Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 201934
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will shift offshore late tonight and
into the day on Tuesday. A weak low pressure will develop off the
Florida coast on Tuesday, and then track quickly northeastward along
the Southeast coast Tuesday night. A cold front will move through
the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 234 PM Wednesday...

High pressure that`s currently parked over the Carolinas will begin
moving east tonight.  However, southerly return flow won`t begin
however until the daytime Tuesday, until the ridge axis completely
exits the area. As such, aside from some cirrus moving in from the
west, look for another night of fair weather with lows perhaps a few
degrees warmer than last nights lows, thanks mainly to the
increasing high clouds. Lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 234 PM Wednesday...

A southern stream short wave, currently located over the western
GOM, will move to the northeast and across the Carolinas during the
afternoon and evening Tuesday.  A resulting sfc low is still progged
to move northeast along the Gulf Stream late Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The latest GFS has trended farther east with the deepest
moisture and best rain chances.  The NAM is a bit farther west, but
it too has shifted slightly east with the better moisture. The
latest ECMWF is about the same as its prev run...generally showing
some light overrunning precip basically from US-1 eastward quickly
moving through Tuesday evening. So for now, will shift highest pops
a bit eastward, basically along and east of I-95 with lesser rain
chances back west toward the Triad. Either way, this light rain
event Tuesday evening will be short lived with limited rainfall
amounts, and other than the usual wet road hazards, should be fairly
low-impact. Given the late-day timing of the rain, we should see
some sunshine during the morning, however clouds will be on the
increase as we head through the afternoon. Highs from the mid-upr
50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.

Tuesday night, the next front will move into our CWA as the next
northern stream short wave moves by to our north. The fropa is
expected to be dry given the drying in the wake of the earlier
southern stream wave. CAA will be somewhat delayed with the next
high delayed, so given prefrontal flow and clouds, look for warmer
lows Tuesday night ranging from the lower 40s northeast to around 50
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday...

A surface cold front with limited moisture will be making its way
through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure and
its associated cold airmass to the north will expand into North
Carolina on Thursday.  A brief warmup will occur Friday into
Saturday ahead of the next cold front that will pass through
Saturday night.  Very amplified trough in the eastern US Sunday and
Monday will bring a much colder airmass into North Carolina with max
temps Monday only in the 40s.

Precipitation during this time frame will be limited to spotty light
rain with each frontal passage.  Waves of low pressure off the
southeast US coastline will keep more substantial rain to the east
and south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

VFR will continue through the 24 hour TAF period, with increasing
high clouds tonight. Low level moisture advection will occur
beginning mid-day Tuesday. Sfc winds through Tuesday will be
variable at less than 10 kts.

MVFR ceilings are possible Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday
as an area of low pressure skirts northeastward up the Southeast
U.S. coast. VFR parameters will return on Wednesday and should
remain VFR through the majority of the upcoming week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Franklin
AVIATION...np/CBL



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