Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231922 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 222 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT 850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06 TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE. GENERALLY WENT A BIT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY 12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS. MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH COLDER. DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF. THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE SUNDAY COULD VARY. LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M L L M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M M H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-027>032-039-040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087. KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MZ

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