Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170241 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 940 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Behind a cold front that will cross NC early tonight, high pressure will build into NC from the northwest through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 940 PM Thursday... A dry cold front, currently near the NC-VA state line, will progress south through the area over the next 3 to 4 hours. Winds will become northerly in the wake of the front, which will advect colder and drier air into central NC, resulting in overall cooler temperatures than what we saw last night. Lows tonight generally in the mid 30s expected, with some lower 30s in out-lying/rural areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 223 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build overhead Friday into Friday evening, lingering over the Coastal Plain Friday night. Very dry air will continue with the mid/upper ridge overhead through late Friday. Then, expect increasing high thin clouds Friday night but likely remaining scattered and thin enough not to impede good radiational cooling again. Highs generally 55-62, with lows in the 30s. Warmest SW and coolest N-NE zones. Most of the WAA at the surface will hold off until after sunrise Saturday leaving nearly calm near surface winds increasing to the SW at 10 mph late in the NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday... No changes made to longer range forecast. Models continue to highlight a trough and surface low moving across the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday with its associated surface front racing east across North Carolina Saturday night. Surface winds will be gusty as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph by Saturday afternoon. The front will spill over the mountains Saturday afternoon, with likely PoPs in the western Piedmont early Saturday night. These likely PoPs will translate quickly across central NC, reaching the Coastal Plain after midnight before ending towards sunrise Sunday. Cool and dry high pressure will settle into the area Sunday, with rather low amplitude upper troffing lingering Sunday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM Thursday... VFR. Initially calm to light wly to wnwly surface winds this evening will veer to nwly and perhaps briefly gust into the mid teens kts with the passage of a cold front early tonight. Aside from cirrus, which may become orographically-enhanced and briefly thicken over the Piedmont, skies will be generally be clear. Outlook: It will become breezy in swly flow ahead of a cold front on Sat; and that flow may direct an area of MVFR ceilings briefly into the INT and GSO vicinity Sat morning, followed by the passage of a band of showers and threat of sub-VFR conditions with the passage of that cold front Sat night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS/Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...MWS

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