Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291917 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 317 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Moist southeast flow will raise shower chance today in the mountains. Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. cold front arrives thursday with showers and cooler air. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather across the CWA today...as moisture from tropical depression Bonnie overspreads the mountainous counties...and scattered thunderstorms have formed across parts of southeast Ohio...northeast Kentucky...and adjacent WV counties as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Overall...much of the moisture associated with TD Bonnie is struggling to reach the ground on western side of the mountains...with thunderstorms across western zones slow moving and producing brief heavy downpours. Have continued the trend with thunder in the western zones today...and showers across the east associated with Bonnie. Showers...and perhaps an isold thunderstorm will continue tonight...mainly across southeast Ohio and adjacent KY and WV counties...as a surface cold front...entering Indiana at 18Z...moves east into the region. However...activity will be rather limited due to the late arrival of the front. Drier...and cooler weather across much of the area on Monday...although a slight chance for showers will still exist across the east depending on the timing/exit of the front. Next concern for tonight is whether or not fog will form. At this point...thinking best bet/location for fog development is across the north and west...where some partial clearing late tonight is possible. Still...patchy fog development cannot be totally ruled out in other locations...particularly where rain occurs. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Remnants of tropical storm Bonnie is expected to be over the Carolinas by Tuesday 12z. Meanwhile, a cool front with limited moisture approaches from the northwest. The area will be under the influence of a small high pressure maintaining dry weather until Tuesday night. Small chance for showers appears along the mountains as moisture from the tropical system gets squeeze across the mountains. the front crosses to the south by 12z Wednesday. The diurnal heating and near calm flow will keep low chance for showers or storms Wednesday and Wednesday night along the mountains.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000 feet and higher. Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning. Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend guidance for temperatures through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Mainly vfr conditions through this evening...although brief mvfr and ifr conditions are possible in showers...and isolated thunderstorms through 02Z. MVFR and local IFR Fog possible late tonight...generally after 04-06Z...particularly across southeast Ohio...NE KY...and WV counties near to the Ohio River. However...fog cannot be completely ruled out tonight in any location that receives rainfall today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and coverage of shra and tsra remains in question today. Fog development tonight in question. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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