


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
055 FXUS65 KRIW 032039 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 239 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms with the main concern being heavy downpours and gusty winds continue through the rest of the afternoon and evening. - Friday will see another round of showers and thunderstorms with activity more spotty in nature later in the afternoon and evening. - Quieter conditions are expected for the weekend with some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, especially Saturday. - Hot and drier weather looks to return for next week with elevated fire weather conditions possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers have continued to be widespread across the region, as expected. CAMs have been fairly inconsistent with timing and intensity of shower and thunderstorm activity today. The weaker reflectivity returns on radar have been generally just virga, as it seems as though the moisture surge has struggled to saturate the full column and there is still enough low-level dry air around that precipitation amounts are generally lower than expected. This should change with the secondary wave of showers and thunderstorms later this evening, and I would expect to see more locations to get rain this evening and overnight. Also, notably, convection has been suppressed for the most part. This is in response to significant high cloud cover that has persisted through much of the day across the region. In areas where this cloud cover has been more scattered, including eastern portions of the Wind River Basin into Natrona and Johnson Counties and eastern Sweetwater County, showers and thunderstorms have been more convective in nature. A slight sliver of the Marginal Risk for severe weather that is in place across northeast WY now extends into northeast Johnson County, where the better instability exists. Overall, several rounds of showers and storms are still looking likely through the rest of today and again Friday. For those with 4th of July plans, it is not looking like a complete washout, but there will be several rounds of showers and thunderstorms that could impact your BBQs and fireworks. Generally, the first round looks to move into western WY around noon or shortly before, pushing east of the Divide by 1300 or 1400. Chances then continue off and on through around 2200 to 2300 Friday night, with chances varying depending on where you are located and what model you look at. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Warm well above normal temperatures along with widespread showers and thunderstorms enveloped the Cowboy State on Wednesday. Thursday will see much of the same with a few exceptions, one being cooler more seasonable temperatures and the other being an influx of moisture. Temperatures for today will range in the mid 70s west of the Divide and mid 80s to low 90s east of the Divide. As mentioned earlier an influx of moisture will make its way into the region. PWATs are expected to near 1 inch translating to almost 200% above normal values. This will increase the chances for periods of heavy downpours as showers and thunderstorms develop and move across the state during the afternoon and evening. Storms will have the potential to produce localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas and susceptible urban areas. The other concern that develops on Thursday will be increased chances for strong thunderstorms. These increased chances are due to higher CAPE values along with more favorable dynamics as a result of a shortwave trough moving across the region. The best chances will be across central and northern WY with the main hazards being small hail and strong gusty outflow winds. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the late evening and early Friday morning before dissipating later in the morning. Looking towards Friday, the 4th of July, unsettled weather looks to be likely. Temperatures will cooler compared to earlier this week, returning to near seasonable values. Above normal PWATs linger which would create another day with chances for heavy downpours. Models show another shortwave move across the region with short range models coming into fairly good agreement regarding impacts and timing. Models indicate the best chances for showers and thunderstorms being across central and northern WY. The remainder of the state will have lesser chances for showers and thunderstorms but cannot be completely ruled out. A brief period of clearing during the morning and early afternoon may produce sufficient instability to fuel some stronger thunderstorm development. Along with this instability, more favorable dynamics will be in place as this shortwave moves across the area. The best chances for strong thunderstorm development looks to be across portions of northern and eastern WY. The main hazards for Friday will be small hail, strong outflow winds, and heavy downpours capable of localized flash flooding especially in poor drainage areas. All this information does make it seem like the day may be a complete washout. However, convection is looking to dissipate gradually during the evening and possibly by sunset. A few isolated showers may be lingering after sunset but as a whole activity should be dying down in time for 4th of July events. The weekend is looking less active but will still have some chances for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of these showers and thunderstorms will be less widespread with much of the state remaining dry. Temperatures will be seasonable but begin to gradually warm as ridging looks to start building in over the western CONUS. A period of hot and dry conditions is beginning to look more likely for the upcoming week. A big factor will be the strength of the ridging and how long it can prevail over the region. There is still time for things to change but as of right now the July heat and dryness looks to be right around the corner. This may lead to some elevated fire weather conditions so it will need to be monitored as we head into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1110 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A difficult TAF forecast. Moisture will be moving in from the south today. In combination with afternoon heating and shortwave activity, showers and thunderstorms are possible through much of the period for all sites. For this afternoon, chances are 20% to 40% starting roughly 18z. A shortwave keeps shower chances going even after this evening, lasting longest (until about 12z) further east at KCPR. PROB30 groups have been used for all sites through this afternoon for thunderstorm chances, which could bring brief visibility drops and gusty winds 30 to 40 mph. It will likely be a "hit-or-miss" kind of day on whether or not a thunderstorm moves directly over a terminal. With chances continuing tonight, PROB30 groups have been included at some sites for the rain shower chances. Chances generally decrease from west to east. Thunderstorm chances again increase Friday afternoon. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hensley DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Wittmann