Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280707 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... HIGH PROBABILITY OF A DRY DAY WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR CENTRAL NC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... AND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN NY/PA NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH DEEPLY DRY AIR FILTERING IN... INCLUDING FALLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN THROUGH THE 50S... AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SE AND THE LACK OF BOTH FORECAST CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST. HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO OUR WEST... PARTICULARLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... BUT MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY WEST SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY. THICKNESSES AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S... VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AROUND 60-65. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY... DRY WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO CONTINUE... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE THICKENING CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLIP EASTWARD OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH A WEAK MODIFIED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF AND SETTLE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT NIGHT... KEEPING THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO STAY AOB 1 INCH INTO SAT EVENING... ALTHOUGH SW SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE PW HEAD BACK UP TOWARD 1.25-1.5 INCHES AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INLAND ACROSS GA AND SC INTO AL AND SW NC. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MS/AL... DRAWING INCREASED DPVA ACROSS GA INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BUT MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL HOLD WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WITH NO TRIGGER TO FORCE ASCENT... AND DESPITE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90... PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE TODAY`S HIGHS AS THICKNESSES RISE WHILE STAYING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. LOWS 63-68 SAT NIGHT WITH A TREND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY... UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN GULF STATES WILL EJECT NORTH AS IT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE RETROGRESSING ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NC ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HIGH CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO FORCING OF NOTE...AND WE ALSO REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO FURTHER HINDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO INDUCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MID WEEK PERIOD...NO SURPRISE HERE...WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. ONGOING TRACK FORECAST BRINGS IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAVE US IN THE WARM AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY QUADRANT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 7 FORECAST AS THE TC OR REMNANTS THEREOF WILL BE CUT OFF FROM STEERING FLOW AND MIGHT MEANDER SLIGHTLY INLAND...EDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE...OR WANDER OFF TO POINTS UNFORESEEN AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TIER PENDING LATER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED AIRMASS...PERHAPS TEMPERED A BIT BY THE CLOUD SHIELD...LOOKING AT MOSTLY MID 80S.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15 KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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