Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191343 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 943 AM EDT SUN MAR 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY... REST OF TODAY: ASIDE FROM LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN (E.G. HALIFAX COUNTY) THIS MORNING, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA THIS MORNING) PROGGED TO TRACK SE OFFSHORE THE NC COAST THIS AFT/EVE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO ~60F (WARMEST SW PIEDMONT) ACROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC, EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S IN THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN. TONIGHT: PATCHY FROST (PERHAPS A LIGHT FREEZE IN RURAL/LOW-LYING AREAS) WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE MSLP GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WINDS GO CALM (FIRST IN THE NW PIEDMONT AND LAST IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN) IN THE PRESENCE OF CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S, COLDEST IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KTTA, KVUJ, KTDF, KEXX, KSOP, KHNZ. THE SPRING FROST/FREEZE WARNING/ADVISORY PROGRAM IS SCHEDULED TO START MARCH 27. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE CONVEYED VIA THE HWO. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A RAPID WARMING TREND. CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE FAVORED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY 40S FOR LOWS WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY... A LOW AMPLITUDE S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, IN THE INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, WITH LOWS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NE TO NEAR 50 FAR S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT (WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING), RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS, WITH POSSIBLY A SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING TO FREEZING OR JUST BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND, WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CHANCE OF MORNING STRATUS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD HOLD TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST OR NORTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NE TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST, WITH 50S EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BY THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE, GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND 30S FOR FRIDAY MORNING. SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER GENERALLY AROUND 50.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...VINCENT

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