Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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922 FXUS62 KRAH 232335 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 735 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and northeast states will extend south into our region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Saturday... A weak broad upper trough over the SE US will drift west today and tonight with central NC becoming under the increasing influence of the stacked anticyclone expanding eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Region. This will allow for dry conditions and a nearly cloud free sky, aside from some very thin patchy cirrus clouds. Some patchy fog will again be possible with overnight lows generally in the lower to mid 60s, with even a few upper 50s in the cold rural areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Stacked ridging and associated subsidence will support a dry and stable air mass with a continuation of above-normal temperatures across central NC. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria will track north through the open waters of the Western Atlantic. As pressure gradient begins to tighten up ever so slightly, a steady 5 to 10 mph northerly breeze will make it very pleasant, despite the warm temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Expect gradual overspreading high cloudiness well ahead of hurricane Maria as early as Monday night. The official track has been gradually nudged west, and the latest forecast would still keep Maria far enough offshore to preclude significant impacts aside from gustiness from 20 to 25 mph in the Coastal Plain Tuesday and Wednesday. Will introduce a slight chance of showers in the coastal plain as well on Tuesday and Wednesday to account for the potential of banded convection wrapping into the area. Highs will continue to reach the mid and upper 80s through Thursday after morning lows in the mid and upper 60s. A long wave trof amplifying down the Ohio Valley will drive Maria offshore late week, and we will have a welcome airmass change as an initial surge of dry cooler air drives east on Friday. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling further as the trof continues to amplify, with highs next weekend solidly in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ As of 730 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with an outside chance of some MVFR fog overnight but confidence very low after looking at very dry forecast soundings. Some wind gusts of 15-20 kts are possible on Sunday afternoon at eastern terminals. Otherwise expect 5-10 kts sustained out of the northeast. Outlook: VFR conditions through mid-week may be in jeopardy if the track of Hurricane Maria begins to shift closer to the coast. Therefore expect the possibility of some showers and breezy conditions in the east by late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.