Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 291832
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM MONDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO IT.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS UNSEASONABLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINTS
BEGIN CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEY THEY COULD IMPACT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
SHARPENS DURING THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL NC TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING
AND THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER TROUGH AND BETTER FORCING SO
WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDES INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE WANE AS THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE ARRIVING JUST AFTER
PEAK HEATING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 88 TO 94 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST WITH A LONG
WAVE  TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
PATTERN REFLECTS A SIMILARLY RESILIENT LEE TROF...HENCE TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOW LITTLE VARIATION...RANGING FROM UPPER
80S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WITHIN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. WHILE MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN
THE FLOW WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL GRAZE THE MID
ATLANTIC AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

UPPER PATTERN GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH EDGES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE DEEPER
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SURFACE TROFFING AND NUDGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES UPWARDS A BIT...MOSTLY LOW 90S NORTH TO MID 90S
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE SURFACE TROFFING MIGHT ADD SOME LOCAL
CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO STRONGER...READILY IDENTIFIABLE FEATURES THAT
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST BEYOND NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE KINT...KGSO AND KRDU TERMINALS. SOME SCT
CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST...SCT-
BKN CUMULUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL BECOME SCT THIS EVENING. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE KFAY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL VICINITY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD AT THE KRWI TERMINAL. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KFAY AND KRWI. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A PERIOD OF TWO OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND
EARLY WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPS.
-BLAES
&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES


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