Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 310037 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 736 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF ANYWHERE FROM 20-30MPH CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE TREND IN GUSTS WILL BE DOWNWARD...MIXING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST SUNSET...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE 1034MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL BE BUILDING EASTWARD AND AS WINDS WEAKEN ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT COULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FOR A FEW HOURS. IF SO...12Z THICKNESSES SUGGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUPPORT LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 20S...WITH MID AND UPPER 20S TO EAST WHERE WIND WILL STAY UP LONGER. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A LEE TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. 12Z THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 1280M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...WARMEST SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF THE SC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN THE EAST AWAY FROM THE MORE DENSE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S EAST TO AROUND 30 WEST. -BLS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... AND INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL BRING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY... AROUND 50. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE MIDWEST... LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THIS TIME... LEADING TO A LIKELY NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND... WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 40S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 309 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... POTENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME. GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 720 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT MIXING COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VIA DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND... BECOMING MORE VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY. LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLS NEAR TERM...BLS/BLS SHORT TERM...BLS/SEC LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...BSD/BLS

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