Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201852 AFDRAH FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID- ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES). FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 203 PM SATURDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY-SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TAF SITES (KFAY AND KRWI)...WHERE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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