Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201102 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 602 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Record highs expected today. Cold front midweek brings showers and storms. Front stalls through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 600 AM Tuesday... No significant changes made, forecast on track early this morning. As of 100 AM Tuesday... High pressure, at the surface and aloft, remains to our east, with southerly flow in place across the middle Ohio River Valley and Central Appalachians. This will make for a very warm day. High temperatures are actually a bit tricky today. We will see a fair amount of sun, although there will be some clouds drifting through. We will see some downslope effect with south to southeast winds -- however with the wind direction more southerly, we likely will not see as strong of downslope effect that a more southeasterly wind would produce. Finally the wet ground may have an impact. There is also a decent split between guidance -- with raw model data generally pointing at mid 70s across the lowlands, while MOS data indicates low to mid 80s. Chose to blend in a consensus of MOS into the previous forecast which resulted in near to just a touch above the previous numbers. This gives daily record highs at all climate sites, with monthly record highs at some. Monthly records are detailed following the climate header below. A cold front moves into the lower Ohio River Valley tonight. Have some low end POPs just entering from the west in the pre- dawn. Expect a mild night, with lows in the 50s to low 60s. Meanwhile, the Ohio River has crested throughout the forecast area, and river levels are now on the decrease.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Dry and warm weather pattern breaks down on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region, spreading showers, and thunderstorms back into the area. High moisture content air surging out ahead of frontal boundary, with pw values progged to rise to over 1.2 inches again, will result in periods of heavier rain at times. Frontal boundary will stall out across the region later in the day Wednesday, with additional waves moving along the front for Thursday, enhancing rainfall. Looking at around an inch of rain during the short term period across parts of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and northern WV zones, with less than 0.75 inches elsewhere. With saturated ground conditions, this period will need to be monitored for the possibility of future flood headlines, particularly across areas near the Ohio River. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Tuesday... Frontal boundary will lift back north across the region at the start of the period, with additional rounds of low pressure moving into the area. Once again, high moisture content air across the region, pw values over 1.3 inches at times, and good dynamics, will create heavy rainfall. Still looking like the Ohio River Valley area will receive the bulk of the precipitation, with southeast Ohio and adjacent counties along Ohio River receiving an additional inch of rain just in the Friday through Friday night time frame. Thinking that flooding of small creeks and streams, and main stem rivers will be likely again. Will continue to highlight in the HWO. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Tuesday... VFR is expected at all TAF sites through the TAF period with south to southeasterly low level flow. MVFR ceilings are expected along the eastern slopes with some low stratus, but do not anticipate this spilling over to BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/20/18 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .CLIMATE... Below are the record high temperatures for the month of February at the official climate sites, along with the most recent date that temperature was recorded. Beckley ------ 75F --- 2/17/1927 Charleston --- 80F --- 2/24/2017 Elkins ------- 77F --- 2/24/2017 Huntington --- 80F --- 2/24/2017 Parkersburg -- 79F --- 2/24/2017 && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ CLIMATE...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.