Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 310546 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY... LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY... RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY... WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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