Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 242004 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 347 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Stationary frontal boundary remains over the area with few lingering showers. High pressure for the the weekend. Cold front Monday. Reinforcing cold front Tuesday. Cooler Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minor adjustment done to hourly PoPs using latest radar images. A frontal boundary remains stationary over the area today. Scattered to numerous showers or storms can be expected through tonight along the boundary. River Flooding continues at some sectors. See Hydrology section below for more information on water issues. A saturated boundary layer, weak flow and mostly clear skies will allow for dense fog development over the river valleys and areas that received PCPN yesterday and today. Went with the National Blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Saturday and Sunday. A cold front will then bring some showers and thunderstorms for Sunday night and Monday. Models are slower than previous runs with the arrival of the moisture Sunday night...so will adjust accordingly. Will also raise pops Monday afternoon in the eastern and southern counties where front will have a bit of heating to work with. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models showing a reinforcing cold front moving through on Tuesday. Moisture is limited with this system however...so will keep pops low. Much cooler air then moves in behind the front for Wednesday. Used a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/GEFS mean/and ECMWF ensemble mean for Thursday and Friday. This would bring a system across the area late Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A stationary front remains over us tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this front. The front gradually exits our area to the south by tonight. Behind the front, mostly clear skies are expected as a high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. With weak to calm flow, mostly clear skies, and a saturated low atmosphere will allow for dense fog formation overnight, mainly along the river valleys and areas that previously received rain. Therefore, continue with current IFR ceilings at HTS and BKW for few more hours. MVFR conditions will prevail along the mountains and western slopes under low status. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog and stratus formation/dissipation may vary. Continued with a more pessimistic forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in Thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ

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