Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 301444 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1045 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY... A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC...EXITING OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES PRIOR TO 3 PM. OBSERVED RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHALLENGE NOW CENTERS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS. LOW LEVEL WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL AID TO SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDINESS. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND IN THE NE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS TREND SUGGEST A UNIFORM TEMP FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. IF CLEARING IS DELAYED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY REMAIN IN THE 50S. -WSS FAIR WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF SOME OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS. AS FOR TEMPS...CAA WILL BE FAIRLY SUBTLE AS DEMONSTRATED BY LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING ONLY ABOUT 10-15M FROM PRE-FRONTAL VALUES. STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH...WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRIAD TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. -RAH
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... THE ACTIVE NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS TIME. ITS ATTENDANT SFC FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND MID-DAY...WILL PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTHWARD... CROSSING CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING TUESDAY. SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RECOVERY BEHIND TODAY`S FRONT...THE FROPA TUESDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. OTHERWISE...850MB FLOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM NW TO SW AND INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...SO LOOK FOR TEMPS TO TREND WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LOOK FOR CLEARING SKIES. DESPITE POST-FRONT CAA AS NOTED BY DOWNWARD TREND IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...IT WILL BE BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 355 AM MONDAY... DEEP LAYER RIDGING...INCLUDING A RELATIVELY COOL CANADIAN SFC HIGH...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WED AND WED NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER THAN AVG CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS...AND MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOWS...BASED ON GOOD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PROJECTED LL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1340 METERS AT 12Z THU. RETURN FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LL WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT BOTH MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR MORE MEAGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IN PART DUE TO A MORE SHEARED SOLUTION FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THU... SO ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES WOULD APPEAR TO BE SLIGHT AT BEST. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH FROPA ON SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF...WITH SUPPORT OF THE EC ENSEMBLES...INDICATES FROPA FRI NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW WPC PREFERENCE TOWARD THE EC CAMP AND INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRI NIGHT...WITH UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING FOR ANY THUNDER. WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES OR BETTER FRI...BUT TURNING COOLER AND TRENDING CLOSER TO AVG FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME UPPER 30S PROBABLE SUN MORNING. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 640 AM MONDAY... PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ATTM. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...MID CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE LOW LOWER AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH. FLT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AS THE LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT INT/GSO BY 12Z...RDU BY 1330Z...AND RWI/FAY BY 1430Z. THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURNING TO INT/GSO BY 18Z...AND RDU/RWI/FAY BY 21-22Z. CURRENT KRAX VWP IS STILL INDICATING SW WINDS OF 50-55KT AT 1 TO 2 K FT...WHILE SFC WINDS ARE AROUND 10-12KT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. WHILE THE LLWS MAY DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH 20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 30/23Z. FOR TONIGHT (AFT 30/23Z)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. BEYOND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DETERIORATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY ASSOC WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1045 AM MONDAY... BREEZY SW SFC WINDS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH A DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25- 30 PERCENT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FREQUENTLY GUSTS BETWEEN 23-28 MPH. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW RH WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT FINE FUELS. WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE JUST SHORT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ANY UNATTENDED FIRES MAY QUICKLY BECOME UNCONTROLLABLE IF THE FIRE OCCURS IN A RECEPTIVE FUEL. AFTER COORDINATING WITH NC FORESTRY OFFICIALS...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR INCREASE FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY ISSUE THIS STATEMENT LATER TODAY...AFTER VIEWING INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...WSS/RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...RAH FIRE WEATHER...WSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.