Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261025 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 625 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure crosses this evening. A cold front crosses Tuesday morning. High pressure crosses Wednesday. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the week. A cold front arrives Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 625 AM Monday... Forecast on track. As of 315 AM Monday... A weak cold front and upper level short wave trough cross early today, with nothing more than patchy mid cloud. Weak high pressure slides by to the southwest of the area this evening. A somewhat stronger cold front and upper level trough approach tonight, bringing in the chance for showers from the west overnight. Limited moisture with lack of inflow ahead of the front, and overnight timing spell no instability, especially with a little mid level inversion indicated in the model soundings. Thus, not expecting any thunder. Temperatures close to near term guidance blends. The MET was a high outlier on highs today, especially given its own parent model h85 temperatures of 11C or less, under 10C for the middle Ohio Valley. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Monday... An upper trough will provide a cold front and the forcing to act over limited moisture, to produce light isolated rain showers Tuesday. Models not bringing to much QPF with this feature. So confidence runs low. POPs around 30 percent is forecasted for Tuesday. Cool high pressure settles in behind the cold front with below normal temperatures and dry weather Wednesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday, given warm and moist advection in the return flow around the exiting high. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday... By Friday, deep southwest flow develops to bring moisture and warmer temperatures. Aloft, several shortwave troughs will cross, with each providing potential showers and thunderstorms. A cold front next weekend should provide better organization and have likely POPs. Models continue with different solutions providing low confidence. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM Monday... VFR with light wind this period, with a scattered high cu deck midday and afternoon, broken at times. An approaching upper level trough and surface cold front will bring in a more widespread cloud deck at 6-8 kft overnight tonight. Scattered showers overnight have too low a probability of directly impacting a particular site to include restrictions which, if occurred, would be brief. Light south to southwest surface flow early this morning will become light west today, and then light and variable to light south to southwest tonight. Flow aloft will be light, mainly west. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None except MVFR fog possible KEKN overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms in the middle Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...TRM

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