Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 231149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

An area of high pressure aloft will expand from the central U.S.
across the mid-Atlantic states and Carolinas through early next
week. This will bring a period of hot temperatures to central NC.


.Near Term /through Tonight/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

An expansive area of high pressure aloft centered over the
central/southern plains will shunt the main band of westerlies near
or north of the Canadian border. This pattern will result in a weak
flow aloft over central NC. Thus, any convection that develops later
today will be focused on outflow boundaries from Friday`s
convection, or move into our region from the higher terrain to our
west-nw.  Expect the highest chance for isolated convection south of
highway 64 where better low level moisture expected to reside. if
later meso analysis depicts sufficient low level convergence, a bump
up in PoPs to chance may be warranted. Strong low level lapse rates
suggest strong gusty winds probable in vicinity of any convection.

Afternoon low level thicknesses projected to be 7-10m warmer than
Friday. This is supportive of max temps solidly in the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be in the upper 90s northwest to 100-104 degrees

Tonight, any isolated convection will quickly dissipate with loss of
heating. Overnight temps will lower into the mid 70s.


As of 310 AM Saturday...

Sprawling area of high pressure will build more so into the
Carolinas, bringing hot and dry conditions to our region. The
warming aloft will cap the atmosphere, limiting convective
development to just a stray thunderstorm or two.
Thicknesses Sunday afternoon approach 1450m in the Piedmont,
supportive of temps well into the 90s, and heat indices in the heat
advisory criteria. Comparable conditions expected Monday, though
bulk of short term models drag a westward moving s/w across northern
FL/coastal GA, the tail end of which may brush our southern
counties. This feature interacting with available moisture and
instability may trigger a concentrated area of convection.

Overnight conditions will remain muggy. Most places will likely see
temperatures remain above 80 until well after midnight. Any
convection that develops Monday afternoon should dissipate within an
hour or two after sunset.


As of 245 AM Saturday...

Additional s/w energy is expected to track across
Southern/Southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.
next week, which will allow a weak cold front to approach the region
(likely stalling to the north of the area though). This will allow
the mid level ridge to dampen across our region early next week and
relocated to the south and southeast of central NC. This should
place central NC on the southern fridge off potential disturbances
tracking atop/around the ridge, which should lead to a better chance
of mostly diurnal scattered showers and storms each
afternoon/evening. Given the predictability of such hard to time
features this far out in the forecast, will go with around 30-35
percent chance for showers and storms each day (generally climo).
This additional associated cloud cover is expected to lead to temps
a bit cooler, though highs are still expected to at least be in the
lower to mid 90s.


.Aviation /12Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 750 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions expected to prevail across central NC through Monday
as an area of high pressure aloft builds over the region. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible each late afternoon-early
evening through Monday, probability of convection affecting a
specific TAF site is too low to mention in the terminal forecast at
this time. Patchy MVFR fog will be possible early each morning,
primarily between the hours of 10Z-12Z.

While VFR conditions will likely dominate through Wednesday, there
will be periods of MVFR conditions associated with either early
morning fog, or late afternoon/early evening convection.





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