Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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706 FXUS61 KRLX 221807 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in this afternoon, then low pressure and unsettled conditions return as early as Tuesday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... No significant changes to the forecast this afternoon. Did introduce slightly more cloud cover in the sky grids to account for lingering clouds and streaming cirrus. Otherwise, forecast is on track. As of 1050 AM Monday... Radar still showing some lingering showers in the mountains with other locations rain free. Visible satellite imagery highlights clearing north of the Ohio River. Expect rain to taper off in the next few hours and clearing to slowly overspread the area as a surface high slowly slides northeast across Ohio. Until the pressure gradient relaxes more, could see occasional gusts on the order of 10 to 15 kts. Otherwise, temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. Moisture returns tomorrow ahead of a wave rounding the base of an upper trof to our west. While there are questions as to how far the moisture will reach, will carry PoPs south of the Ohio River with the best chance of showers in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Not too many changes in the overall forecast. Weak low pressure will pass to our south and east on Tuesday with the best forcing remaining well to our east. I did bring in a chance for showers with highest PoP in the mountains, but guidance is in good agreement with keep any heavy rain in Central Virginia. Deep upper trough digs over the region on Wednesday. Strong surface low tracks up the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday night. This will spread widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms into our area, but with relatively low PWAT values we are not expecting any issues with flooding. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Start the period with deep upper trough overhead and then sliding east of the area Thursday night. There will be a chance for a few showers on Thursday, but brief ridging start to build in later in the day. The pattern turns zonal thereafter and several waves move through the flow that will keep conditions unsettled through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... Still watching clouds slowly scatter and lift as high pressure builds into the area. Pockets of gusty winds remain this afternoon, but should subside as the pressure gradient relaxes. Expecting mainly high cirrus for the remainder of the day. Overnight, concern is with fog development in river valleys. Guidance this morning has remained conservative, particularly near KEKN, and there is uncertainty with the current forecast as to lowest vsby expected and northward extent of fog development. Introduced a few hours of MVFR fog at KHTS/KCRW/KPKB and borderline IFR at KCKB. At KEKN, expecting at least some IFR fog starting around or after 23/06Z. In addition to fog, an approaching low to our south will promote gradually lowering cigs after 23/06Z, particularly in the mountains. Didn`t quite bring KEKN or KBKW to MVFR, but timing may vary, especially if SHRA materializes earlier than anticipated. Expect SHRA to move into southern and eastern terminals around or after 23/12Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through tonight, then medium for fog and cigs by Tuesday morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Dense fog is possible Tuesday morning, then increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...DTC

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