Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 270737 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 338 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the west today, crossing central NC late tonight. High pressure will build into the region Friday, and persist over the area through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /through Tonight/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 338 AM Thursday... A s/w crossing the Great Lakes this morning will lift east-ne into New England tonight. The cold front associated with this wave will approach from the northwest today, crossing central NC overnight.Southerly flow ahead of the front will advect a marginally moist air mass into our region though moisture basically confined to the lowest 10k ft. In addition, best lift associated with the s/w lifts well north of our region. While expect to see an increase in cloudiness, shower coverage will be limited to the far west-nw late in the day, after 20Z. A few showers will progress east through the Piedmont/northern coastal plain during the evening/late night hours. Forcing weak at best leading to rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch with most places likely only receiving a trace or an hundredth. Warm southerly flow will aid to push temperatures into the 70-75 degree range this afternoon in spite of the thickening cloud cover. The sfc winds will be breezy with gusts 15-20 mph probable. Tonight, sfc cold front will advance east across central NC between 06Z-12Z. Northwest flow behind the front will advect a drier air mass into the region. This arrival of the drier coupled with the downslope component of the low level wind will aid to decrease cloudiness nw-se toward daybreak. Expect the clearing to initiate in the Triad around 06Z, reaching our eastern periphery shortly after daybreak. Min temps on the mild side due to the low level mixing and extensive cloudiness. Min temps lower 50s nw to the mid- upper 50s se.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /Friday and Friday night/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 338 AM Thursday... High pressure will build into central NC Friday and Friday night in the wake of the exiting cold front. Low level cold air advection brief as core of the cold air will slide to our north, just brushing our far north-northeast counties. Where clouds are still prevalent early Friday will depart by mid day with sunny skies expected areawide Friday afternoon. Clear skies and near calm winds Friday night will lead to excellent nocturnal cooling conditions. High temperatures near 70 far north to the mid-upper 70s south. Min temps Friday night upper 40s northeast to near 50-lower 50s south.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 304 AM Thursday... Dry and warm conditions on Saturday as high pressure sinks south across the region. Shortwave will cross the Mid Atlantic on Sunday bringing a weak dry cold front through NC late Sunday/early Monday. Expect a dry passage with upper level westerly winds and limited moisture return. Ahead of the front, southwesterly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will support temperatures near 80 degrees. Surface high pressure will move in to the region Monday through Wednesday, as upper level ridging will builds over the Southeast. This will support continuing dry conditions and above average temperatures through midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday through Monday/... As of 125 AM Thursday... Increasing southerly low level flow will advect a moderately moist air mass into central NC today. This will aid in the development of patchy fog and areas of low clouds around daybreak. The occurrence near any one of the TAF sites is still highly uncertain. The probability does appear to be greater in vicinity of KRWI and KFAY, and possibly less so near the Triad. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist through this evening. An approaching surface cold front will result in breezy southerly winds with gusts near 20kts probable. This surface front will cross central NC late tonight, primarily between 06Z-12Z Friday. Enough moisture and lift will exist to support a few showers though VFR conditions are expected to persist. High pressure will build into our region in the wake of the departing front Friday. This weather system will maintain control of our weather through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.