Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230736 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 335 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low will move across the area today, before tracking along the East Coast and away from the region on Tuesday. A strong upper level ridge will then build over the Southeast through the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
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As of 335 AM Monday... An upper level low centered over south-central VA will continue to move southeast over eastern NC this morning and then quickly offshore today. The last in a series of disturbances rounding the upper low is currently over eastern KY and will swing across th Carolinas today. Some convection will be possible again, with higher probability in the northern Coastal Plain as a slug of deeper moisture drops south out of VA this morning, before height rises strengthen in earnest behind the departing low this evening. Despite moderately steep mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km within the upper low, instability is projected to be weak, especially int he northeast CWA given cloud cover and limited heating. Deep layer shear will generally be weak within the upper low, but 20-30kt around the southern/western fringe of the CWA could support an isolated strong storm capable of producing hail with the freezing level down below 8k ft. Highs are expected to range from the mid/upper 60s east, where clouds and the 850mb thermal trough will have the most impact, to the lower 70s in the west. Height rise aloft and high pressure building in from the west will rapidly diminish precip coverage this evening, while skies slowly clear behind the departing upper trough. lows in the low/mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
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As of 325 PM Sunday... Updated shortly
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&& .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Conditions are expected to dry out on Tuesday as the upper low pulls further away and shortwave ridging builds over the region. As the low pulls away, the building ridge will keep the main storm track to our north and west, resulting in mostly dry conditions through the majority of the long term period. There are indications that the ridge may weaken some towards the end of the forecast period, allowing an uptick in mostly diurnal type convection. However, given the model disagreement (the GFS, which is known the break ridges down too quickly, breaks down the ridge, while the ECMWF holds strong), will just show a little increase in cloud cover and will bring in a slight chance of precip at the very end of the forecast period. Otherwise, temps will gradually warm up to above normal, from mostly lower 80s on Tuesday to mid/upper 80s for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/... As of 135 AM Monday... The main aviation concern today is an area of low clouds moving south out of VA early this morning, which will impact areas east of KRDU through at least mid-morning. MVFR ceilings are most likely at KRWI, with a period of IFR and scattered showers after 12z. Showers will be more isolated to the west, especially west of KRDU, where cloud bases are more likely to be in the 3000-4000ft range. An 8- 12kt northerly wind will prevail for much of the day, becoming light and variable tonight as low pressure moves off the NC coast and VFR conditions return areawide. Long term: VFR conditions will be predominate this week as high pressure builds over the region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...22

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