Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240830 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT AND WED MORNING. WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT FORMS IN THE AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS AS WELL. NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY. .AFTER 06Z MONDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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