Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250234 CCA AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT. VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL. SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT 02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH. FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO 5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH. HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW. FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. .AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...KTB

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