Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 223 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WARM WAVE MOVES UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BASKING IN THE SUNSHINE AMID COOL AFTERNOON TEMPS. AFTER A STELLAR AUTUMN DAY TODAY...THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE CLEAR SKY FOR MOST...SAVE FOR SOME CIRRUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW OVER SE STATES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CIRRUS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SE FLOW. TOUGH TO FIGURE OUT FOG TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG FOR THE URBAN CENTERS. THEY MAY BE KEYING ON BL WINDS AND DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE WITH 3 TO 4 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MAIN STEM RIVER TEMPS REMAIN WARM AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY DENSE BUT SHALLOW RIVER FOG. REGARDLESS OF EXTENT OF RIVER/VALLEY FOG...TOMORROW SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER FINE WX DAY WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TEMPS...INCORPORATED THE CONSENSUS MOS...TWEAKING TOWARD LOCAL MOS FOR CCF SITES. THIS RESULTS IN A WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST WITH NO FROST THREAT FORESEEN. TOMORROWS HIGHS LOOKS TO BE AN IMPROVEMENT UPON TODAY BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC STATES AND COULD BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER...MILD AFTERNOONS AND COOL NIGHTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWLANDS OF WV THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DOWN SLOPING WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL OVER THE LOWLANDS. THEREFORE...KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE FLOW WEAKENS THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSEN UP AND A NEW BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEFT PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK GOOD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE OH VALLEY AND WV...TO BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. THE WARMEST DAY SEEMS TO BE SUNDAY UNDER NEAR CALM FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 80 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MODELS SHOWING INCONSISTENCIES FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEY ARE TRYING TO BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PCPN IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...BUT HAVE BEEN FLIP FLOPPING IN TIMING. THE GFS IS NO LONGER BRINGING PCPN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THE ECMWF BRING PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AS TIME APPROACHES TO SEE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. AGAIN...USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY DAY 4 WHICH USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SE ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE STATES. TOUGH FOG FORECAST TONIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING ENOUGH OF A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG AT LEAST FOR THE OH RIVER SITES. HOWEVER...WITH STOUT INVERSION SETTING UP AMID STILL WARM MAIN STEM RIVERS...ELECTED TO PUT KCRW/KEKN IN IFR OR WORSE RIVER FOG. ANY FOG BURNS OFF BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. EXPECT JUST SOME CIRRUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...30

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