Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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271
FXUS62 KRAH 071553
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1053 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY...

...SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
JOHNSTON...WAYNE...WILSON...HARNETT...CUMBERLAND...SAMPSON
COUNTIES THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS REPORTED
FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SLEET...

MSAS SHOWS A ~1003MB SURFACE LOW EAST OF CHARLESTON SC THIS
MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A 553DM UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN.  THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
EXTENDS THROUGH  THE NC COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE TEMP PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PTYPES...A SLIGHT WARM NOSE OF 1-2C AT
5K FT AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 33-35F RANGE.  HOWEVER...IN THE PAST
HOUR OR SO THE RATES HAVE BEEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR MELTING AND
WETBULBING TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF PREDOMINATELY SLEET IN
WILSON....WAYNE...JOHNSTON...AND NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTIES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE COUNTIES GIVEN
NUMEROUS TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS.  DUAL POL CC SUGGESTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS RALEIGH AND SANFORD AS WELL.
RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SMALL WARM NOSE CONTINUING TO COOL
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SO ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLY THAT PERIODS OF
MODERATE SLEET MAY PRODUCE A HALF INCH OF SO SLEET....WITH ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF QPF STILL POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIP BAND PIVOTS OVER
THE AREA.

A DOWNWARD TEND IN PRECIP...ALBEIT LIKELY VERY SLOW...IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND
THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 AM SUNDAY...

REGARDLESS OF HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A COASTAL LOW WOBBLES AS IT
BOMBS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE
RESULTANT DEEP CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE NC COAST TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A
"KICKER" VORTEX AND ACCOMPANYING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SHORT
WAVELENGTH FLOW ALOFT...FORECAST TO PIVOT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON. CLEARING SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

AN AREA OF BROAD BUT STRONG 100-150 METER HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING/FGEN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POCKET OF
STEEP (7.5 C/KM) 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT THE
EASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A "WARMING" DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...INCLUDING A SSW SURFACE BREEZE AND TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WILL ENSURE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL FALL AS RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MILLER-B SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MOVING
OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY EVENING....MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF
TRANSITION/CHANGE-OVER TO A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES BEFORE PRECIP ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO LOWER 30S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 1M SUNDAY...

MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE...BUT PERIODS OF STRONG DCVA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STOUT VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS
DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE(H5 ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW
NORMAL)ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY HERE WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE -12 TO -15C RANGE AND LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT TO AROUND 1240M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70
METERS BELOW NORMAL! HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THIS WARMING TREND WILL NOT LAST LONG AS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING A
REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FROZEN PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER SINCE MOISTURE IS TYPICALLY LIMITED IN NW FLOW EVENTS...WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH VFR CIGS NW TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EXPECTED FROM KFAY TO KRWI THROUGH
21Z... THEN IMPROVING AS RAIN ENDS. WHILE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE...WE STILL HAVE CHALLENGES OF HOW FAR NW
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. IF THE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE KRDU
AREA... IT WOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 13Z-18Z
OR SO. THE PRECIP WILL STAY TO THE SE OF THE KGSO AREA.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE TODAY...
TO 10-20KT FROM THE NORTH. GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE KFAY AREA EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT.

CLEARING TO VFR TONIGHT AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS....ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS...LATE MONDAY... AND AGAIN MAINLY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ042-043-077-078-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...CBL/XXX



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