Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 210746
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure area will develop along a weak surface front
over upstate South Carolina today. The low pressure and a cold front
will move offshore tonight. Colder and dry high pressure will build
south into the region Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Only residual light showers or sprinkles exist early this morning
along the NC/VA border associated with the earlier convection to our
NW. A few light showers may continue to bring some trace amounts of
rain to the NE zones through 400 am or so. Otherwise, mostly cloudy
skies should become partly sunny mid to late morning.

A cold front to our north is forecast to drop SE into our region
this afternoon and evening. It appears that a pre-frontal trough
will develop from update SC eastward along the NC/SC border. This is
where the heating today will combine with surface moisture
convergence to support convective development. Models again have
continued to suppress this convective potential southward (now
mostly across southern NC and SC) late this afternoon and early
evening.

We will continue to carry the highest POP south of the Triad and
Triangle areas, mainly across areas from Charlotte and Albemarle to
Fayetteville and Rockingham. The highest POP according to the latest
Hi-Res Convection allowing models should develop between 300 PM and
500 PM... spreading east and weakening or diminishing by early to
mid evening 800-900 PM in the SE.

Surface dew points in the mid to upper 50s will combine with highs
in the lower 80s across the southern tier of NC to produce MLCapes
around 1000 J/KG. WNW flow in the mid layers at 30-35kt suggest
organized thunderstorms in the corridor of the expected surface
trough. One or two of these storms may become marginally severe. We
will maintain the current wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook,
but focus on the southern tier of counties.

For the Triad to the Triangle area to Rocky Mount, expect a chance
of showers or an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. However, all
the convective parameters are keying in on areas from Asheville to
Charlotte to Fayetteville south into SC for any strong or isolated
severe thunderstorms.

Highs today warmest SW-S (lower 80s) and coolest N-NE (mid 70s).

Evening showers/storms in the SE will clear out this evening, with
mostly cloudy skies in the low level NE flow developing behind the
front. A low probability of lingering light rain will be forecast
near the front in the south and east overnight. Lows mid 40s
northern Piedmont ranging into the mid 50s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Tuesday...

Strong high pressure will begin to build into the region from the
north Wednesday. The drier and colder air will be slow to advance
southward into all our region until late afternoon and Wednesday
night. Skies will become mostly sunny in all but the SE zones where
cloudiness may linger much of the day. Highs mid 50s north to mid
60s SE. Clear and colder conditions are expected Wednesday night
with lows 28-32 or near freezing north and west, and 35-40 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

Thursday through Friday: Cold high pressure located over the Mid-
Atlantic will extend south/southwestward into central NC on
Thursday, before moving offshore Thursday night into Friday. This
should result in dry conditions for the end of the week, with a
warming trend commencing on Friday. However, the cold surface high
will allow for well below normal temps on Thursday and Thursday
night, with perhaps another freeze for portions of the area on
Thursday night (especially northeast). Expect high temps on Thursday
will be in the lower to mid 50s, with lows temps on Friday morning
generally in the lower to mid 30s, with a few locations in the usual
cold spots dropping into the upper 20s. High Friday are expected to
be around 60 NW to the mid to upper 60s SE.

Friday night through Monday: A mild pattern is expected for the
weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level low moves east-
northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging over the
region to start the period will shift eastward and offshore. This
will allow for increasing warmth and moisture to transport into
central NC for the weekend, lingering into early next week as the
main frontal zone will remain to the north/northeast of central NC.
Expect high temps will be in the 70s during this period, with even a
few locations toughing 80 late weekend/early next week, while low
temps are generally expected to be around 50/in the 50s. With
increasing southwesterly initially and the aforementioned
disturbance passing to the north of the region expect we may see
periods of showers and some storms from Saturday afternoon onward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Generally VFR conditions are forecast for all
terminals. Weak low pressure is forecast to track east along a
nearly stationary boundary that is expected to be over southern NC
and northern SC this afternoon and evening. This will bring a chance
of a period of MVFR CIGS and VSBYS with a shower or thunderstorm,
mainly between 21z and 00Z today at KFAY. This chance may linger
through 03Z or so at KFAY. A cold front will move south through
the region after the low pressure shifts offshore tonight. Generally
VFR conditions are forecast tonight and Wednesday as high pressure
builds in from the north.

Long Term: Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period with high
confidence Thursday into Friday. The probability increases for
MVFR CIGS by Saturday with a low chance of showers.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett


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