Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 040811 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 410 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY... AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER BENIGN AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EARLIER TODAY KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN...THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXITING NORTHEASTERN NC. OTHERWISE...ANY REMAINING CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY... POSITIVELY TILTED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR WEST-NW WITH MINOR PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NEWD IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL PASS TO OUR WEST-NW. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE... GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...BETWEEN 22Z- 03Z. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND STRENGTH OF 30-40KTS WILL CREATE DECENT SHEAR WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THIS SUGGEST BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION RATHER THAN SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE. STILL COULD SEE A STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL (SIZE OF A QUARTER OR LESS) WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. PARTIAL-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE PROMINENT...HOLDING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO DISSIPATE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS PROBABLE WELL INTO THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 68-73. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY MORNING...WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS NORTH INTO VA. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS AND PW AROUND 1.8" SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST EARLY MONDAY...POTENTIALLY EXPANDING WITH TIME TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FORCING AND A SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. RELATIVELY WEAK MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT A CONCERN OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY STILL EXIST IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND SHEAR OUT ON TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN US WILL MAY KEEP HEIGHTS FROM RISING TO STRONGLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. WHILE THE FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE NC...WE SHOULD SEE A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS...WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM WEST-EAST MOVING DISTURBANCES TO OUR NORTH BY LATE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND ENSUING TUESDAY ONWARD...THOUGH HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR TWO ON THE WARMER SIDE SIDE OF NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY... THE THREAT OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER THIS MORNING...WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT FROM THE FRONT (IE. TOWARD KFAY). MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES TODAY WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROBABLY ACCOMPANYING EACH...THE FIRST OF WHICH MAY AFFECT FAY/RDU/RWI BETWEEN 16-21Z BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PAST MOVEMENT. STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EACH PASSING CLUSTER OF STORM SUGGESTS MUCH LOWER PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT DISTURBANCE AND STORM CLUSTER FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY CONDITIONS BY 14- 15Z...AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S KTS - HIGHEST AT FAY AND RWI. OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT...NEAR AND MORE LIKELY JUST NORTH OF NORTHERN CENTRAL NC TAF SITES SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUN-MON...BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...26

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