Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 290229 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1029 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will sag southward on Monday and Tuesday...with a stronger front on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 1030 PM Sunday... There is an outflow boundary from the PBZ CWA that has dropped south into the north central portion of WV...and has fired up some marginally problematic storms. The issue still remains that there is very little steering flow...so these remain stationary and drop high amounts of water over relatively small areas. Localized water issues are possible in these cases...but have not heard of any at this point. Expect activity to continue to wane overall over the next 1 to 3 hours. Previous Discussion... Will look for a bit more coverage of convection later thru the remainder of the afternoon over the N WV mountains and along the OH River and into SE OH especially...in association with a weakness in the ridge where some deeper moisture resides. Elected to let the heat advisory run its course as the mid deck is breaking up. After some lingering shra/tsra across SE OH this evening...will look for patchy dense river valley fog to set up in the usual locales. The upper high looks to reposition itself further to the W on Monday...putting the area in more of a NW flow regime aloft with a weak cold front trying to cross in the afternoon. Isolated shra/tsra can be expected...especially across the mountains. Highs will be similar to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Hot and humid weather to start the period with upper ridging in control across the eastern U.S. Frontal boundary will sag south into the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday...eventually crossing the region Wednesday into Thursday...with isold to sct showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front...cooler...and less humid air...as high pressure builds into the region from the north. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Much of the weekend to remain dry...and less humid with high pressure in control. However this will change as we approach the start of next week...as southwesterly flow increases out ahead of approaching frontal boundary. With upper ridging in place...left the forecast dry for start of next week...although a pop up shower or storm cant be completely ruled out during daytime heating hours. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 730 PM Sunday... Another challenging late summer aviation forecast with ongoing convection over the Ohio Valley creating issues with cloud coverage forecasts overnight along with the potential for valley fog development. First...the thunderstorms. Expect this to continue...but should largely be confined to the Ohio River terminals this evening and into tonight...but do not have no weather POPs across all areas until after 04Z or so. Thus...the issue with the convective mid and upper level cloud debris...which would inhibit fog formation. Temperatures do not figure to drop below the max dewpoints of the day...so this makes valley fog less likely of an occurrence. However...the guidance is aggressive with LIFR valley fog everywhere except BKW. As mentioned before...PKB and HTS are at the mercy of the storms over the next few hours. If any terminal receives rain...that would increase the chances of fog development...especially if clearing occurs late. In the end...will go with late IFR for places like CRW and EKN tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: T-showers may impact TAF sites. Extent of dense fog is in question overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 08/29/16 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L H H M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Early morning IFR possible in areas of fog into mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...26

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