Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221736 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 135 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push slowly southward through the area today. Cold high pressure will build into the region from the north this afternoon through Thursday. Warmer conditions will arrive this weekend as the high shifts well off in the Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1015 AM Wednesday... Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to the sky condition due to an atmosphere conducive to orographic cloud production. High pressure will build into central NC this afternoon and tonight in the wake of the exiting cold front. 12Z upper air analysis depicts strong low level cold air advection at 850mb, along with a push of a drier air mass. In addition, strong nw flow between 700- 500mb along with residual moisture has resulted in orographic induced cirrus across the region. Expect this veil of high clouds to gradually dissipate as the column becomes drier aloft this afternoon. While skies will become increasingly sunny, the low level cold air advection will deter warming. Thus, temperatures will slowly warm an additional 5-7 degrees from 14Z readings. 12Z GSO soundings depicts fairly stout winds just a few thousand feet above the surface. This will lead to gusts between 25 and 30 mph, primarily through early afternoon. ~WSS Tonight, winds will gradually die off to light from the NE. Forecast soundings do indicate the potential for patchy high cloudiness overnight. However, this should not hinder the strong cooling tonight. Lows are expected to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s throughout our region. Even though the winds are expected to die off to 5 mph or less overnight, dew points will be very dry (teens and lower 20s). This should prevent significant frost. Yet, the actual lows should dip to freezing for several hours regardless. ~Badgett && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM WEDNESDAY... The strong, cold, dry surface high will build southward from PA/NY into GA/FL Thursday and Thursday night. Other than a few clouds due to the upslope easterly flow into the Mountains, skies will be mainly clear. Highs Thursday are favored to be only 50-55 for the Northern Piedmont, ranging into the upper 50s near the SC border. Lows Thursday night will again flirt with freezing in the south and likely fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s again across the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM Wednesday... A warming trend is expected late week into the weekend as surface high pressure will be located off the southeast U.S. coast, with mid level ridging moving across the area from west to east. This will result in generally dry conditions from Friday into Saturday night, before the mid level ridge shifts to the east while a mid/upper level low moves east-northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and eventually across the northeast U.S. while weakening late weekend into early next week. This will result in increasing chances for some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few storms Sunday into Monday. However, with the main track of the system now expected to track well to the north of the area will keep pops in the chance category (with some locations across the south and east possibly remaining dry through the period). Temps will be mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 Friday, to 70s to near/lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. The next southern stream s/w disturbance is expected to track east/northeastward across the country, possibly phasing with a northern stream trough on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. This will result in at least a small chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but many question remain on timing and strength of the system remain. Regardless it appears the mild weather will continue through the forecast period, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Monday/... As of 135 PM Wednesday... High probability that VFR conditions will occur across central NC through 00Z Saturday. An area of high pressure will build into our area tonight, then settle overhead Thursday. This weather system will drift offshore Friday. Brisk northwest winds this afternoon will gradually subside to less than 10kts by sunset. The threat for MVFR visibility due to fog will increase early Saturday morning, and more so Sunday morning, as low level sw flow advects a warm, moist air mass into central NC. The approach of a low pressure system will increase the probability of MVFR ceilings as well as a few showers Sunday through Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS/Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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