Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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762 FXUS62 KRAH 240840 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 340 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the Carolinas until a cold front crosses the region Sat night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 PM Thursday... The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered across southeastern VA extending into central and eastern NC. Water vapor imagery shows a shield of high clouds extending from FL northeast across the western Atlantic and into far eastern GA, SC and NC. The western edge of the cloud shield has begun shifting east at a steadier pace with the back edge now located near or just east of I- 95. The air mass across central NC is cool and dry with dew points in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The chilly air mass combined with clearing skies and generally calm winds under the surface ridge have allowed temperatures to quickly drop during the past couple of hours. Temperatures as of 10pm had reached 28 at both Roxboro and Henderson with 29 noted at both Southern Pines and Siler City. As the cirrus canopy shifts east, expect good radiational conditions to spread across all of central NC overnight. Have adjusted hourly temperatures downward to account for a faster rate of colling and have lowered minimums a couple of degrees, closer to the NAM/MET guidance. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 218 PM Thursday... High pressure and a dry airmass with westerly flow aloft and a seasonable airmass is the weather story for Friday. Look for plenty of sunshine during the day Friday with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. Friday night, the next short wave embedded in the longwave trough over the East will be crossing the Ohio Valley. While it`s assoc cold frontal passage won`t occur until late Saturday, we will see an increase in high clouds Friday night in advance of it. Thus with these high clouds, low temps Friday night should be a little warmer than tonight`s lows. Low temps Friday night in the mid 30s, under increasing high clouds. A mild day is in store for Saturday with a westerly flow ahead of an advancing, rather dry, cold front.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 340 PM EDT Friday... ...Dry and mild temperatures expected next week... In the wake of the cold front passage Saturday night, mild surface high pressure centered over the Lower MS Valley will build west into the area through Monday, before shifting offshore on Tuesday. Meanwhile aloft, the eastern US trough will lift out as the strong ridge over the Western US de-amplifies as it shifts eastward across the Southern and SE CONUS. As a result, the slightly below normal temperatures(55-60 F)Sunday and Monday will be rather short-lived, with temperatures moderating to above normal levels by Tuesday, likely peaking on Wednesday with afternoon temperatures warming well into the 60s and possibly even near 70 across the southern coastal plain and Sandhills. The latest 00z/24 solutions of the GFS and EC have come into much better model agreement with the upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies Wednesday and Thursday, with the general consensus tracking the sheared system well north/northwest of the area. This will favor a continuation of dry and mild conditions through Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Friday... Aside from patchy radiation fog that will be most likely to affect climatologically-favored RWI this morning, surface high pressure will maintain VFR, generally clear conditions across cntl NC. Outlook: The passage of a moisture-starved cold front will result in a small chance of a VFR shower or sprinkle Sat eve, followed by a similarly small chance of sct to bkn MVFR stratocumulus at FAY and RWI, in sly return flow around offshore high pressure, Tue aft. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...Blaes/np LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...MWS

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