Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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829 FXUS61 KRLX 071413 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 913 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 915 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS UPDATE TO ALIGN THEM WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S LOWER ELEVATIONS...RANGING TO AROUND 30 DEGREES HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DETERIORATE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGS GOOD CHANCES FOR PCPN...OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND PARTS OF WV SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WHILE CONSTRUCTION OF THE SNOW FORECAST TOOK QUITE A BIT OF TIME THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE ARISEN OVERALL. STILL LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION...SLOW ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EVENT IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SOME ELEVATION ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT AS OPPOSED TO THE FAVORABLE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL BE GOOD...AND THE FALLING 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE EVENT OVERALL. LOWLANDS HAVE SLIGHT INCREASES TO MORE OF A 2 TO 4 INCH POTENTIAL...BUT AGAIN... THIS WILL BE OVER A 48 PLUS HOUR TIME FRAME. KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY...DROPPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINOR LOWERING OF THE MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. NUDGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD THURSDAY EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH WEAK IMPULSE SHOWN ON GFS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TRENDING DRIER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. COLD ROCK OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND FOR PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL TURN LIGHT S TODAY. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHILE TURNING BACK TO LIGHT SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY...TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS OR WORST ALONG THE STRONGER SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JW/MC AVIATION...ARJ

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