Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261759 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 159 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week. A cold front arrives Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday... Short wave trof axis will cross tonight a few showers. Isolated to scattered shower wording in the grids as this works through. The surface front will lag a bit...taking until late Tuesday morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger through the morning hours before mixing into a scattered cu field. All in all, another nice day on tap with below normal temps and low humidity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... An upper trough will provide a cold front and the forcing to act over limited moisture, to produce light isolated rain showers Tuesday. Models not bringing to much QPF with this feature. So confidence runs low. POPs around 30 percent is forecasted for Tuesday. Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below normal temperatures and dry weather Wednesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday, given warm and moist advection in the return flow around the exiting high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday... By Friday, deep southwest flow develops to bring moisture and warmer temperatures. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs. Models continue with different solutions providing low confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday... VFR conditions by and large through the TAF period. An approaching upper level trof and surface cold front will bring in a more widespread cloud deck at 6-8 kft overnight tonight. Scattered showers overnight have too low a probability of directly impacting a particular site to include restrictions which, if occurred, would be brief. Actual front will lag, taking until late Tuesday morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger during the morning before mixing into a scattered cu field. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/MAC NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30/TRM

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