Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020139 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 940 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY... AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY... ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)... EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION... POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID- UPPER 60S. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY... ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200 PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FFW OR TWO. IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY- MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW... DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC. GIVEN THE THE ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR. LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...KC

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