Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280811 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 405 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES TODAY. MOISTURE STAYS MAINLY SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERN SYSTEM PASSES. UPPER LEVEL LOW SWEEPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A RARITY THIS MONTH...NO RAIN FORECAST...THOUGH AT 08Z A SPRINKLE MAY BE SPOTTED TO OUR N...NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR OUR COLDEST LOWLAND COUNTIES IN SE OHIO. MOST READINGS THERE ARE IN THE MID 30S WITH NOT MANY CLOUDS. IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF...PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER MAINLY OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST FLOW TRIES TO ADVECT THESE SW...BUT WITH THINNING MOISTURE...THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EVAPORATING ON THEIR TRIP S AND SW. THE LAST OF THE 850 MB COOL POCKET LINGERINGS OVER CENTRAL WV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR AT DAWN COULD SEE SOME REGENERATION OF CU 12Z TO 16Z. PEACEFUL EVENING PICTURED. ONLY BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP INTO DICKENSON COUNTY VA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. WITH LIGHT WIND AND NOT MANY CLOUDS FIGURED. TRIED TO STAY ON LOW SIDE OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... TWO MAIN FEATURES TO CONCENTRATE ON DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH WITH. FOLLOWED THE MODELS AND TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER POPS...AND TAKING LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SECOND FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. NAM/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE LOW LOCATION ON THURSDAY MORNING OVER NE ILLINOIS AND THEN DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TN AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM KEEPING THE LOW CUT OFF WHILE THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH. THE GFS STAYS WITH THE CUTOFF...BUT IS QUITE A BIT FARTHER EAST ON THE OVERALL TRACK...TAKING IT RIGHT OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TIMING...BUT FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH SIMILARITY TO GO WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THEN HAVE POPS EXITING TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS. ENDED UP A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY...THINKING WE MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL SUN WITH THE BEST MOISTURE STAYING FARTHER SOUTH. THEN THURSDAY SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM MARKS A PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER...EVOLVING INTO SLIGHT RIDGING BY DAY 7. OVERALL...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE...SO WILL SEE A WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WHICH COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW POPS THAT DO NOT CLIMB HIGHER THAN LOW END CHANCE. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF LOWERING TO SOME MVFR 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES INCLUDING CKB TO EKN 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY...AND MAY REACH DOWN TOWARD BKW. SOME MVFR IN VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN DEEP SHELTERED VALLEYS VCNTY KI16 AND S TOWARD GRUNDY VA FOR 08Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL THROUGH 18Z THEN 4 TO 6 THSD FT AGL MOSTLY SCATTERED. MOSTLY CLEAR 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWER CEILINGS OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MAY LINGER LONGER TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BY 18Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/28/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN RAIN SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FRIDAY MORNING OVER WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-075- 083>086. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...KTB

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