Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200110 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 910 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 910 PM TUESDAY... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV PUSHING OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST HAS SHIFTED EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAS REALLY HIT THE SKIDS AS WELL...LIKELY STYMIED BY INCREASING SBCINH(75-150 UNITS)PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...ALONG WITH NOTED DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THUS WILL RETAIN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS A RESULT OF THE DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ACROSS THE NW (AROUND 60) WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...VERSUS OUR SE ZONES WHERE THE FROPA WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT AND THUS HAVE LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS SC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW. AS SUCH...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND INDUCE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE (PARTICULARLY HOW FAR NORTH) THAT WAVE WILL SET UP...BUT EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY... THURSDAY TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING... SPREADING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE WILL DEVELOP/DEEPEN ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER... THEN LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY... AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KTS WITH A BACKED SURFACE FLOW AS THE SURFACE APPROACHES. HOWEVER... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ON GOING SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WE WILL SEE IN THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. THUS...SPC HAS PLACED SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR SE/E COUNTIES IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS TEMPS ON THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 (MAYBE NOT COOL ENOUGH EVEN) NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER TO LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY AND QUIET WEATHER... WITH CLEARING/SUNNY SKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND ANY LINGERING COOL STABLE AIRMASS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SE. LOWS SATURDAY... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION... ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD AGAIN. THIS WILL YIELD A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND... 50S THIS WEEKEND TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD... WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCE NORTHWEST) AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN RETURN FLOW. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH OF THIS OCCURRENCE AND REGARDLESS COVERAGE WOULD BE TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS NOW. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE LAST TO ARRIVE...AND ESPECIALLY WHERE THE RAIN OCCURRED (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THEN...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND RAIN LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AFTERNOON. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...RAH

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