Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 280547 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 147 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Slow moving convection with heavy downpours again today. Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance Sunday in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another warm and somewhat humid day on tap with isolated to widely scattered tsra this aftn and early evening. Such is life on the edge of the ridge. It remains difficult to hone in on any specific area for convection later today. However...outside of any isolated mtn convection...NAM model continues to indicate sct convection firing over the Kanawha Valley by 21z and slowly propagating off to the NW early this evening. The previous fcster looks to have handled this well on the day shift and only some fine tuning was made to the pops...mainly to increase to around 40ish for POP flanked with slight chance. Another area to potentially hone in on is across portions of SE OH. Expect downpours in any convection with locally heavy rain given the light flow thru the column and high moisture levels. Added a degree to highs today from observed values yesterday yielding mid to upper 80s in the lower elevations. Suspect a spot 90 will be observed in the urban centers...especially in and around HTS/CRW. Any evening convection will slowly wane as attention turns to low pressure along the SE coast. With an approaching upper trof...models are trying to pull in deeper moisture from the tropical/subtropical system Sat night. This will result in an increase in clouds with a few shra possible toward morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Area sits in deep layer south to southeast flow Saturday night and Sunday, between an upper level ridge along the eastern seaboard, and an upper level shortwave trough lifting through the midwest. A broad shortwave trough over the southeastern states serves almost as an extension to the midwest one, but surface low pressure associated with it comes ashore into the Carolinas and then meanders northward. It appears that the moisture associated with the system coming from the southeastern states will be drawn northward in a corridor up the appalachians, but no farther west. As such...have pops going to likely in the northern mountains of WV Sunday afternoon. The moist corridor shifts east of the area late Sunday and Sunday night, as the midwest shortwave turns eastward and moves across the Great Lakes Sunday night, and then the northeastern states on Monday. This brings us back into the diurnal thunderstorm mode for Monday, and, as drier low level air arrives from the west in the wake of the upper level shortwave trough, the late day thunderstorm chance on Monday should be limited mainly to the mountains, which will then quickly die down with the sunset. Guidance continues to trend downward for highs on Sunday given the moist corridor giving rise to plenty of clouds. Otherwise temperatures were reasonable in light of the latest guidance, with little if any change needed. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level ridging rebuilds over the central Appalachians and middle Atlantic seaboard in the wake of the exiting shortwave trough. This leads to a dog day summer pattern for the middle portion of the short work week, with diurnally driven thunderstorms tending to favor the mountains per elevated heat source. Models begin to diverge on the strength and timing of the ridge, which is stronger and peaks later, on Thursday, in the GFS solution, while weaker and peaking on Wednesday in the ECMWF solution. This model divergence continues on Friday, as the ECMWF rolls an upper level low across southern Canada during the week, which then pushes a cold front through the area on Friday. The GFS has divorced itself from this solution, instead shearing out the southern Canadian low, and dropping another southeastward through the plains states toward the lower Mississippi valley. The forecast does not bite on the left turn taken by the GFS, and instead picks up on an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, before turning slightly drier and cooler late Friday and Friday night. Temperatures close to central guidance with little change through day 6, and then the trend toward slightly lower values. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR valley fog developing thru 09z...particularly in areas that received rainfall during the day. Some IFR or worse fg has been coded up at KEKN. Any morning fog will burn off with sunrise for a return to VFR conditions areawide. SCT/BKN cu field will quickly develop with heating and isolated convection will be noted this aftn. Only included a VCTS mention at KCRW after 21z where confidence is greatest...though still not high...for convection in the area of the terminal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR fog may develop over KPKB thru the predawn hours. Extent and coverage of convection this afternoon remains in question...especially regarding any location that may be affected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/28/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... The river gauge...and forecast point...at the South Side Bridge in downtown Charleston has not be reading correctly. The NWS hydrologist is working to correct this problem. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...26 HYDROLOGY...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.