Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KRLX 011047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016
Frontal boundary with isolated thundershowers arrives late today.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --A cold front will approach the area later today. Moisture with
this feature remains limited so thinking any shra/tsra would be
confined to the front and isolated in nature late this aftn and
early evening. The front loses steam tonight and becomes quasi
stationary just to our south with areas of low stratus possible
over the Coal Fields and SE WV.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
00z Nam tried to develop a few showers Saturday afternoon in our
Virginia Counties. Will be a bit more optimistic with slightly
lower pops...trying to push the surface front a bit further south.
Forecast soundings on both Gfs and Nam depict near saturation at
15 to 20 thsd ft over cwa during the day on Saturday...debris
clouds from upstream convection.
With front stalled out to our south...mid level moisture
increases overnight Saturday night into Sunday. Difficult to
figure timing and coverage of any showers...but did increase
pops a bit Sunday afternoon over the Hts Tri state vicinity.
Tried to keep pops aob 14 pct in our far northern counties during
the day on Sunday.
As low level inflow at 925 to 850 mbs increase Sunday night...in
conjunction with mid level disturbance riding up the Ohio
Valley...had to increase pops for Independence Day and mention the
possibility of heavy rain. The 00z Ecmwf seemed a bit aggressive
with its 925 mb circulation and lifting the heavier axis further
north in comparison to the gfs. In any case...can not get to
deterministic at this distance in time on what latitude stands the
best chance for repetitive rounds. Mesoscale features may have the
final say. So our hazardous weather potential does mention the
flash flood threat for Independence Day into Tuesday for whole
Cwa at this time.
The later rounds of convection Monday night into Tuesday should
have a tendency to sink south with time.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will arrive from the west late this aftn and early
evening with limited moisture. Thinking coverage of shra/tsra with
this feature will be isolated and have left out a mention in the
TAF sites this far out as a result.
The front will become rather diffuse just to the south of the area
overnight with some low stratus possible over SW VA. A light NE
low level wind may allow for IFR or worse cigs/vsby to develop at
KBKW late tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.