Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 011047 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 647 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today. Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible over the Coal Fields and SE WV.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south. Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at 15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris clouds from upstream convection. With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Difficult to figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity. Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during the day on Sunday. As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole Cwa at this time. The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should have a tendency to sink south with time. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the TAF sites this far out as a result. The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at KBKW late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...KMC/99 AVIATION...30

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