Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280807 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 406 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across our region today, then drift offshore and result in a warming southerly return flow across the Carolinas through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Today and tonight/...
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As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday... After a pleasant morning with mins in the mid to upper 50s, skies will be sunny today as high pressure migrates across the area and offshore tonight. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon with light winds. Good radiational conditions tonight will allow mins to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...
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As of 405 AM EDT Wednesday... Moisture and temperatures will begin to creep up on Thursday with strengthening southerly return flow as the high moves further offshore. Clouds will hold off til Thursday night, so another sunny day is on tap with highs returning to a more seasonal 85-90 range. An upper disturbance will lift east northeast across the Gulf states Thursday night. We will remain dry and on the northern fringe of increasing cloudiness as deeper moisture pools south of the area. Mins will be in the mid 60s.
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&& && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 AM Wednesday... Return flow around expansive high pressure over the central N. Atlantic will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels, marked most abruptly by the passage of a warm front on Fri, followed by a peak in the humidity this weekend and the heat Mon and Tue. Despite mid level warmth associated with a sub-tropical ridge initially over the swrn N. Atlantic, with resultant weak mid level lapse rates, the aforementioned warming and moistening low levels should prove sufficient for at least scattered diurnal convection throughout central NC during the upcoming holiday weekend, after which time, a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough and mixing out of surface dewpoints (into the lower to middle 60s) to the west will probably shift the focus for convection into the Coastal Plain. Temperatures will trend from the middle 80s to around 90 degrees on fri to lower to middle 90s by early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will continue through the 24 hour TAF period as surface high pressure builds into and across the region. This will result in light and variable winds and mostly clear skies. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday evening. A moistening southerly return flow will allow for the chance of early-mid morning sub-VFR conditions from Friday morning on, with an increase in mostly diurnal showers and storms from Friday afternoon onward. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...mlm/BSD

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