Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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632 FXUS62 KRAH 181541 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1030 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will build into the region today into Friday. The high pressure will shift to our south Saturday bringing a milder SW flow for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1030 AM Thursday... Little changes with the morning update. Tweaked temperatures a bit to better match current observations. Planning to allow the WWA to expire on time at noon, with consideration in the issuence of an additional advisory for black ice overnight tonight into Friday. Previous Valid Discussion... ...Winter Weather Advisory for slick roads through Noon Thursday... ...Another Winter Weather Advisory for Black Ice is likely for tonight. We will hold off until the current advisory expires at noon. Bitter cold this morning with temperatures tanking due to clear skies and deep, fresh snow cover over much of the region. Greensboro was already in the single digits at 300 AM, nearing a daily record low for January 18 (6 degrees, recorded in 1994). Roads remained snow and ice packed over most of the region after the big snow event over the Piedmont. Arctic air has poured in behind the system and will bring lows down in the 5-15 range this morning. Sunny skies with a westerly flow at 10-15 mph expected today. Highs will only reach the mid 30s most areas, to lower 40s SE. This would be an achievement given the snow cover and the arctic air mass in place. Clear skies tonight along with continued snow cover will yield another very cold night. Winds should die off with the arctic high center nearing (but remaining to our SW). The light westerly flow may help offset what would could be exceptional radiational cooling again. Lows 10-20.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday... The freeze/thaw/freeze/thaw process will be aided by warm sunshine and moderating temperatures Friday. Highs should struggle to reach 50 in the snow cover region of the Piedmont (mid 40s), ranging into the lower 50s south. Lows with clear skies and light winds Friday night generally in the 20s. We will undercut MOS guidance some with excellent radiational cooling of cold ground and dry air mass (dew points in the 15-25 range). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Moderating temperatures will continue Saturday with highs in the 50s with mainly sunny skies. Lows will still be cold again Saturday night as high pressure lingers. Light winds, dry air, and cold grounds should yield lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A storm system will move NE from the Great Plains to the western Great Lakes Monday. The associated cold front is forecast to move through NC Monday. The associated cold front will cross our region Monday night and early Tuesday. Much milder air will bring a chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. .AVIATION /06z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1250 AM Thursday... 24-Hour TAF Period: A return to VFR conditions is expected between 07- 10Z for all the region. VFR conditions expected under high pressure today through Friday. Looking ahead: VFR conditions will persist through Saturday. Forecast soundings hint at some low-level moisture Saturday night, otherwise the next chance of sub-VFR conditions will be Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...JJM/Badgett SHORT TERM...BSD/Badgett LONG TERM...BSD/Badgett AVIATION...Badgett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.