Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KRLX 242004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016
Stationary frontal boundary remains over the area with few
lingering showers. High pressure for the the weekend. Cold front
Monday. Reinforcing cold front Tuesday. Cooler Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Minor adjustment done to hourly PoPs using latest radar images.
A frontal boundary remains stationary over the area today.
Scattered to numerous showers or storms can be expected through
tonight along the boundary. River Flooding continues at some
sectors. See Hydrology section below for more information on water
A saturated boundary layer, weak flow and mostly clear skies will
allow for dense fog development over the river valleys and areas
that received PCPN yesterday and today.
Went with the National Blend of models for temperatures through
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Saturday and
Sunday. A cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms
for Sunday night and Monday. Models are slower than previous runs
with the arrival of the moisture Sunday night...so will adjust
accordingly. Will also raise pops Monday afternoon in the eastern and
southern counties where front will have a bit of heating to work
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models showing a reinforcing cold front moving through on Tuesday.
Moisture is limited with this system however...so will keep pops
low. Much cooler air then moves in behind the front for Wednesday.
Used a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS mean/and ECMWF ensemble mean for
Thursday and Friday. This would bring a system across the area late
Thursday into Friday.
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stationary front remains over us tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this front. The front gradually exits
our area to the south by tonight. Behind the front, mostly clear
skies are expected as a high pressure builds in from the Great
With weak to calm flow, mostly clear skies, and a saturated low
atmosphere will allow for dense fog formation overnight, mainly
along the river valleys and areas that previously received rain.
Therefore, continue with current IFR ceilings at HTS and BKW for
few more hours. MVFR conditions will prevail along the mountains
and western slopes under low status.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and stratus formation/dissipation may
vary. Continued with a more pessimistic forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in Thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.