Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
FXUS62 KRAH 160331
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1028 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017
High pressure over the southern Plains will move toward our region
tonight and Thursday, moving off the coast late Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1028 PM Wednesday...
Temperatures at 1000 PM were running generally from the mid 30s to
the mid 40s. There was still some mixing going on, but winds were
falling off to less than 10 mph most places. Dew points in the
teens to lower 20s indicate the dryness of the air. As high pressure
builds out way from Texas overnight, expect clear skies and light
winds. Lows are on target for generally 27-32 degrees.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...
Other than some stratocu drifting east off the mountains in
west-northwest flow, skies will be mostly clear on Thursday on
the back side of the upper trough. Cold advection will end
Thursday morning and thicknesses actually rise a little during
the afternoon. Deep mixing to around 850mb will support highs in
the upper 40s northeast to mid 50s southwest and result in wind
gusts to near 25kt, especially east where the pressure gradient
will be strongest.
A modified high pressure will build across the Deep South on
Thursday and settle over the Southeast Thursday night. While the
core of the low-level thermal trough will have moved east,
still expect some areas to dip below most guidance as winds go
calm under clear skies. One exception may be the northern half
of the area where and orographically enhanced stream of cirrus
is a possibility. Lows 27-31.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...
Dry weather is expected Friday through the daytime Saturday, as a
shortwave ridge moves across the Carolinas. Low level thicknesses
are progged to increase during this time as flow in this layer
becomes s-sw, thus a warming trend and temps some 5-10 deg above
normal (highs in the 60s Fri and Sat and lows around 40 Sat morn).
A southern stream short wave will then quickly move across the
region Saturday night and early Sunday, but noted that models are
showing this wave shearing out and weakening during that time. With
the upper energy and sfc pressure falls quickly shifting off the
coast Sunday morning, our area may end up with very light rainfall.
As far as rain timing, looks like light rain may move into our far
SW zones as early as Sat evening, then the best chance for rain
Saturday night, then rain chances quickly ending by mid-day Sun as
the wave moves to our east. Given the origins of this system, not
anticipating any major airmass changes, so above normal temps will
continue on Sun.
For early next week (Mon and Tue), dry, very warm conditions are
expected as a well-amplified ridge builds over the Southeast. Highs
well into the 70s are expected both days. Then temps may fall back
several degrees on Wednesday as a northern storm short wave dips
down across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 609 PM Wednesday...
24-Hour TAF period: High confidence that VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Strong, gusty winds have already abated at
most terminals. Winds should be west-northwesterly at 5-8 kts
overnight then increase to 8-12 kts with gusts of 18-25 kts by mid-
morning Thursday. Aside from a few fleeting mid to high clouds,
expect skies to be clear or mostly clear through the period. -KC
Looking ahead: VFR through Saturday. A disturbance crossing the
region on Saturday night may bring some sub-VFR conditions and light
rain, but confidence continues to be low and there is a chance there
will be very little impact. VFR is expected early next week. -Smith