


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --526 FXUS62 KRAH 130619 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 219 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --An outflow-reinforeced, backdoor front will dissipate over eastern and central VA and NC through Monday. Sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the upcoming week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 110 PM Saturday... * Marginal risk of isolated damaging winds into this evening for areas mainly west of US-1 * Excessive rainfall possible nearly anywhere this evening, but widespread flooding potential not expected Temperatures should continue to climb into the late afternoon hours with highs topping out in the low to middle 90s. A few locales across portions of the Triangle and Sandhills could briefly reach heat indices of 104-105, but this is not expected to be prolonged. As for storm chances into this evening, model guidance and ensemble data suggest two primary focus areas, one over the eastern part of the state, and a second across the mountains. The former may be tied to a developing sea-breeze pushing inland with resultant outflows. The latter across the mountains appears tied to a weak surface trough situated in western NC. Both of these areas will be the focus for convergence for storm development. It would appear storms across the mountains will be more widespread, with some of those reaching the Triad and western Piedmont this evening, dying off by late evening due to loss of heating. Regardless, resultant outflows from either forcing areas could produce an isolated or scattered storm or two over central NC into late evening with modest buoyancy over 2000 J/kg. Overall coverage appears limited. Shear is weak, but mesoanalysis and point forecast soundings suggest high DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, supportive of wet microbursts and resultant damaging winds, especially west of US-1. While widespread flooding potential is not expected, rain that falls over still saturated soils, mainly in the Piedmont, will be favorable for isolated flash flooding. After any storms die out later this evening, some patchy fog is possible over areas that saw rain, with lows in the low/mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM Saturday... * Heat indices upper 90s western Piedmont, to 100 to 104 along/east of US-1. * Storm chances increase ahead of a weak cold front and shear axis * Isolated flash flooding and a localized damaging wind threat possible A weak surface cold front over the OH valley will slowly slide east across western portions of the Mid-Atlantic and TN valley, tied to a weak trough to our NW. While the trough will stay to our north over the Great Lakes and OH valley, a subtle shear axis will be present over the area. The closer proximity of the front will also help shift the convergence axis for showers and storms to more of central NC, as opposed to western NC on our Sat. Scattered showers and storms should be diurnally driven once again with weak shear. Precipitable water values will increase above 2 inches and high DCAPE will again combine with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE for a localized damaging wind threat and flash flood potential. Highs should again be warm and muggy in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices are favored in the upper 90s in the west, to 100 to 104 along/east of US-1. Cannot rule out a few areas of the Triangle and Coastal Plain that briefly reach heat advisory criteria. Storms should gradually decay by late evening as convective overturning/stabilization takes shape. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 PM Saturday... * Flash flood threat continues into early next week Mon and Tue * Isolated severe downbursts possible Mon and Tue * Heat and humidity throughout the week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s along/east of US-1 The aforementioned trough to our north on Sun will slide into the Mid-Atlantic early next week Mon and Tue, before weakening by Wed. The trough will largely stay to our north, but its shear axis and a weakening surface front over the Appalachians will keep the focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms for the beginning of the coming week. Precipitable water values will also be above the 90th percentile aoa 2 inches during this time, supporting the continued threat of flash flooding, especially over still saturated soils of central NC. The wettest period based on a suite of guidance appears to be Mon and Tue, when the trough and front are closer to the region. During this time also, a few isolated storms could produce severe downbursts as some AI guidance suggests still favorable wet microbursts. Come midweek, Bermuda high pressure will strengthen, the front will have died out, and southerly moist flow will be the dominant synoptic pattern. Storm chances on Wed and Thu will still be in the forecast, but probably the more typical summertime diurnally driven chances, closer to climatology, During this time as well, heat indices may get close to advisory criteria, in the absence of storms. By late week Fri and Sat, ensembles and some deterministic solutions indicate that another trough and frontal system may try to approach, especially by the upcoming weekend. This should favor another uptick in storm chances above climatology, especially late Fri and Sat. As for temperatures, highs will generally range in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the low/mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 215 AM Sunday... A convective outflow-reinforced, backdoor front, now stretching in an arc from near LYH to RDU to EWN ,will focus areas of fog and low stratus on its cool side this morning (ie. from nern NC through cntl and ern VA), including primarily at RWI. Some may reach, briefly, as far wwd as RDU around 12Z. Scattered aft-eve convection with heavy rain, strong downburst wind, and brief flight restrictions can otherwise be expected by 18-20Z. Outlook: Areas of morning stratus and fog will be favored along and on the cool side of a backdoor front that will dissipate over ern and cntl NC and VA through Mon. Sub-tropical high pressure over the western and swrn N. Atlantic will otherwise favor a typical summertime regime of scattered aft-eve convection and patchy fog/stratus, with the latter likely to shift from the Coastal Plain (ie. RWI and FAY) early week to the wrn Piedmont and Foothills (ie. GSO/INT) by mid-week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...Kren LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...MWS