Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241658 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and drift into central North Carolina tonight. The front will drift slowly southeast toward the coast Sunday, and offshore Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... Little change required to the near term forecast. Latest meso analysis depicts the best low level moisture advection aimed across our southern counties. Deep wly flow over the north half will initially deter convective development but this will change by mid afternoon as the flow eventually taps moisture residing over the foothills. Still expect the bulk of the convection to initially fire over the southern Piedmont into the Sandhills between 17Z-20Z, with additional development across the remainder of the Piedmont, including the Triad and Triangle regions, between 20Z-23Z. With 0- 6km shear values on the order of 35-40kts, and MLCAPE values 1500- 2000 J/kg across the Sandhills, a few severe thunderstorms appear likely with the main threat damaging wind gusts and large hail. The scattered convection will likely persist well into the overnight hours, particularly south and east of Raleigh. Strong heating prior to convective initiation will boost temperatures well into the 80s to around 90 degrees. With sfc dewpoints near 70/lower 70s, heat indices will likely be in the mid- upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday... Dry weather is generally expected for a large portion of the area for Sunday, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast area, near the stalled frontal zone to the south and east of the forecast area. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far s/se. Dry weather will continue into Sunday night/Monday morning, with low temps generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region. Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s, with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. Lows Tuesday morning area expected to be in the 60-65 degree range. A more pronounced mid/upper level disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night are expected to generally be in the mid to upper 50s. Surface high pressure will move across the area midweek and set up shop offshore by late week. This will yield a warming trend back to seasonal norms by the end of the week, with chances for mainly diurnal convection slowly increasing by the end of the period (though most if not all of the area will remain dry from Tuesday late evening onward). && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/... As of 100 PM Saturday... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across central NC this afternoon ahead of a cold front. These showers and storms will cause MVFR/briefly IFR parameters and will affect all TAF sites primarily between 20Z-01Z. The threat for convection will decrease in vicinity of the Triad by 01Z, and near KRDU by 02Z. the possibility of showers and an isolated thunderstorm will persist in the vicinity of KRWI and KFAY through 07Z. The cold front will drift sewd across central NC overnight through Sunday morning. The passage of the front will be noted by the sfc winds veering from the southwest to a north northwest direction. Drier air behind the front will lead to improving aviation conditions. VFR parameters are expected across central NC Sunday afternoon through Thursday. The exception will be Tuesday when an upper disturbance passes overhead, triggering a few showers and possibly MVFR ceilings. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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