Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KRAH 241803
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY... RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH ERN NC WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
EASTWARD OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. THE 850 MB ANTICYCLONE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT... CAUSING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT TO BECOME TRAPPED AND RESISTANT TO
DISPERSION WITH LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING... BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEST. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

MON/MON NIGHT: MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIGGING FROM NV TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGING ALOFT DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE GULF STATES AND MID SOUTH... ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS BEING
HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY A LARGE POLAR LOW OVER SE CANADA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WITH SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKING
UP... DRAWING WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THICKNESSES START
OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BUT RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY...
FAVORING MILD HIGHS AROUND 80... WITH FLAT MOSTLY SCATTERED
CUMULUS... LIKELY GREATER COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT NEAR A WEAK LEE
TROUGH. WARM MON NIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF THE RETURN SWLY FLOW AT THE SW AND THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL ADVECT A WARM AIR MASS...SENDING AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE
MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN
TUESDAY BUT STILL EXPECT A GOOD DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF.

A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
TUESDAY WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
OFFSHORE AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SW WINDS
ON TUESDAY.

SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MEAN FLOW WILL CAUSE THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST-SE...OUTFLOW FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AT
THIS TIME AS BULK SFC-6M SHEAR WEAK AT BEST AND THE ATMOSPHERE
PROJECTED TO BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE. A PERSISTENT SLY SFC FLOW AND
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WILL RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...

A WARMER PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MID AND LATE WEEK... THEN COOLER AND DRIER SATURDAY.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCHED
WEST TO EAST ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION BY 12Z/WED. THIS FRONT
IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WED. NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONT IS FAR REMOVED FROM OUR LATITUDE (CENTERED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA - WITH A BREAK OFF PORTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES)... AND TOO
WEAK TO REALLY "PUSH" THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY WED AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WHEN COMBINED WITH HEATING THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN THE
SPECIFICS... SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 80-85 SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY... AND IN THE 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOWS 60-65.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY... THEN EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES (VA/MD) THU
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. THE TIMING IS IN QUESTION (THU NIGHT OR FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON THE MODELS). HOWEVER... THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH (1025+ MB)... IT WILL  PROPEL THE
FRONT DEEP INTO SC/GA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE WEEK SHOULD CONSIST OF WARM AND HUMID THURSDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE 80S. HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE MAY LINGER (ESP IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
FRIDAY) DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. HIGHS 80-86 NW TO SE.
COOLER AND LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY... INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE TRACKS EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... WITH THE WARM FRONT
RETURNING TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

PATCHY STRATOCU NEAR FAY EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE SW...
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS...
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MON MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SCT-BKN
VFR (BASED AT 4000-5000 FT AGL) STRATOCU LATE TONIGHT (08Z-13Z) NEAR
FAY... BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MON... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
INTO TUE WITH DEEP HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT AND MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS AND
FOG INCREASES TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT... AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND SETTLES ACROSS NRN NC. THIS FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OUT ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA STATE LINE THROUGH FRI.
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WED AND THU AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
REGIONS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.