Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160744 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 344 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ITS RETREAT INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A LARGELY CLOUDLESS DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER SUB FREEZING LOWS. WITH CLEAR SKIES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED...ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HILL AND RIDGE TOPS WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH 925MB FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY 12Z THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FIRST FOR THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WELL DEFINED SPLIT IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION. THERE IS PERSISTENT CONSENSUS IN LITTLE CHANCE OF PHASING...AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION OF THE TWO STREAMS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE CMC MODEL CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO DROP SOME NORTHERN ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW...BUT STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE AREA. TIMING IS SIMILAR WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS ONLY MODEST UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...SO A BIG QUESTION IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO ACT ON. THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE INGESTED NORTHWARD FOR OUR SYSTEM TO ACT ON. CERTAINLY NOTHING SPECIAL WITH THE PW/S...AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AT BEST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT KEEPING AT LEAST THE EXISTING LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY LATER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PROBABLY MUCH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF. AM DISCOUNTING THE NAM WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS EARLIER ON FRIDAY...LIKELY DUE TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WILL OMIT THUNDER. IN ALL...A VERY MODEST EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST MINOR COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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STRATUS CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF VFR -SHSN AT EKN...BUT EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS VFR BY 09Z. WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. VFR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME CONCERN OF BACK BUILDING OF THE STRATUS IN CKB AND HOLDING IN EKN LONGER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 04/16/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>032. OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067- 075-076-083>087. KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103- 105. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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