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246
FXUS62 KRAH 060645
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Storm Chantal will drift slowly north northwestward across
the coast of South Carolina this morning. The remnant low pressure
system will then drift slowly north to northeastward across central
North Carolina this afternoon through early Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

* Scattered showers and isolated storms still expected along and
  east of Hwy 1 through tonight.

Surface high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast this
afternoon will continue to extend SW through the NC Piedmont into
early this evening, although this ridge (and its comparatively lower
dewpoints as compared to the Coastal Plain) will be steadily
overcome and supplanted by the encroaching Tropical Storm Chantal,
located about 100 mi SE of CHS this afternoon and drifting slowly to
the N. The current bands of tropical convection now pushing westward
over our SE are feeding on moderate CAPE, but with poor deep layer
shear. The downturn in CAPE after nightfall should result in a
relative dip in coverage later this evening. Deeper moisture (as
seen on GOES layer WV) and higher PWs (~2.0-2.4") sitting over the
NC coastal areas will spread steadily inland through tonight,
although pockets of somewhat drier air aloft over our NW should
temporarily limit the westward extent of showers through tonight.
Skies should trend to partly (W) to mostly (E) cloudy overnight with
rising rain chances mainly along and E of Hwy 1, highest in the SE
(e.g., CTZ/GSB), and isolated to no pops in the NW. After highs
today in the mid 80s to lower 90s, lows tonight should be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Saturday...

* Slight risk of excessive rainfall over much of central NC
  Sun/Sun night, with amounts of 1-4 inches possible.

* Marginal severe storm risk over our southeast areas Sun/Sun night
  for the threat of an isolated tornado or two.

TS Chantal is expected to make landfall over the central or northern
coast of SC early Sun morning before tracking northward then NE,
reaching the E Sandhills Sun evening as a depression, then moving
roughly along the I-95 corridor through E NC through Sun night. By
this time, both the strong/deep Atlantic moisture flux and the
surface wind field are likely to have weakened from their current
state. However, in this tropical environment, PW is still expected
to be well above normal, 2.2-2.5" across the CWA, with a deep LCL-0C
layer aoa 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and supporting the risk
of heavy rainfall. Many of the recent CAM runs show the heavier rain
areas spreading west of the center over the Piedmont Sun, and in
particular our far S and SW sections (including some flashy streams
like the Rocky River) could see multiple inches of rain through Sun
night. There is still too much uncertainty in coverage and amounts
for a flood watch at this time, however one may be needed tonight or
Sun morning if these CAM trends hold. Regarding the surface winds
and severe threat, while the surface wind field will have spread out
and decreased, a few stronger gusts remain possible, esp in and near
convective cells with substantial vertical growth as higher winds
aloft mix groundward. Models do show decent (25-35 kt) low level
southeasterly jetting to the E and NE of the storm`s center, nosing
into our Coastal Plain and E Sandhills counties Sun into Sun
evening, and this resultant brief curvature to the hodographs could
support a weak spinup or two in our SE, esp if we can achieve any
CAPE between tropical rainbands. Expect likely to categorical pops
CWA-wide, which is a notable westward push from earlier forecasts.
Given the more expansive cloud cover and precip, have nudged highs
down a bit to 80-85. Lows around 70 to the mid 70s, with pops
trending down and shifting into mainly NE sections as the remnant
low center tracks through the E CWA overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 245 AM Sunday...

* Hot and humid on Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 90s with a
  few of the typically hotter spots threatening the upper 90s. It
  will be humid as well with heat index values of 100 to 105 across
  much of the area except the Triad where it will be a touch cooler.

* Largely diurnally driven convection is expected for the second
  half of the work week into the weekend with the greatest rain
  chances on Thursday and Friday.

* It will be continued hot on Wednesday, likely a few degrees cooler
  than Tuesday. High temperatures will then cool off for Thursday
  and Friday with a good deal of cloud cover and rain chances.

Weak ridging will become established across the Southeastern U.S. on
Tuesday. With morning low level thickness values in the 1420s, high
temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s across much of the
area. A few of the hotter spots such as Maxton and Raleigh may make
it into the upper 90s. The hottest ENS member has a high of 99 at
RDU. Will need to monitor the need for a heat advisory with heat
index values of 100 to 105 currently forecast across much of the
area at this point with the potential for heat index values to be a
little higher. A few afternoon and evening storms are possible on
Tuesday but coverage should be much more limited than the Wednesday
through Friday period.

The threat of mainly afternoon and evening storms increases for
Wednesday through Friday period as the westerlies drop into the
Great Lakes and OH Valley on Wednesday and then push east toward the
Appalachians on Friday. An associated cold front approaches on
Thursday and moves into the region on Friday. These forcing
mechanisms along with PW values of around 2.0 inches or greater will
support an active period with above climatology PoPs. With the
increased cloud cover and rain chances along with a slightly cooler
airmass arriving late in this period, highs on Thursday and
especially Friday will range near or slightly below average.
Friday`s highs should range in the mid 80s to around 90.

The pattern becomes more uncertain over the weekend as the cold
front is forecast to drop into the region and then persist across
the Carolinas through the weekend. Forecasting the passage and
position of cold fronts in our region at longer ranges during the
summer can trying, so confidence is limited in forecast details for
the weekend. -Blaes
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 212 AM Sunday...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal will bring widespread showers
with embedded storms across the terminals, earliest at FAY and
latest at GSO/INT. Ahead of the more widespread showers/storms, an
area of IFR-MVFR ceilings is favored into Sun morning with increased
low-level onshore flow. The heavier bands of showers and storms is
favored between the late morning and early evening hours, with the
highest confidence of TSRA at FAY, RWI, and RDU, where IFR or lower
restrictions are possible. These sites as well could briefly improve
to VFR outside of storms. The Triad terminals (GSO/INT) should see
MVFR to IFR rain, especially after 18z and through the end of the
TAF period. Waves of showers and some storms may continue to the end
of the TAF period. Regardless, IFR or lower ceilings are favored
between 03-06z with low-level saturation from the gradual departure
of Chantal. NE winds may gust at times into the teens to around 20
kt, especially at FAY.

Outlook: After Chantal exits early Mon, a humid airmass will favor
areas of morning stratus and fog and afternoon-evening
showers/storms through most of this coming week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT this morning through late tonight
for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042-073>078-083>086-088-089.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Kren/MWS