Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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365 FXUS61 KRLX 170519 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 119 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for the latter part of the work week, and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1000 PM Monday... Fog has formed in portions of the Tygart River valley near Elkins. Have raised temperatures right along the river in the EKN vicinity, but think freeze warning is still warranted for outlying areas in NW Randolph county. Clarksburg looks like it will struggle to reach freezing also following the bit of rain earlier today, but again, outlying areas that did not get hit by a shower could still get a freeze. So in the end, no changes to going frost/freeze products. As of 720 PM Monday... Only made some minor changes to going forecast. Do have some concern that in areas where it rained...mainly across northcentral WV...fog could form and slow the temperature drop some. Dew points shot up into the lower 40s in the showers and have been slow to drop back. As of 1120 AM Monday... With the cold front way to our east, northerly flow will continue to bring colder air to the area. A sfc high pressure will build across the OH Valley, WV and the mid Atlantic states through the rest of the week providing dry and cold conditions through the period. Afternoon cu will be common on Tuesday. At night, clear skies, calm winds, dry dewpoints and cold temperatures will allow radiational cooling to drop temperatures below freezing across the northeast and central mountains, and widespread frost across the lowlands. Therefore, issued a Freeze warning for counties from Taylor county, south including Pocahontas and Randolph continuing south into Nicholas county. A Frost advisory has been issued for the rest of the area. Both headlines are from midnight through 10 am Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... Surface high pressure dominates the period with very dry low- and mid-levels. Southern stream troughing and northern stream ridging on either side of the region holds off any precipitation- producing systems to start the period. A trailing cold front appended to the northern stream near the end of the period will struggle to reach the region as high pressure wins out. Clear skies and weak flow will allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight, especially Wednesday morning where frost is again likely in the northern mountains and possible in the northern lowlands. Wednesday`s cool start will drop dew points and thus afternoon RHs, leaving mountainous areas in the mid- to upper-20`s and other locations in the mid- to lower-30`s of percentage RH. Thursday`s RH values will be only modestly higher given slightly lower afternoon high temps with the aforementioned cold front washing out over our area. Light winds limit the fire threat in spite of increasingly dry fuels. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Monday... High pressure builds behind the aforementioned cold front, centers over the CWA Friday afternoon, and gradually shifts eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast with the approach of an amplified long wave near the end of the period. The warming trend will continue as low-level flow gains a more southerly/southwesterly component, though moisture beyond the boundary layer remains scarce. The next weather-maker in this region is currently forecast to encroach from the West Sunday night into Monday with an elongated cold front running North/South, bisecting the CONUS. A chance of shower activity of some variety exists in this time range. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 120 AM Tuesday... Local LIFR/VLIFR valley fog possible 06-13Z in sheltered river valleys. Otherwise, VFR with light surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/17/17 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Dense valley fog possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ031-032-039- 040-519>526. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518. OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MC NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...SL

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