-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
426
FXUS62 KRAH 151050
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the
Carolinas throughout the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...

Updated the forecast to beef POP significantly from Davidson to Wake
and Franklin Counties were moisture pooling was occurring on the
southern edge of the H925 to H850 front. PWs were in excess of
2 inches from near RDU into SE VA. There was also lingering
instability in this region with moisture convergence at the
surface due to previous southward moving outflows. CAMS
are finally picking up on some of the convection especially around
the Triangle, which should persist a few hours this morning during
the rush. Slow moving storms will pose an isolated flash flood
threat around portions of the Triangle.

Isolated flash flooding will be possible again this afternoon and
evening with the region in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) of
excessive rainfall.

Antecedent wet ground will result in easier and quicker flash flood
potential with the heavier downpours, especially over the western
and northern Piedmont.

The Triad area appears most vulnerable to potential isolated flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Even though all of our region
is in the marginal risk of excessive rainfall, the NW Piedmont has
the higher probabilities of additional thunderstorms today per most
guidance and the latest CAMS. This region is also the wettest with
the past few days bringing plenty of heavy rain events. Greensboro
was already approaching 8 inches of rain for the month and it is not
even half over yet. This is already double the monthly 30 year
average. In addition, Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop again this afternoon and linger well into the evening. The
focus will be on the western and northern Piedmont locations where
basin averages of around 1 inch can be expected QPF wise. However,
some locations will likely top 2-3 inches locally. This would
produce additional flash flooding. The heaviest rains are not
expected to be widespread, limiting the potential scope of the flash
flooding to mainly localized or urban areas. To the east and south,
widely scattered storms are expected with locally 1+ inch of rain.
The instability is expected to be less today than in previous days
limiting the severe damaging wind threat. However, an isolated
damaging wind gust with the stronger cores. Highs will generally be
87-92. Lows tonight should be 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Lower chance of PM storms, but remaining hot and humid.

The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and
north on Wednesday with the upper ridge building in the
southeast U.S. from off the SW Atlantic. This should limit the
convection to widely scattered PM activity. The highest probabilities
will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along
the Blue Ridge. Highs will be a few degrees warmer with partly to
mostly sunny afternoon skies (90-95). Lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

* Hot temperatures, probably a degree or three higher than NBM ones
  used to populate the current official forecast, will remain
  anomalously warm and well in the 70s each night and yield Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk through the forecast period.

* Only very localized outflow relief from the heat may briefly grow
  in coverage Sat, when diurnal convection may attain maximum
  coverage in cntl NC

A sub-tropical anticyclone will progress from the swrn N. Atlantic
to the Southeast through the weekend, with perhaps some minimally
decreasing heights across the srn Middle Atlantic Sat-Mon, when the
models hint that a weakness may develop between the center of that
ridge and another forecast to progress across the sub-tropical N.
Atlantic. Such a solution would cause mid-level flow to assume a
more wnwly component and direct shortwave impulses and/or MCV into
at least the nrn half of NC by Sat.

At the surface, high pressure will span from near Bermuda to the
South Atlantic coast, with varying degrees of troughing on its
wrn/nwrn periphery, in the lee of the srn and cntl Appalachians, and
also a daily sea breeze. A convective outflow-reinforced front may
briefly settle across VA and perhaps nern NC on Sat, as the
aforementioned flow aloft veers and introduces the possibility of
very weakly falling heights aloft.

The increasingly-influential, subsident ridging aloft will tend to
suppress diurnal convection away from the Blue Ridge/terrain
forcing, Piedmont trough, and sea breeze, and related small outflows
through at least Fri - with probably only scattered coverage along
those features. Sat will offer the relative highest probability of
diurnal convection, when the aforementioned outflow-reinforced front
will probably make its closest approach. It will otherwise remain
hot and humid, with high temperatures generally a couple of
categories above average and low temperatures two to three
categories above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 AM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms may persist over portions of the region
through 12z-14z, before finally dying off. The RDU area will have
the higher chances of showers/storms. Otherwise, generally VFR
conditions will give way to the development of IFR to LIFR stratus
at many locations. This stratus will lift out between 13z and 14z.
Expect another chance of showers/storms this afternoon and evening,
with the higher probabilities from the Triad to the Triangle between
18z and 05z.

Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western Atlantic will
favor a typical summertime regime of scattered PM convection and
patchy late night and early morning fog/stratus through late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Badgett