Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271431 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1031 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT SPLATTER PATCHY PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HEAT BUILDS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGER FRONT ABOUT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE NORTH. SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT BEING GENERATED BY SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WORKING SOUTH ACROSS SE OH AND NE KY. HAVE SEEN A FEW STROKES OF LIGHTNING AS WELL. DISSIPATING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASED DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER NOON...AS SOME DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR NEAR TERM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WV...AND SOUTHWEST VA WHERE A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD STILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SUIT ARE SLOWER BRINGING PCPN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...EXITING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND AND CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS. THE HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN REACH THE LOWER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY FRIDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING AS A RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION AMONG LONG RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MAINTAINS A FAIRLY NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. THE EURO IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER...WITH A MORE EXPANSIVE RIDGE...LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON RAIN OR STORMS...AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL FEATURE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...RELIED MORE ON WPC FOR GUIDANCE...WITH GENERALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOWER-END AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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BIGGEST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG. MODELS GOING WITH FG/BR FOR MANY SITES...BUT DEW POINTS ARE SO HIGH AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING...SO QUITE HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. WILL SAY MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES DEALING WITH BL THERMODYNAMICS COMPARED TO OBS...WHICH MAY BE A REASON FOR THERE OVERFORECASTING OF FOG. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...MIST/FOG DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z MON MAY BE THICKER IN WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THAN FORECAST IF CLOUDS BREAK UP. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... AHEAD OF...AND ALONG...FRONT...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORM OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF FRONT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...DTC AVIATION...JW

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