-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 101131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
731 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF OF
MEXICO WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR REGION DRY. WITH CONTINUED WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST (DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGH
OVER THE AREA)...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY (COMPARED TO HIGHS
OBSERVED ON SUNDAY)...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE (MAYBE A
FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST). MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED... GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY (COMPARED TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TODAY)...AND WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WE SHOULD SEE OUR WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK. WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S (MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL OPEN UP AND DEAMPLIFY AS CROSSES
THE GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN OFF THE SE COAST
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE REMNANT VORT CENTER LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA...IT DOES APPEAR TO EFFECTIVELY TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS...TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.2-1.3". THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TUESDAY EVENING WITH WAA SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE 40-50KT WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FEED.

THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP/POPS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
STRONG SLUG OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA EXITING OFFSHORE DURING THE
MORNING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT...ITS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL...WITH BOTH THE
LATEST GFS AN EC HAVING TREND MUCH DRIER. INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS
TO BE LACKING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING
PROFILES AND FORECAST OF BL DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S...SO THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL DEPEND OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE TO WARM UP
A BIT IF THERE IS INDEED A LULL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH STRONG CAA
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20
NW TO MID 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

AN OLD TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER
WILL RETURN...FEATURING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WITH
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
INITIALLY... NEGATIVE H5 ANOMALIES ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER AND EVEN PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE BETTER RAINS CHANCE ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL DISSIPATE/LIFT IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE UPPER
TEENS (KNOTS) POSSIBLE. ONLY SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS PRECIP INTO THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD