Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST TONIGHT. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH NARY A CLOUD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE BY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...CREATING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS WILL BE IN SE OHIO...BUT HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THICKER CLOUDS DOES CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST ON THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL NEW GUIDANCE...IN FACT THE MAV WENT FROM LOW 80S FOR CRW A COUPLE RUNS AGO TO UPPER 60S WITH THE RECENT 12Z RUN. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS RUNNING QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE RAW OUTPUT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME OF THE WARM BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS...ENDING UP 2 OR 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WET END TO THE WORK WEEK. ALL AGREE A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HANG UP OR DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES/SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT UNDER PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT...AND THEREFORE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM...MODELS DO AGREE ON A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE DRYING WE HAVE HAD...ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR WATER PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO ENHANCE AMOUNTS...THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. FOR NOW...NO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THERE WILL BE A BIG SWING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD...FROM WELL IN THE 70S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE MUCH OF THE HEAVIER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN...TO THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EASTER WEEKEND...SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARM BUT UNSETTLED. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AM EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SE OHIO...AND COULD GET MVFR IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. DID MENTION VCTS AT HTS AND PKB. VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY GET BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... FUEL MOISTURE GENERALLY RUNNING UNDER 10 PERCENT ACCORDING TO RAWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. FORTUNATELY...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WILL STILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WETTING RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ FIRE WEATHER...MZ

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