased moisture advection, conditions are still expected to be
dry at least through the afternoon. Rain chances will pick up Sunday
evening after 00z and into the overnight hours. Lows in the mid 50s
in the NW Piedmont to the mid 60s in the southeast with the numbers
in the Triad dependent upon how quickly the colder airmass moves
into the area.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday...

Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC
early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next
weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front,
sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for
producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage
will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for
deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers
reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in
the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon,
but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited -
probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As
such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier
folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but
the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air
advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in
the mid to upper 60s.

Much cooler and drier high pressure will build east and settle over
the eastern seaboard Tuesday and linger for the remainder of the
week. There will be a very gradual warming trend through the week as
the airmass modifies under strong insolation. Highs will bottom out
on Tuesday, reaching mainly mid 60s, then warm a couple of degrees
per day to reach the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday.
Sweaters will need to be pulled out of the mothballs, as mins tumble
into the low to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with
mostly mid to upper 40s Thursday through Saturday mornings.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Stratus is eroding quickly across the western
Piedmont this afternoon and expect GSO to break out momentarily and
INT in the next hour or so. In the east RDU has already broke out,
FAY in the next hour and KRWI may take 2 hours to erode but everyone
should be returning to VFR within the next couple of hours.

Dry forecast this afternoon with light and variable winds will
continue into the overnight hours. Both fog and low stratus will be
a problem at various times overnight for most locations with some
stations going down as early as 6z and continuing sub-VFR until at
least 14z but possibly as long as 16z. Southwesterly flow will pick
up Sunday afternoon ahead of the frontal system moving in from the
northwest.

Long Term: A cold front moving through the area on Monday will
present the opportunity for extended sub-VFR conditions with
generally light rain across the area. Conditions will return to VFR
on Tuesday and remain there through the work week.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ellis
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Ellis