Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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840 FXUS61 KRLX 250809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 409 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low over Ohio Valley will move east across the area bringing chances for showers and storms through Friday. Additional disturbances bring the chance for shower and storms over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... An upper low pressure system will move east from the Ohio Valley, east across WV through tonight. This track could bring additional rainfall to the area. In fact, high resolution and synoptic models are in agreement on a strong vorticity max that will sweep across the area this afternoon. Soils across the southern half of WV are near saturated, and the area is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. It will take less rainfall to produce flooding problems. Therefore, issued a Flash Flood Watch for counties across central and southern WV, and extreme southwest VA through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Upper level low will finally be well off to our northeast by Friday morning. Still could see some showers across the mountains until ridging builds in later in the day. Brief ridging will give way to more unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. A stationary boundary sets up from west to east across the area and this will be the focus for showers and storms through the weekend as several shortwave traverse the zonal flow. Still quite a bit of uncertainty for Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate very decent instability with generally 1500 to 2000 J/Kg of fat CAPE with EML basically overhead. However, it appears like there may be ongoing convection in the morning and not sure how this will affect convective development later in the day. Will weak short wave impulse that will pass later in the afternoon/evening be enough of a kicker to break the cap and kick off storms? Nonetheless, like I have mentioned the last couple of mornings, there is a chance for widespread severe storms Saturday afternoon with the ingredients that will be in place. Flash flooding also is looking like a real possibility as the convection and already low FFG values is not what we want to see anytime, let alone on a holiday weekend when campsites will likely be full. For now we will just have to continue to monitor as the forecast unfolds over the next couple days. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Models continue to highlight more showers and storms on Sunday through Monday as deep trough approaches from the west. However, the guidance has bounced around a bit on the timing of this feature, leading to low confidence in the forecast for days 4 through 7. Will stick with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for now. The main concern is definitely going to be flash flooding, as we are really going to see our share of rainfall leading up to the passage of this upper trough/cold front. Will start highlighting this in the HWO as well as possible severe storms mentioned in the short term. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1050 PM Wednesday... Showers are moving north away from HTS, CRW, BKW, but affecting CKB, EKN and PKB with IFR/MVFR conditions through a least 08-09Z. An MVFR ceiling could stay over most sites for the rest of the night. Conditions should improve by 13-14Z. A low pressure system could produce numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible along the heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... Forecast Confidence: Low ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Post thunderstorm environments tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/25/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR possible during rainfall. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for WVZ013-015-024>027- 033-034-515-517-519. OH...None. KY...None. VA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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