-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 081954
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY PLEASANT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WITH SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT A DRY COLD FRONT...STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW
FROM THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM...WILL DROP SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND WILL BASICALLY BE A COLD
FRONT IN NAME ONLY AS THE AIRMASS DOES NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH.
CANADIAN AIR REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
THEREFORE...NOT A BIG INFLUENCE ON LOW TEMPERATURES AS LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 6Z IN THE TRIAD AND
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK IN THE EAST. A SLIGHT DROP IN VISIBILITIES MAY
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE TRIAD SITES MOST
VULNERABLE TO THIS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SCATTERED TO BROKEN 3-5 KFT CLOUDS WILL
LINGER AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
COLUMN DRYING OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ALOFT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE ONLY MOIST LAYER NEAR 850 MB.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTING
POSSIBLE UP TO 15-20 KTS. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED. THICKNESSES
TOMORROW MAX OUT NEAR 1340 IN THE NORTHEAST AND NEAR 1350 IN THE
SOUTHWEST...PUTTING US PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW TO UPPER 60S NE TO SW. A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO
PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXITING OFF THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY SUNDAY WILL DRIVE A WEAK
AND MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
DEEP ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVENTS COLD AIR FROM EVER REACHING THE
CAROLINAS...WITH CENTER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIDED BY LIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PROPEL TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S ON SUNDAY TO WELL INTO THE 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS ON
PAR GIVEN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS AND
QUESTIONABLE INTERACTION OF AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WITH THE RIO GRANDE CLOSED
UPPER LOW.

THE ECMWF STILL LIES ON THE SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED SIDE OF THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE GFS LIES ON THE QUICKER AND LESS DEVELOPED
SIDE. WHETHER OR NOT THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL PHASE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...BUT REGARDLESS
OF EVENTUAL EVOLUTION...CENTRAL NC WILL SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

DRY BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE IN THE TRIAD
WHERE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SREF PROBABILITIES ALSO POINT TO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME SUB-
VFR VISIBILITIES BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE 5-10 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEFORE 12 IN THE WEST AND CLOSER TO 15Z IN THE EAST.
SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS. THIS IS
MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE EAST THAN IN THE TRIAD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED LEADING UP TO AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SCATTERED 3-5 KFT CLOUDS COMING IN NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS