Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301742 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY... THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY BURNING OFF/LIFTING THIS MORNING. THEN...A MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY IS HARD TO DISTINGUISH THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE SEABREEZE (AND ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES) AND THUS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE...AND NEAR THE COAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PERSISTENT RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 257 AM SATURDAY... UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST REAL "EXTEND" TIME THIS SUMMER OVER NC. THEREFORE... ANY SURFACE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH... LIKELY STALLING OVER VA OR NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WE WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR HIGHS/LOWS... AND VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR PM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN) DURING SUMMER. EXPECT DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 88-94 NW TO SANDHILLS WITH LOWS 68-73. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOWEST TUE (15-20 PERCENT)... THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY WED-FRI (30-40) PERCENT. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE. THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...KRD

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