Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 230647

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
247 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and
tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday,
in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday


As of 245 AM Sunday...

In the wake of the upper low lifting northeast into eastern Canada,
rising heights aloft and associated strong subsidence warming will
allow for wall-to-wall sunshine. Surface High pressure centered over
the Lower MS Valley this morning will shift east and weaken across
the SE US this afternoon and tonight as a weak sfc trough develops
in the lee of the Appalachians. Resultant low-level swly flow will
help to bolster temps slightly, with uniform afternoon temps warming
into the upper 60s/near 70, very close to the 30-yr average for late
October.  Not as chilly tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.


As of 245 AM Sunday...

A series of shortwaves diving through the back-side of the upper low
over eastern Canada and attendant upper level trough extending
across the eastern US will push a dry cold front through the area
late Monday afternoon/evening. In fact, west-northwesterly downslope
flow preceding the moisture-starved front will make it hard-pressed
for even a few clouds to accompany the front. As such, we will see
another day of unlimited sunshine with temperatures warming into the
mid to to upper 70s(south)ahead of the front Monday afternoon.
Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high
pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows
in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south.


As of 225 PM Saturday...

An upper level trough will exit the east coast early this week and a
dry cold font will pass through Monday night leaving central NC on
the front side of an upper level ridge. This will keep temperatures
warm on Monday with highs in the mid 70s but that will quickly
change as surface high pressure builds out of Canada keeping
conditions cool and dry with highs topping out in the 60s on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Northwesterly flow could be breezy at times during
the first couple days of the work week but gusts should top out
around 15-20 mph but not much higher. The coolest night during this
period would be Tuesday night when temperatures drop into the low
40s but frost should not be a threat.

The ridge axis moves through by Thursday morning and a warming trend
will ensue for the end of the week with the main weather feature
being a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region
which is accompanied by a deepening upper trough and a surface cold
front that will approach the Carolinas late in the week. Model
solutions differ on the timing and impacts at this time so will
carry slight chance pops starting Thursday through Friday. Highs
during this period will climb back into the low 70s with lows in the
lower 50s.


As of 135 AM Saturday...

Rising heights aloft and associated strong subsidence in the wake of
the trough lifting northeast out of the region, while surface high
over the lower MS Valley builds east over the Southeast will support
a continuation dry VFR conditions through the period. Light and
variable winds overnight will become swly during the day on Sunday
as a weak surface trough develops in the lee of the mtns.

Looking Ahead:  Dry VFR conditions are expected to dominate through
Wednesday. The next chance for sub-VFR ceilings will arrive Thursday
afternoon as a cold front and attendant showers approach the
area from the west.




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