Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220653 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 253 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure continues through tonight. Strong cold front and low pressure system crosses Monday and Monday night, with much cooler weather by midweek. Another cold front next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As 240 AM Sunday... High pressure remains in control through tonight. The winds will become southeast tonight, producing downslope warming. Highs this afternoon could reach 82 degrees in the warmest spots. Lows will be in the 50s. Went with the bias corrected SREF with few adjustments for highs today. Used the blend of models for lows tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Main feature for the short term is the cold front which will push through late Monday and Monday night. Models have come into a bit better agreement on the synoptic features. A surface low should cross from central TN through central/western OH Monday and Monday night. Some small differences in the models at 500mb, namely on when the associated closed low opens and accelerates to the NE. Generally looking at 1-2 inches of rain...mainly Monday night. Will probably see some lingering showers behind the front on Tuesday, but main upper level forcing holds of until Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... In the wake of the cold front, much cooler weather is expected mid week. Will also have an upper level trough passing over Tuesday night through Wednesday night with showers. 850mb temperatures continue to look cold enough for show showers across the northern mountainous counties. Surface high pressure passes Thursday and Friday with another decent cold front expected Saturday per GFS -- or Saturday night per ECMWF. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 AM Sunday... High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions through the Sunday night. Satellite images show few to scattered cirrus moving across the area overnight. Smoke plume from fire just south of PKB had will likely shift northwestward and lower across the area tonight as winds turn very light southeasterly. Should this occur, vsby and/or cig restrictions may be realized given the lowering ventilation rate and developing low level inversion. So, for now, will code 4SM in smoke for PKB overnight due to very low confidence on impact of and duration of this plume. Otherwise, the NAM and RAP models show boundary layer winds of 15 to 20 knots from the south. This winds will keep good ventilation preventing dense valley fog formation overnight. The exception will be at site EKN which is more protected where IFR visibilities of ceilings are expected during the 10Z-13Z time period. Widespread VFR conditions are expected on Sunday as the high pressure drift east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High except at PKB. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Smoke may restrict vsby and/or cigs more than forecast at PKB tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/22/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... A strong cold front will cross the area Monday and Monday night. IFR conditions and gusty winds can be expected along the heavier showers or storms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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