Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100008 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 708 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC FRONT BLOWS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AND BRISK WITH SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY FOR MOUNTAINS. COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... DEEP COMPACT AND VERY COLD UPPER LOW IS INBOUND...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROPOPAUSE FOLD NEAR SAINT LOUIS IN THE NAM ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ABOUT 800MB! THE UPPER LOW IS SET TO PASS OVERHEAD BY 12Z...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SLIPPING BELOW 510 DECAMETERS. WARM WEDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW CHANGED ALMOST ALL WINTRY MIX TO PLAIN RAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS OF 3PM...WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO...ARCTIC FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOOR AND READY TO SWING THROUGH. FRONT WILL BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z. LOOKING AT ABRUPT DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT...WITH A FLASH FREEZE OF ANY WET SURFACES THIS EVENING. ALSO...IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONT...LOOKING AT RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW BEFORE LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF OVERNIGHT /FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/ AS VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THEN...DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE QUICKLY BRINGS ACCUMULATING WIND SWEPT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL LOWLANDS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA TO FOLLOW. WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT DAWN. ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...THOUGH WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNING WILL END UP WITH LESS SNOW COMPARED TO THE EASTERN PORTION /WV MOUNTAINS/. ALSO...AREA THAT GOT ESPECIALLY WARM WEDGED WITH RAIN TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS...WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY WITH LESS TOTAL SNOW WHEN INCLUDING WHAT HAPPENED EARLIER TODAY. ALSO...WIND ADVISORY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WAS BACKED UP TO A START TIME OF 05Z...WITH INCREASING WINDS STARTING EARLIER DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSIVE VERY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A UNIQUE WARM ADVECTION SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST...A PSEUDO COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT LIFTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW...AND EFFECTIVELY ENDING MOST OF OUR PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIP WAS LIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND HIGHER WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. MOST TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSES A BIT LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT...UNTIL DEEP MOIST WRAPAROUND NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERSPREADS OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A UNIQUE PATTERN WHERE MOST OF OUR PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM ADVECTION SNOW...WITH ATLANTIC MARITIME AIR BEING DRAWN ALL THE WAY AROUND THIS UPPER LOW. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING ABOUT A MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THIS WARM ADVECTION NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT LOCALIZED HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW THAT WE COMMONLY FIND IN COLD ADVECTION NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND PLUMES OFF THE LAKES. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. DESPITE LACK OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THE MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOWS WITH IDEAL NORTHWEST FLOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY...AS CRITERIA NOT MET OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WEDNESDAY. SO AFTER TEMPS TAKE A FALL BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT...WE LOOK FOR SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. GOING ON THE LOWE SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING...LEADING TO QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LINGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW THE COLD PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL COLD PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IMPULSES IS LOW. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CAUSE COMPLICATED DEGRADED CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR SURGE AHEAD OF THE INBOUND LOW PRESSURE BRINGING VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG / WARM AIR OVER SNOW COVER/ IN S FLOW AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT. ARCTIC FRONT BLOWING THROUGH CRW RIGHT AT START OF PERIOD...HAVING JUST PAST HTS AND WILL ACROSS EKN NEAR 05-06Z AND THROUGH THE ARE ENTIRELY SHORTLY AFTER THAT. THIS WILL CLEAN OUT THE FOG BUT BRIEF IFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND SHIFTS TO WSW BAND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OCCURS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGS IN GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GENERAL MVFR WITH TIMES OF IFR EXPECTED IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT BLOWING SNOW MAY BRING IT DOWN TO WORSE THAN IFR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT VSBY AT TIMES AS CIGS STAY NO BETTER THAN MVFR. AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... INTERMITTENT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT MAY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>007- 009>011-017>020-027>032-035>040-046-047. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ008- 013>016-024>026-033-034. OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP/JMV/RPY NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

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