Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 301838 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 238 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives Thursday with showers and storms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Have a discreet little band of moisture that has just traversed the Ohio River...allowing convection to build just enough to support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. Band of moisture shows up really well in the 700-600mb layer...where this layer is bone dry elsewhere across the CWA. Convection also going up over the mountains early this afternoon...but again...looking at isolated to scattered activity. Clearing tonight with developing valley fog likely. Dewpoints down in the lower 60s will allow for temperatures to drop as low...with 50s in the higher elevations. Ridging aloft returns...with weak disturbances within. Mid levels will still be very dry...less some convective feedback seen on the NAM over the mountains...which should limit any realized shower/thunderstorm activity. Did increase the coverage of the low POPS tomorrow...but still confine them generally to the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Much of short term periods will feature mainly tranquil wx. Upper level heights will quickly build back over the region Tuesday into Wednesday before height falls work back in with the approach of the next wx maker. As for Tuesday and Wednesday...kept isolated mention of popup shra/tsra over portions of the northern mountains...otherwise rolling with a dry and warm forecast. I suspect there will be the daily morning does of dense river valley fog to contend with. As mentioned above...an amplifying trof will move into the upper Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This will bring a cold front thru long about Thursday. This will bring a good chance of shra/tsra to the area and have coded up pops into the likely range. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 230 AM UPDATE... Model consensus is for a deeper push of drier air into the area later Friday and Saturday. Updated pops to reflect this drier trend taking hold. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The mid levels of the atmosphere are very dry...which is a main reason why the cumulus formation during heating today does not have much vertical extent to it. There are low chances of showers or an isolated thunderstorm from about CKB to CRW and east through 00Z Tuesday...but not high enough for prevailing or VCTS/CB. Valley fog to settle in to many locations tonight...and relied heavily on LAMP guidance for this. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of valley fog tonight may vary. May need brief MVFR in SHRA through 00Z Tuesday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ/30 AVIATION...26

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