Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 051547 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY... LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR TAKING ITS TIME ADVECTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING TO LEVELS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT BETWEEN ASHEVILLE AND HICKORY. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE FRONT RESUME A MORE CONSTANT SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY P-TYPE COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS 850MB FEATURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AT 18Z...AND ALONG A ASHEBORO-DURHAM-HALIFAX LINE AT 00Z. THUS...THE CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE TRIAD REGION...AND BASICALLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE TRIANGLE AND AREAS EAST OF THE TRIANGLE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64/264 BY EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST WITH BULK OF PRECIP EAST- NE OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 SOUTH. THIS COLD AIR WILL CAUSE ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS TO FREEZE INTO A THIN LAYER OF ICE WITH THE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/RAMPS THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE SLICK CONDITIONS. THUS...THOUGH THE ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY (OR EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACK ICE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 11 AM OR NOON...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE A DIFFICULT/HAZARDOUS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY... FOR FRIDAY...BLUSTERY AND COLD...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY... SAT-SUN NIGHT: EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPS... (THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL) OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW/WESTERN GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S SAT/SUN AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S SAT NIGHT TO MID/UPPER 30S SUN NIGHT WHEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT WAA/FGEN...AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. MON-TUE: GIVEN A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES MON/MON NIGH...WILL INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE TEMPS IN THAT TIME FRAME. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL BECOME MVFR-IFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z AT NORTHERN TAF SITES...TO BETWEEN 15-19Z AT KFAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 14Z-17Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TRAILING THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THU...BEFORE RAIN CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE ENDING. OUTLOOK: AFTER LINGERING LIGHT SLEET AND MVFR CONDITIONS KRDU/KFAY/KRWI THU EVENING...PERSISTING LONGEST INTO THU NIGHT AT KFAY...VFR CONDITION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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