Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 301830 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST... ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY... WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT 23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO 74F. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE. THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...KRD

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