Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301342 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 937 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY. A LULL EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER HANDLE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BASED ON THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CAUSING THE SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE LOW CROSSING FROM E INDIANA INTO W OHIO SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW OHIO...MOVING TO THE NE AND GRADUALLY BEING TAKEN OVER BY A BIT DEEPER 500MB TROUGH ENTERING THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS TO OUR NORTH...DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE ACTUAL FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE IN OUR VICINITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER WITH THE BEST FORCING NOW REMAINING NORTH OF CWA...FEEL THIS RISK HAS DIMINISHED. MODELS ALL INDICATE THE FRONT MANAGES TO CLEAR THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF DOES SHOW A DECENT SLUG OF LIGHT BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY...AS WE ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WAVE RIDING UP THE FRONT. NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GFS KEEP ALL OF THIS SE OF CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THINK THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...AND HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK TO A CRW-CKB LINE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC AND ECMWF SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...MEANING AN UPTICK IN TEMPS AND A DOWNTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 925 MB FLOW AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND CLOUDS FORMING AT 5 TO 10 THSD HAVE KEPT THE PREDAWN VALLEY FOG IN WV TO A MINIMUM. STILL IN MOISTURE MAXIMUM BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS TRIES TO WORK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WERE FORMING AND MOVING NNE NEAR DAWN IN THAT MOISTURE MAX...BUT CAN NOT FIND A WELL DEFINED FEATURE TO TRACK/TIME. THINKING ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THROUGH 04Z SUNDAY. HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 04Z TO 08Z THEN INTO WV AFTER 08Z. YET...MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. HAVE CLOUDS AT 5 TO 10 THSD FT AGL AT 12Z...THEN CU FORMING AT 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN 14 TO 15Z TODAY...THEN MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT SCT TO BKN AGL AFTER 22Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY WOULD DROP IF A CONVECTIVE CELL MOVES OVER AN AIRPORT SITE TODAY. .AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...IFR IN CONVECTION SUNDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...KTB

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