Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S. THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. LINE OF CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN. COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG. THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER SIDE. THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS. EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET. SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI. THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. LLWS CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET. ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L M M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...TRM

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