Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281755 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THIS WEEKEND. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...MOSTLY FALLING FROM HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND ATTM ACROSS NORTHEAST KY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL REACH THE KY/WV BORDER AROUND 22Z. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 700 AM UPDATE... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHOWED UP NEAR THE TUG FORK, WITHIN THE SCHC STRIPE DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. PREV DISCN... UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NY AND NE TODAY....LEAVING THE ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMING IN ITS WAKE DRIFTS E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING AN EQUALLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN STATES THIS MORNING TO DRIFT NWD INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE SFC FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE N REMAINS THERE. THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AT FIRST. THE AREA OF CONVECTION AND CELL MOVEMENT WILL DRIFT NWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DISTURBANCE...THE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONT JUST TO THE N...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO DIE OFF TONIGHT. SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.75 IN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE HIGH WATER. MORNING CU KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING OUT OF THE GATE FOR A TIME WED...AND HIGHS WERE MODEST. SOME MORNING CU THIS MORNING... ALONG WITH A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY COMING OFF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE S...MAY AGAIN PLACE A LIMIT ON MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE TO LOWER A BIT BUT STAYED ON HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT WERE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY IN THE WARM HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE LOOKS TO BE NO END IN SIGHT TO THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL PREVAIL UNDER A VERY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS PER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL PCPN EXPECTED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE SOUTH. A SHORT WAVE...LOOKING LIKE A LOW CIRCULATION ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGES WITH CENTER ACROSS THE KY/TN BORDER...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN OR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH ALONG SOUTHEAST OH THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR AT MOST. PCPN WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS COULD DEVELOP TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WHICH SITE WILL BE IMPACTED ATTM. THEREFORE...MENTIONED VCSH AND VCTS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW. LOW MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT BKW...CRW...AND PKB POST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS...PERHAPS DOWN TO 1500 FEET. MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY THEN MIX OUT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STRATOCU / MORNING CU MAY NOT MATERIALIZE MUCH. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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