Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220829 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 329 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits east first thing this morning. High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... A cold front, along with a narrow band of light rain right along and immediately behind it, was moving east across the area overnight. Just reaching the Ohio River as 3 AM approached, this band will be in the mountains by dawn, and evolve into post frontal upslope showers on the low level northwest flow that ensues behind the front. It will also be dawn before colder air changes the precipitation over to snow in the mountains, with up to a half an inch over the higher windward terrain after daybreak this morning. One limiting factor will be lack of favored crystal growth and even crystal presence temperatures, with moisture and colder air remaining shallow even well behind the front. The low inversion, near h85, persists through today, and then lowers even farther tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the breaking up of the stratocu later today and tonight. Temperatures fall behind the front early this morning, and then recover little today. Kept forecast highs below guidance given the inversion and weak late November insulation. Lows tonight are close to guidance, which is lower than previous in the mountains. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop temperatures overnight where it clears. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... No significant changes necessary to the short term period. High pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take hold for Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping out in the 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 325 AM Wednesday... Another progressive system will affect the region over the weekend. Rain and snow showers are expected to develop, particularly across the north, as a cold front sweeps across the region. After a brief lull in the precipitation later in the day Saturday and Saturday night, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous counties. Dry and cool weather for the start of next week, with moderating temperatures towards mid week. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 105 AM Wednesday... A second band of showers popped up Tuesday evening, well out of the front, as a pre-frontal trough interacted with low level moisture being drawn up from the south. This pre-frontal trough brought a wind shift to northwest through the mountains as 06Z approached. Surface flow will go back to light southwest, until the front crosses overnight and early Wednesday morning. Surface winds will shift to light northwest behind the front, and ceilings will drop to MVFR. This is timed for 09Z along the Ohio River, 11Z at CRW and CKB, and 12Z in the mountains, where the northwest winds will become a bit gusty for a period Wednesday morning. The first band of showers will move out of the mountains by 09Z, with no associated restrictions except an MVFR ceiling at BKW at times overnight. The second band of showers will accompany and follow the front, with a brief changeover to snow before ending Wednesday morning, mainly in the mountains. The MVFR ceilings will break up by Wednesday afternoon, with high pressure bringing VFR the balance of the period. Moderate southwest flow aloft will become moderate west overnight, moderate northwest Wednesday morning, and then light north for Wednesday afternoon and night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of MVFR stratocu could vary into Wednesday afternoon. BKW and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR overnight or early Wednesday morning. EKN could go MVFR or even briefly IFR on visibility in snow Wednesday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H L M H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M L H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H M M M H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H H H H H L AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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