Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252022 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 422 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure through Wednesday. Strong cold front may produce severe storms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially north Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Tuesday... High pressure will be quick to depart to the northeast, putting the CWA back into return flow and a quick increase in temperatures as low level warm air and moisture advection commences once again. Expecting river valley fog development tonight before the dewpoints increase in good radiational cooling conditions. Overall, no major changes to the dry forecast tonight and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 PM Tuesday... Although there are differences in the specifics, models are in very good agreement signaling an unseasonably strong low pressure system and attending strong cold front dropping southeast across the area for the later part of the work week. This is in response to the western upper ridge building, allowing for a vigorous upper low to drop southeast across the Great Lakes into the Midatlantic states by Friday. Dry high pressure will rapidly give way Wednesday night and Thursday to an increasingly moist and unstable airmass feeding northward ahead of the cold front. All the ingredients are there for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, an unusually cooler Canadian airmass moves in during Friday, but upper dynamics and wraparound moisture from the upper low will keep showers and storms going Thurday night and much of Friday, especially in the north. Because of this, given the recent heavy rains, flooding is also possible across the north Thursday night into friday. So look for a dramatic weather change from Thursday to Friday from very warm and humid to much cooler and damp.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 350 PM Tuesday... The aforementioned upper low and wraparound rains lift out early Saturday, with dry Canadian high pressure quickly taking firm hold over the region for the weekend. Unusually dry air will now be the rule for this time of year, with a slow warming under summer time sunshine. Still, temperatures for the weekend will be below normal, especially at night with the drier air. Early next week, although some heat and humidity will return as high pressure moves east, dry weather will still hold.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM Tuesday... Expect the MVFR ceilings in the northern terminals to eventually lift this afternoon and become a SCT VFR cumulus deck, with all other terminals VFR through early tonight. Radiation fog to commence after 05Z tonight, and all sites expected to reach LIFR conditions with the exception of BKW. Ceilings lift after 12Z Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog tonight could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday into Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/99 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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