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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 300016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REFORM AS THE COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING THE AREA...HAVING CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER BY 23Z.  THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPSLOPE EVENT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL BE BY 03Z IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREV DISCN...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAVING REACHED THE OHIO RIVER 22Z HTS AND 23Z PKB AND
CRW 00Z...SHOULD REACH CKB AND BKW 01-02Z AND EKN 02-03Z.  THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS FOR AN HOUR OR LESS INITIALLY.  CIGS WERE DROPPING TO
MVFR EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LOWER FARTHER OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 05Z...A
BIT SOONER EKN AND A BIT LATER BKW.  IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI.

CLOUDS BREAK UP AND LIFT SOMEWHAT FRI...ALLOWING FOR VFR AT TIMES AT
LEAST IN THE LOWLANDS.

W TO NW SFC WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MODERATE NW
OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS SO THROUGH FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRI NT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM