Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 120639 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 239 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... A RELATIVELY DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE ASSOC/W THE SEABREEZE (SOUTHEAST) AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS (WEST). EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 90F. LOWS ALSO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70F. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SUN/SUN NIGHT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT IN ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS N/NW OF THE TRIANGLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 157 AM SATURDAY... AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SLATED BY THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE POP FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION... A SQUALL LINE POTENTIALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING OR NIGHT FROM THE NW. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POP MAY END UP BEING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR REGION IN THE LATEST RUNS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... KEEPING POP UP IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE... MUCH MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION WED-THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE... WITH HIGHS 80-85 W-F. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY AT THE RWI/FAY TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUN/MON AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS SUNDAY AFT/EVE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...VINCENT

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