Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
FXUS62 KRAH 151658
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016
High pressure will gradually build over North Carolina through the
middle of next week, resulting in warming temperatures and dry
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM Saturday...
A 1032 mb parent surface high over New England this morning will
gradually weaken as it builds south over the Southern Mid-Atlantic
States through Sunday night. Meanwhile upstairs, a shortwave trough
over the TN Valley will shear out as it drifts southeastward across
the Deep South. Once the morning stratus mixes out across the
western piedmont, wispy cirrus will yield mostly sunny skies today
with sfc high pressure wedged down the East Coast providing dry,
seasonable autumn temperatures. Afternoon highs ranging from upper
60s north to lower 70s south. Lows in the mid to upper 40s north
to lower 50s south.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 258 AM Saturday...
High pressure continues to prevail across central NC for the
remainder of the weekend as another dry day is expected. With no
real waves to speak of, weather should remain calm. Thicknesses
suggest a few degrees warmer for high temperatures, which will max
out in the mid 70s. Again a few scattered clouds around but not much
expected to impact insolation. Lows Sunday night also a few degrees
warmer, in the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...
Through midweek, the center of surface high pressure will shift from
over NC eastward to over Bermuda as it continues to extend across
NC, while aloft, strong ridging in the mid levels builds from
TX/Mexico ENE over the Southeast states. Thicknesses will steadily
climb over the forecast area to readings of 25-35 m above normal as
weak lee troughing develops. Expect generally clear skies Mon-Wed,
with perhaps a little light morning fog, and temps trending well
above normal, from the upper 70s Mon to the lower 80s Wed. The
narrow shortwave trough shifting slowly ESE through the Southeast
States this weekend will close off and settle over FL/W Cuba and the
eastern Gulf through Tue, followed by a westward drift undercutting
the mid level ridge on Wed. The fate of this baggy low beyond Wed
will depend on a low-amplitude shortwave trough which moves onto the
central West Coast Mon night before amplifying into a large scale
trough over the central CONUS by Thu. The GFS, which is slower than
the ECMWF with this feature, draws the FL low northward along the
Eastern Seaboard Thu/Fri within the preceding SSW steering flow,
bringing good chances for rain, especially in the east, over which
the GFS tracks what looks like a tropical low. The GFS then
culminates in a massive closed low over the mid central CONUS by Fri
night, inconsistent with its previous runs. The more progressive
ECMWF pulls an even weaker FL low farther east, over the Atlantic,
and retains a more open but deep and faster trough approaching the
southern Appalachians Fri/Fri night. The ECMWF is trending slightly
slower with each run but is still fairly consistent with itself, and
is preferred. This will mean continued warm temps Thu but with
increasing rain chances, and a cool off for Fri as the mid level
trough and corresponding surface cold front approach from the west.
Highs Thu in the upper 70s, slipping to around 70 / lower 70s Fri
along and just behind the front, with lows staying in the upper 50s
to around 60. -GIH
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday...
An area of high pressure will extend across the forecast area,
resulting in mostly VFR conditions. The exception will be pockets of
sub VFR ceilings and low clouds between 07Z and 13Z with the highest
threat in vicinity of KFAY and KRWI.
The area of high pressure will strengthen overhead Monday through
Wednesday, yielding warm and dry conditions and associated VFR
conditions. An approaching area of low pressure may bring a period
of unsettled weather to central NC toward the end of the work week.
As of 305 AM Saturday...
Major river flooding continues on the lower reaches of the Neuse and
Tar rivers. Minor flooding is expected on the Roanoke River at
Roanoke Rapids and Scotland Neck, due to upstream lake releases. For
details, see www.weather.gov/ahps2