Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 221001
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
301 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will bring much above average temperatures through the
weekend, with a few degrees of cooling possible next week. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible today through Saturday near the Sierra,
then spreading into parts of western Nevada Sunday, with dry and
breezy conditions early next week. Flooding will continue for the
creeks in Mono County and for portions of the Walker River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today and Friday look to be less active convective days compared
to earlier this week, as drier northwest flow aloft pushes the
ridge axis farther south into the Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys.
For this afternoon/early evening, north to northeast surface flow
today should limit convective potential to western Mono County,
with steering flow favoring cell motion and subsequent development
to the west side of the crest. By Friday, a few cells could
linger into central Mono County as low level flow off the central
Sierra becomes west- northwest by late afternoon. For both days,
cell coverage is expected to be sparse with only a few locations
receiving brief moderate rainfall and gusty winds.

The other effect of the north to northeast flow will be a modest
drop in temperatures today, with highs mainly in the mid 90s for
lower elevations--still about 10 degrees above average but a
short break from the recent triple digit heat. By Friday,
temperatures begin to edge upward again, with a few warmer valleys
possibly touching 100 degrees.

By Saturday, the upper level ridge axis returns northward again,
leading to a return of triple digit heat to more western NV
valleys. The record high at Reno for June 24 (Saturday) is 103 and
is unlikely to be challenged, but could come within a degree or
two of that value. Low level flow looks similar to Friday, with a
modest west-northwest flow pushing off the Sierra but northeast to
east winds across the rest of the region. The only difference is
with the added heating, some cells could form farther north along
the Sierra into Alpine County and even to near South Tahoe. MJD

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...

Strong ridge remains over Nevada on Sunday, with the ridge axis
beginning to shift further east and allowing low pressure to move
into the CA coast. High temperatures will still be very hot on
Sunday, with highs near 100 degrees in the desert valleys and mid
80s/low 90s in the Sierra. A weak shortwave moving into northern
CA/NV late Sunday could potentially help to get some stronger
thunderstorms along the Eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin and along the
Sierra front.

After Sunday, westerly flow aloft will increase as low pressure
moves through the Pacific Northwest and northern CA. This will
bring drier air to the region, ending thunderstorm chances and
trending "cooler" temperatures into the middle of next week. By
"cooler", temperatures will be closer to average, but still about
5 degrees above average for this time of year. The increasing
winds and dry conditions will also bring a potential for critical
fire weather concerns and lake recreation impacts next week. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit quieter regarding thunderstorm activity for today, although
we will still see a few isolated late-day storms today and Friday
over the Sierra Crest in Mono County. Not expecting any direct
thunderstorm impacts at our area terminals, but if anything KMMH
has the best chance at about 10% each day. We will leave it out of
the TAF for now, but any trans-Sierra flights should be aware of
potential late day thunderstorms.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the Friday with light
northeast to east flow. Thunderstorm chances return for the
weekend as temperatures increase to well above normal. Hoon

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few isolated late-day thunderstorms are possible today and
Friday over the Sierra Crest in Mono County. Otherwise, the next
couple days should be much quieter with generally light winds
from the northeast.

We do see a return of thunderstorms to the forecast for this
weekend as temperatures climbing to well above normal with
moisture/instability creeping back to our area. Low pressure will
move into the Pac NW and northern CA early next week. This will
bring drier conditions, increasing winds, and periods of critical
fire weather conditions next week. Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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