-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 051547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY...

LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR TAKING ITS TIME ADVECTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING TO LEVELS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT BETWEEN
ASHEVILLE AND HICKORY. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE FRONT RESUME A MORE
CONSTANT SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
THE SFC CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY P-TYPE COINCIDES FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE 850MB 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...THIS 850MB FEATURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AT
18Z...AND ALONG A ASHEBORO-DURHAM-HALIFAX LINE AT 00Z. THUS...THE
CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE TRIAD REGION...AND BASICALLY NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE TRIANGLE AND AREAS EAST OF
THE TRIANGLE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 64/264 BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST WITH BULK OF PRECIP EAST-
NE OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND
30 SOUTH. THIS COLD AIR WILL CAUSE ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS TO
FREEZE INTO A THIN LAYER OF ICE WITH THE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/RAMPS
THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE SLICK CONDITIONS. THUS...THOUGH THE
ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER
ADVISORY (OR EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACK
ICE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 11 AM OR
NOON...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE A DIFFICULT/HAZARDOUS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...

FOR FRIDAY...BLUSTERY AND COLD...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

SAT-SUN NIGHT: EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPS...
(THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL) OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED WELL NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONFINED TO THE
DESERT SW/WESTERN GOMEX. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S SAT/SUN AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S SAT NIGHT TO MID/UPPER 30S SUN NIGHT
WHEN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...ATTENDANT WAA/FGEN...AND
RESULTING PRECIPITATION PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.

MON-TUE: GIVEN A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES MON/MON NIGH...WILL INCREASE POPS AND DECREASE
TEMPS IN THAT TIME FRAME. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL BECOME MVFR-IFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z AT NORTHERN
TAF SITES...TO BETWEEN 15-19Z AT KFAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 14Z-17Z.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TRAILING THE
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THU...BEFORE RAIN
CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE ENDING.

OUTLOOK: AFTER LINGERING LIGHT SLEET AND MVFR CONDITIONS
KRDU/KFAY/KRWI THU EVENING...PERSISTING LONGEST INTO THU NIGHT AT
KFAY...VFR CONDITION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT