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000
FXUS62 KRAH 140209
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 1005 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: AFTER 126 SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS IN CENTRAL NC (AT
LAST COUNT) TODAY... MOST OF THEM WIND DAMAGE... THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS OVER CUMBERLAND/BLADEN/SAMPSON
COUNTIES. HERE IT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE (MUCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG) WITH GOOD 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND DECENT DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DPVA AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. BUT CIN HAS RETURNED WITH STABILIZING MID LEVELS AND LOWER
SURFACE-925 MB DEW POINTS. ONCE THIS CLUSTER CLEARS THE SE CWA...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT (SEEN UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) AND STABILIZATION ESPECIALLY 700-500 MB... YIELDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE NEAR OR SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE HELD
LOWS AROUND 60-67... WHICH AGREES WITH ADJUSTED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND CURRENT TRENDS. -GIH

FRIDAY...IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STRONG LOW...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT IN PLACES
WITH MIXING. THESE VALUES SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND K INDICES SHOW A
BRIEF INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 85KT 300MB AND 55KT
500MB JET...DIVERGENCE AT 850MB AND STABLE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. BUFR SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW HIGH SC OR LOW AC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AT LEAST FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. -DJF
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY LOWER 60S...BUT SOME UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. BY MONDAY...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE WILL REALLY BEGIN TO SEE OUR
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH PWAT VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MOSTLY DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRAILING FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
NC/SC BORDER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BE WHAT
ULTIMATELY DRIVES OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME POPS (MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE)
IN FOR THIS TIME FRAME AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....SOME WITH WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 KTS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST NEAR FAYETTEVILLE
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO WHILE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED
AT THE REMAINING TAF LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF ALTO-STRATUS AND
ALTO-CUMULUS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY AT AROUND 10KT WILL GUST UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES AND BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY BY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...FAIR WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME MORNING
STRATUS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...BLAES