Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300016 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 716 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 715 PM UPDATE... FINE-TUNED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REFORM AS THE COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING THE AREA...HAVING CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER BY 23Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPSLOPE EVENT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL BE BY 03Z IN THE MOUNTAINS. PREV DISCN... RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT LLJ. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT HAVING REACHED THE OHIO RIVER 22Z HTS AND 23Z PKB AND CRW 00Z...SHOULD REACH CKB AND BKW 01-02Z AND EKN 02-03Z. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS FOR AN HOUR OR LESS INITIALLY. CIGS WERE DROPPING TO MVFR EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LOWER FARTHER OVERNIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 05Z...A BIT SOONER EKN AND A BIT LATER BKW. IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI. CLOUDS BREAK UP AND LIFT SOMEWHAT FRI...ALLOWING FOR VFR AT TIMES AT LEAST IN THE LOWLANDS. W TO NW SFC WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRI. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MODERATE NW OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS SO THROUGH FRI. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRI NT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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