Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 141447 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move away from the Outer Banks this
morning as strong surface high pressure builds over the region.
High pressure will shift south Sunday allowing a cold front to
approach Sunday night. The front will cross the region Monday,
bringing in much cooler and drier air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Morning update to account for the fact that the wedge is hanging in
over the area with a solid cloud deck from about 1000 feet up to
about 2500 feet and this will erode much slower than the models
eluded to. Therefore this will keep overcast skies in place going
into the afternoon and keep the temperature curve lower as well.
Previous discussion follows.
-Ellis

The main issue this morning is the timing of the lifting of the low
stratus. Weak low pressure was analyzed near Hatteras at 200 am,
with a developing surface high over western VA (moderately strong at
1026 mb). This was a southwest extension of the CAD high that is now
moving off the New England coast (1030+ mb). The lifting out of the
low status is expected to be quickly after sunrise today as the very
strong mid level drying begins to mix down to the surface. This
occurs as the weak low pressure near Cape Hatteras moves away, and
the surface high over western VA strengthens. We expect mostly sunny
skies by late morning or early afternoon in nearly all areas. Highs
should respond nicely as most guidance supports 75-80 northwest and
northeast, ranging into the lower 80s over the Sandhills. A light
north wind at 5-10 mph is expected.

The high will be overhead tonight. There should be a period between
400 and 800 am of some low stratus/fog, otherwise mostly clear. Lows
in the 50s north and west and lower 60s elsewhere. -Badgett

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Saturday...

The surface high is expected to shift south of the area Sunday. A
return SW flow will bring increasing warmth. Highs should be on the
upper end of MOS guidance as the mid levels are slow to moisten
ahead of the next front by Sunday night. Highs generally in the mid
80s with some lower 80s NW and upper 80s over the Sandhills.

Skies will become mostly cloudy Sunday night. The chance of
showers will increase late over the far NW by evening, then the
chance of showers will increase elsewhere overnight. However,
only 30-50 POP will be forecast, with QPF of less than 0.25.

Lows will be warm (pre-frontal conditions), so we will go above the
warmest MOS. Lows well into the 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...

The theme of this week will be the cooler and drier weather. The
main cold front will track through the state Monday. This will be
the only chance of showers and these are expected to be light. The
front is now scheduled to move in well before peak heating Monday.
Extensive cloudiness with the front should overspread the region
early enough to keep instability down. A band of light showers with
QPF on the order of around 0.25 is expected Monday morning in the
west, and mid morning into the afternoon in the east. Temperatures
should begin in the 60s, with readings expected to only rise a few
degrees due to the expected showers and extensive clouds, then the
NE flow to follow the front. If clearing arrives in the NW early
enough Monday afternoon, then highs in the NW may reach the upper
60s (or a few degrees above the readings down east where the clouds
will be slower to clear).

Monday night through Friday, finally a definitive cool down after
the record warmth this past week. As strong surface high pressure
builds from the Plains  to over our region mid-week, lows will fall
back into the 40s (some upper 30s in the normally cool spots of the
Piedmont) Tue-Fri, with highs in the 60s Tuesday, and upper 60s to
mid 70s Wed-Fri. Dry weather and sunny/clear skies expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: LIFR to IFR CIGS expected through 14z, with
MVFR VSBYS, lifting to VFR by noon all areas. VFR conditions
expected this afternoon and tonight. The exception will be patchy
IFR CIGS and VSBYS between 08z and 13z/Sunday, then a return to VFR
conditions all areas after 13z/Sunday.

Outlook:

A front will bring a period of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and a chance of
showers Sunday night into Monday, otherwise high pressure will bring
VFR conditions back to the entire area late Monday through the bulk
of the upcoming week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Ellis/Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BSD/Badgett



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