Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221741 CCA AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds linger today. High pressure arrives tonight and lingers Sunday. Weak cold front Sunday night. Stronger system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 PM Saturday... Most of the low stratus has broken up, but only to be replaced by a cumulus deck in the cold air advection that is in full swing. Checking out the webcams from the northern mountains, it looks like any lingering rain/snow showers have ended. Surface high pressure passes to our south overnight, but also have a weak 500mb ripple passing to our north. This could keep a cloud around...especially in upslope regions through much of the night. Models trying to spit out some QPF, but did not include any POPs as the low levels are very dry. With some flow and clouds remaining overnight, did not include any frost with temperatures bottoming out in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s. Went with a slightly non-diurnal temp curve overnight for the higher elevations where 850mb temps start increasing after midnight. Sunday should be a nice day. With high pressure sliding east, will get some warm air advection, and when combined with plenty of sunshine, temperatures will recover nicely from todays chill. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Surface high pressure is overhead to start the period with mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing above normal. Guidance is in agreement that a weak cold front will pass on Sunday night into Monday morning, however the current thinking is most areas will be dry with only a slight chance of a shower in the mountains. Flow will likely be strong enough Sunday night to prevent fog formation...however we could see widespread fog overnight Monday with weak flow and mostly clear skies expected overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday... The upper ridge continues will be overhead through at least mid week. Guidance was in fairly good agreement with the system towards the end of the week and then the 00Z guidance came in. Now, some of the guidance is progressive with the front pushing through while other solutions hold the surface high overhead and this would keep us dry. For now I used a blend of operational and ensemble guidance for days 5 - 7 and will keep PoP around 60 for now. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM Saturday... Low stratus has been replaced by VFR cumulus deck this for this afternoon. Those clouds should mostly dissipate after sunset, however as a weak upper level wave moves by some clouds will linger overnight. Should keep some low level flow going as well, so did not include fog. High pressure will provide VFR conditions Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Could get a rain/snow shower in the northern mountains overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. Missing. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR in valley fog possible next week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.