Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200016 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 716 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... With high pressure passing south of the area, a southwest flow will bring milder air through the weekend, with a warm front passing Saturday. A strong cold front crosses late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 705 PM Friday... Watching the stratus deck in the Tennessee Valley this evening and the implications here overnight. The NAM and RAP models seem to have a good handle on this in their respective soundings. They bring this deck into parts of the area late through significant moistening in the H9 to H875 layer, primarily along and east of the Ohio River. As a result, I have increased sky grids considerably late and carried this deck through much of Saturday east of the Ohio River. Tweaked hourly temps tonight to show a quick fall in the hollers and sheltered valleys versus the hilltops. Once the clouds move in, temps should level off and rise toward morning. As of 200 PM Friday... A ridge of high pressure remains in place with the center of high pressure over the north central Gulf coast providing dry weather to start the near-term. Brilliant sunshine and modest low- level warm air advection warms us nicely into the 40`s across lowland locations this afternoon. Decoupling tonight a little tougher than last night with SW flow picking up aloft, but still a decent bet in the most deeply incised, sheltered valleys. Models are still struggling to latch onto any one solution at this point. So have chose a middle-of-the-road approach favoring cooler temperatures in low spots. Tomorrow, moisture starts streaming in from the west/southwest providing some low-level clouds/stratus to start. Low-levels and eventually mid-levels saturate through the day, particularly across the northern zones. So, have decided to introduce drizzle Saturday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Friday... A warm front moves towards the area late Saturday night with overrunning. Forecast soundings are indicating a period of possible drizzle and fog as the warm moist air starts to push in. In the Northeast mountain valleys, some areas could be below freezing and may have a period of freezing drizzle or fog before we eventually warm early Sunday morning. Warm frontal light rain will continue on Sunday, with very light amounts expected. Temperatures Sunday will just up into the mid to possibly upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Thursday... Strong cold front will push into the Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. POPs increase quickly after 18Z Monday and widespread rain will overspreads the region Monday night. Thinking amounts should only be a half in or less in most places, but on the high end, maybe three quarters of an inch could fall in some spots. Cold air will push in behind the front on Tuesday and could see a changeover to snow, especially in the mountains, but moisture will be limited. Flow aloft settles back into a zonal pattern for the back end of the extended forecast. High pressure and warmer air should work back in by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 710 PM Friday... VFR conditions thru 06Z amid light southwesterly surface winds. Thereafter, low level moisture will increase with low stratus building into the area from the Tennessee Valley. This should allow MVFR cigs to develop across most terminals, except KPKB, in the 09 to 12z time frame. This stratus will linger through much of Saturday and perhaps lower during the afternoon, especially at KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing onset of MVFR cigs may vary an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night with fog and drizzle...and again Monday/Monday night with rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MC NEAR TERM...30/MC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...30

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