Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141854 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A 1028MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE POST- FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND WEVE SEEN A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST AT TIMES TODAY. THE MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT...MOSTLY AROUND THE 300K LEVEL...WILL REMAIN SHALLOW OVERNIGHT AS DRYING ABOVE 700MB CONTINUES. THUS...PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY WITH NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. WITH OVERCAST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY... MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGHEST. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONALLY AN AREA OF 20-30 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PERSISTING NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INITIALLY AND THEN REINFORCED WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK...WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME A STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST AND EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FL/GA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR A COOLER THAN AVERAGE PERIOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS BUT WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS INCLUDE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY RESULTING FROM SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A DISTURBANCE IN THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. BEYOND THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH LOWS INT THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -BLAES
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTENING THIS EVENING SHOULD CREATE MVFR CEILINGS...MOSTLY 2000- 3000 FT...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. SOME 1000-2000 FT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KFAY TO KRWI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BLS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...BLAES AVIATION...BLS

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