Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262353 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS. THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES. FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE. USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN. MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT. SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE MAV FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AREA BETWEEN FEATURES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOWERED CONFIDENCE TO LOW BECAUSE OF THE AREA AROUND CRW TO CKB THAT SAW THEIR AIR MASS SATURATED FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...BUT NOW THE CLOUDS WERE THINNING. A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE THE VSBY TO DROP TEMPORARILY INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE. OTHERWISE STILL IFR AND LIFR OVER WV MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE 00Z TO 12Z. MEANWHILE...WHERE AIR DID NOT SATURATE ON WEDNESDAY...IN SE OHIO AND NE KY...CEILINGS HIGHER...MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BKN. MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ADVANCING QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER CLOUDS 03Z TO 06Z. LIGHT SNOW REFORMING OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY S OF CRW...HAVE BKW TAF SITE AFFECTED THE MOST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z. HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR AT 850 MBS 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY. VSBY OCCASIONALLY NEAR 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CNTRL AND NRN WV DURG THAT 18Z TO 00Z PD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY NOT DROP VCNTY CRW 00Z TO 03Z THIS EVENING IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DO NOT OCCUR. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H M M M M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WV MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB

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