Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 280543
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...

A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...CENTERED THIS EVENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DRIFTS EAST.
EAST-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW A RESULT OF THIS HIGH AND A LINGERING TROUGH
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL FILTER DRIER AIR INTO MOST OF
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR SE COUNTIES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FETCH ORIGINATES OVER THE
ATLANTIC...DRAWING SOME MOISTURE INLAND...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
STRATUS. ENOUGH SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 925-850 MB MAY STILL
GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN VICINITY OF THE SE COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT BUT MOST PLACES WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE MON TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 3-5
DEGREES COOLER. MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH UPPER
60S OVER THE FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL START TO BUILD
TOWARD THE EAST COAST... AND THE REMAINING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST WILL CUT OFF INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE DAY... AND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS PWS REMAIN AROUND 1" ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAINWSS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN GULF STATES WILL EJECT NORTH AS IT IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE RETROGRESSING ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WAVE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NC
ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CONVECTIVE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA DURING MAX HEATING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUDINESS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY TEMPERED BY THE CLOUDINESS...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO KICK OFF THE WORK
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO
FORCING OF NOTE...AND WE ALSO REMAIN BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO FURTHER HINDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO
INDUCE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MID WEEK PERIOD...NO SURPRISE HERE...WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. ONGOING TRACK FORECAST BRINGS
IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAVE US IN THE
WARM AND SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY QUADRANT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE DAY 7
FORECAST AS THE TC OR REMNANTS THEREOF WILL BE CUT OFF FROM STEERING
FLOW AND MIGHT MEANDER SLIGHTLY INLAND...EDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE...OR
WANDER OFF TO POINTS UNFORESEEN AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN TIER PENDING LATER GUIDANCE. HIGHS WED AND THU WILL BE
PERSISTENCE IN THE UNCHANGED AIRMASS...PERHAPS TEMPERED A BIT BY THE
CLOUD SHIELD...LOOKING AT MOSTLY MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS. THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED ESE OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA/NY BUILDS SOUTHWARD... NOSING INTO
CENTRAL NC AND BRINGING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL INHIBIT
FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTING FLOW ALOFT FROM THE S AND SW WILL
ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH THIN CLOUDINESS TODAY/TONIGHT... WITH VFR
CIGS AOA 20 KFT... ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL START TO LOWER TO AROUND 12-15
KFT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD TONIGHT... AS A WEAK LOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH MS/AL
INTO TN... BRINGING WEAK DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD INTO NC.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
LOWER BELOW 10 KFT BUT REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE... INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A
RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TUE... BUT OVERALL
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



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