Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KRLX 221037 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 537 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... PATCHY STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS THINKING. HOWEVER... MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS SINCE YESTERDAY. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO ON MONDAY. COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL. TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500 FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX. MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY... AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. ANY FOG/MIST THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS OTHER FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY TODAY. THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFT 00Z MON. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFT 10Z MON. AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JSH
