Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241843 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Increasingly warmer and more humid air encroaches. High pressure maintains a foothold on the area though afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Generally quiet for the remainder of the afternoon with just some flat cu with some cirrus thrown in for good measure. For tonight we will be tracking a mid level feature moving across the area. Models are by and large in agreement on any line of shra/tsra weakening on approach. So...will continue with previous forecast idea of chance pops and roll with coverage wording. With this feature moving across with some clouds amid a strengthening low level flow...dense fog should be confined to the more sheltered mountain valleys and hollows. This disturbance moves E of the area by midday Thursday with mid level drying left in its wake to keep things warm and primarily dry for the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Wednesday... Hot and humid weather expected again for late August. Broad area of high pressure will act to minimize any fronts that move into the area mainly just increasing cloud cover and perhaps kicking off an aftn shower or tstorm. Any severe weather should remain north of our area though will not rule out any isolated water issues especially near the more juicy air in Ohio.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 335 PM Wednesday... Stubborn high pressure continues though begins to erode as a tropical system slides westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Flow turns more zonal over our area though no appreciable weather in this period at this time. Maintained schc to chance PoPs for the dirty ridge.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 2 PM Wednesday... 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday... VFR thru 00z amid some flat cu and cirrus. After 00z...an upper disturbance from the north and west will keep vfr ceilings 6000-10000 feet up north. There is a small chance for a shower or storm 03 to 09z with this disturbance...primarily for N TAF sites. These VFR ceilings will then spread south and east after 06z to encompass most of the area by 12Z. This feature along with a strengthening low level flow off the deck should keep dense fog confined to KEKN if even there. Aforementioned disturbance shifts E of the area on Thursday for a return to VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in morning river valley fog possible through the weekend...depending on cloud cover.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JW/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...30

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