Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 201031 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 631 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control, with cool nights and warm afternoons through the weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure system crosses early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM Friday... Surface high pressure moves directly overhead with mostly clear skies through the period. Temperatures will continue to moderate and highs will climb a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. With the high overhead tonight, boundary layer winds will be light, valley fog will likely be thicker than we saw the last two nights. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... High pressure remains in control through the short term.Used a consensus blend for highs and lows, with temperatures continuing to run above normal for late October. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Friday... A cold front will push through Monday night into Tuesday. Models have some discrepancy on timing of the front, and especially the track of the low pressure system the front is attached to. The ECMWF is much farther west, taking the low from Western TN, through IN and Northwest OH. The GFS on the other hand brings the low across the forecast area. Either solution should still result in a good dose of precipitation, so have a fairly broad area of 80+ POPs. Kept some low probability thunder mention in Monday afternoon just ahead of the cold front. Cold air filters in as an upper trough slides through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Should enough moisture linger behind the surface feature, we could see some snow flakes at high elevations. A brief ridge dries things out to end the work week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 630 AM Friday... High pressure overhead today with mostly clear skies. Low level flow will be much weaker tonight through Saturday morning, so IFR valley fog will be possible. Higher confidence for IFR fog early Saturday morning at CRW and EKN, so have added with the 12Z TAF issuance. May have to expand fog coverage as forecast becomes more clear later today or this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today and medium overnight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR fog development tonight will vary from current forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning through the weekend, and in rain at times early next week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...MPK

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