-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 271603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO
NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH
REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT
LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND
STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW.

A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO
(10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10
DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS
IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND
WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE
THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED.

DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO
DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT
EAST WITH TIME.

THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS
REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD
ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT
WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700
MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE KRWI AREA
AND IS NOW CONFINED NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY ENDED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL BE PICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS