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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 291855
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DRY AIRMASS HANGS ON MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE
MODERATING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THIS
PERIOD WITH S/W TROUGH OVERHEAD MOVING E THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ANOTHER WED AFTERNOON.

STUBBORN MORNING STRATUS FINALLY ALL BUT MIXED OUT.  SCATTERED
UNPLUGGED CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A W-E AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE NOT THAT DEEP AND LACK OF HEATING...NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FIGHT BETWEEN FOG AND STRATUS WITH FOG
WINNING OUT INITIALLY.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE DEALING WITH MORNING CU
AGAIN WED.  MODELS INDICATE INCREASED INSTABILITY WED AFTERNOON WITH
MORE SUNSHINE AND COOL AIR HANGING ALOFT...SO THE THUNDER CHANCE
RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF LATEST BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN U.S...WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CANADA. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE THE AREA WILL
KEEP A DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. FLOW WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LOWER LIKELIES IN THIS TIME FRAME
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST...DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND KEEPING THE
WEATHER ON THE COOL AND UNSETTLED SIDE. DRIER WEATHER WILL FINALLY
SETTLE IN TOWARDS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS / MORNING CU HAS MIXED OUT ALL BUT THE HTS AREA AND
THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE BY 21Z.  THE FEW SHOWERS SCATTERED ALONG AN
E-W BAND FROM SRN OHIO EWD ACROSS CENTRAL WV WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET.

TONIGHT WILL BRING MORE VALLEY FOG THEN STRATUS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OF EITHER.  HAVE DENSE FOG CRW AND EKN AND IFR FOG
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  STRATUS THAT DOES NOT FORM BY DAWN WED WILL
LIKELY FORM AS MORNING CU AFTER DAWN.  THIS MAY AGAIN TAKE ALL
MORNING TO MIX OUT.  WHEN IT DOES...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALLOWED TO FIRE UP.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT W ON
WED.  LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT W ON WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM