Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 270523 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 123 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY TUESDAY. SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... UPDATE... GAVE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SOME TLC. ALSO CLEARED OUT THE SKY A BIT MORE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE LAST STRATUS HOLDOUTS IN SE WV/SW VA. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS LEADS TO SOME FROST CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NE KY/SE OH/AND THE WV LOWLANDS. CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WONT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE FOR A HEADLINE. ALSO COMPLICATING MATTERS IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THUS...WILL ROLL WITH PATCHY WORDING IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...A FAST MOVING S/W TROF WILL PIVOT DOWN WITHIN OVERALL MEAN TROF. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AMID STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED WORDING OVER THE C AND S WV LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP NE KY/SW VA DRY. MAINLY LOOKING AT SOME CELLULAR SPLASH AND DASH TYPE SHRA. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE IN SNOW FLAK FORM AND HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF ACCUMULATION AT SNOWSHOE. LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE...SO AFTER SOME MORNING SUN...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND CAUSES WINDS TO GO CALM IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...SOME FROST IS A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLY VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH OF OUR REGION IS EFFECTED BY IT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... YET ANOTHER BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES GETS INGESTED INTO THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IN THE GFS AND EURO MODELS BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BIT OF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL NOT PUT ANY SNOW IN AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THEREAFTER...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO EXTREMES. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE EKN...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS COULD FORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WOULD BE THE CLOUDS NE OF KPIT THAT ARE DRIFTING SOUTH...BUT STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO EKN OR NOT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS BY TODAY...WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. MAINLY NORTH. ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AT EKN AND BKW TONIGHT IN THE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR AT EKN MAY NOT DEVELOP OR THE HOURS WILL VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/27/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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