Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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267 FXUS62 KRAH 230746 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure will again build over our region today and Friday bringing near record warmth for late February. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM THURSDAY... Our region was essentially left out of the light rains of Wednesday that occurred over the western and northern part of NC. The Triad cities of Winston-Salem and Greensboro were brushed with a few hundredths of an inch of rain. However, it was just to the NW over the Foothills where there was enough rain for a stronger In-Situ Damming situation creating dense fog late yesterday and this morning. It is still unclear if widespread dense fog will develop into our Triad communities this morning. The clearing aloft over top the moist and mild ground points toward dense fog. However, again it only rained a few hundredths over our NW counties, suggesting the ground may not be moist enough (as it is over Surry/Yadkin/Iredell Counties) for the development of widespread dense (less than 1/4 mile) visibilities. Given the current observations, we will hold off on an Advisory, but may issue a Special Statement if needed before the main morning rush. Otherwise, stratus and fog along with the high clouds will clear out today. This will allow for a mostly sunny afternoon. Near record warmth today (see climate section below) in the NW, where highs are projected to reach the lower 70s. Readings elsewhere should be well into the 70s. The increase in dew points and the lack of wind should help keep temperatures from warming into the 80 degree range, under the strengthening upper high. Tonight - lack of a moist ground should lead to less than model forecast of fog and stratus. However, warm overnight lows and dew points well above average in the upper 40s and 50s certainly argue for some status and fog. Mixed signals - so we will trend the forecast toward less status given the dry ground. Lows 48-55.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND Friday NIGHT/... As of 230 AM THURSDAY... Near record daily warmth appears to be the theme. Expect the strong ridging and sinking air to combine with warm thicknesses to send temperatures soaring. The lack of a dry west breeze and low dew points should help temper the warmth somewhat. However, the dew points in the 50s will make it feel most like very early May! Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW. Light surface winds from the SE-S expected to be less than 10 mph. Another warm night with dew points in the 50s expected Friday night. Partly cloudy skies expected with lows near record high mins. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 PM Wednesday... Sat/Sat Night: An upper level low moving ashore the Pacific coast this evening will track eastward through the Intermountain West/Rockies on Thu and emerge in the central Plains on Friday. The upper low will amplify as it tracks into the OH valley Friday night and may become negatively tilted as it progresses through the Mid- Atlantic on Sat. An attendant sfc cyclone will track NE from the Great Lakes into Canada, with a secondary cyclone developing offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast (Sat) racing northward to the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Sunday. A cold front associated with the Great Lakes /inland/ low will approach the mountains from the west Sat morning and track across central NC during the day Sat. Though upper forcing will be present, the strongest DPVA is expected to remain north of central NC (over the DELMARVA) and will likely lag behind the pre-frontal trough. Additionally, with the primary sfc low lifting NE from the Great Lakes into Canada and a secondary low developing offshore, expect little in the way of return flow, with sfc dewpoints similar to Friday and a persistent (albeit weakening) mid-level cap as a modified elevated mixed layer advects eastward across the region. At this time it is difficult to tell whether or not sufficient upper level forcing will be present, let alone favorably juxtaposed with low-level forcing and diurnal heating. As a result, it is difficult to ascertain whether or not convection will develop over central NC Sat afternoon. At this time, the best chance for precipitation appears to be in the NW Piedmont 12-18Z Sat when remnants of an OH/TN valley squall line (if any) would be expected to track into northwest NC. Otherwise, the atmosphere appears too dry/capped for convection to develop (though if did, supercellular organization would be likely). Expect highs in the 70s, lows Sat night in the upper 30s (NW) to lower 40s (SE). Sun-Wed: Expect relatively dry conditions in this period with temperatures gradually rising through the 60s into the 70s early next week, in advance of the next cold front expected to approach from the west mid-week. -Vincent && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1255 AM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A lingering CAD air mass over the Northwest Piedmont will lead to MVFR/IFR cigs and visbys falling into the LIFR range with very low stratus and/or fog early this morning, continuing through mid to late morning at KGSO/KINT. Elsewhere, expect mainly VFR conditions will continue with good amount of mid and high clouds expected, as a weak mid level trough slowly moves across the area. The main shield of mid and high clouds will shift eastward across the area this morning as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts eastward. Winds are expected to remain calm to light and variable this morning, with a light S to SE wind expected today into the evening. Outlook: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect predominately VFR conditions through early next week. The exception will be a very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will become breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the west, with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30 kts. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 23rd February 24th February 25th GSO 73/1980 79/1982 81/1930 RDU 79/1980 81/1982 82/1930 FAY 80/1922 83/1930 85/1930 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...BSD CLIMATE...RAH

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