Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261347 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 947 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure in control today. Mostly dry cold fronts later Wednesday and again Friday. High pressure for the weekend. A return to normal temperatures last half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 945 AM Tuesday... Adjusted hourly temps slightly as temps have not risen quite as quickly as previous forecast due to lingering fog. Otherwise, no major changes necessary. As of 225 AM Tuesday... Models are hinting at better low level moisture depth over the central and southern mountains with heating today, leading to a bit more robust cumulus field developing. However, still will be tough to get any showers out of this vertical growth. Pattern remains the same with a southwest to northeast oriented ridge. No significant changes to the temperature forecast, and drop the dewpoints during mixing today undercutting the guidance a bit in that facet. Valley fog expected again tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Tuesday... Amplifying northern stream upper trough over the northeastern CONUS allows a cold front to sweep across the Ohio Valley later Wednesday and Wednesday night, and pushes Maria out to sea with no effect on our area. This will be a moisture starved front thanks in great part to Maria, although with the help of diurnal heating we have just a slight chance of a light shower across the far north with the front later Wednesday. Another moisture starved cold front will drop across the area Friday, with only a slight chance of a light shower across the far north. The big change behind these fronts will be a return to near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... Upper ridging again builds over the Ohio valley with high pressure and dry weather dominating this period. Temperatures will still be near normal through the weekend, but a slow waring trend is in store for early next week. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 635 AM Tuesday... Conditions to improve from valley fog shortly after 12Z this morning, leading to VFR through at least 03Z tonight, when inconsistent valley fog will being to form again. Expecting a more robust cumulus field over the mountains today, but still VFR and very low shower chances. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...SL/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

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