Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 210006
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
806 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS



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