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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 261759
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
159 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses
Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the
week. A cold front arrives Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM Monday...

Short wave trof axis will cross tonight a few showers. Isolated
to scattered shower wording in the grids as this works through.
The surface front will lag a bit...taking until late Tuesday
morning to clear the area. As such clouds will linger through
the morning hours before mixing into a scattered cu field. All
in all, another nice day on tap with below normal temps and low
humidity.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

An upper trough will provide a cold front and the forcing to act
over limited moisture, to produce light isolated rain showers
Tuesday. Models not bringing to much QPF with this feature. So
confidence runs low. POPs around 30 percent is forecasted for
Tuesday.

Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below
normal temperatures and dry weather Wednesday.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday,
given warm and moist advection in the return flow around the
exiting high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...

By Friday, deep southwest flow develops to bring moisture and warmer
temperatures. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each
providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next
weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs.
Models continue with different solutions providing low
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday...

VFR conditions by and large through the TAF period. An
approaching upper level trof and surface cold front will bring
in a more widespread cloud deck at 6-8 kft overnight tonight.
Scattered showers overnight have too low a probability of
directly impacting a particular site to include restrictions
which, if occurred, would be brief. Actual front will lag,
taking until late Tuesday morning to clear the area. As such
clouds will linger during the morning before mixing into a
scattered cu field.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN
overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio
Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/MAC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30/TRM