


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --275 FXUS61 KRLX 102355 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 755 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... Another summertime afternoon filled with scattered showers and storms are underway today amid hot and muggy conditions. Local stations across the forecast area depict a dew point spread within the upper 60s to low 70s and convective temperatures having been breached. As a result, isolated to scattered showers and storms have begun to sprout, being the most bountiful along the foothills and mountains. The weather forecast office has a decent vantage point of upward development off to the west in the Kanawha Valley and along the Ohio River Valley. Storms today will be primarily driven by daytime heating, and should quickly diminish in coverage after sunset. Lightning, locally damaging wind gusts, and heavy downpours will accompany convection today, with the overall severe risk staying outside of the forecast area. After showers and storms settle down this evening, excessive low level moisture and calm surface winds will serve up another strong signature for fog late tonight into Friday morning. Another rinse and repeat forecast will be on tap for Friday, with more diurnally driven showers and storms amid hot and muggy conditions. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... A conveyor belt of Gulf moisture continues to propel into the Central Appalachians over the weekend. Coupled with warming temperatures and ongoing humidity, daily opportunities for diurnally driven showers and storms will flourish under these conditions. Forecast sounding trends portray convective temperatures becoming exceeded during the late morning hours, with cumulus fields quickly blossoming and growing into convective storms through the afternoon and evening. Severe weather will be centered outside the forecast area, closer to a meandering frontal boundary, but a few rogue storms could grow strong enough to produce locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thursday... The new work week will continue to feature isolated potential for showers and storms along the spine of the Appalachians during peak heating hours. H5 ridging parked over the western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will supply enough subsidence to support more drier weather across the lowlands by Tuesday and Wednesday. Hot and muggy temperatures prevail through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 754 PM Thursday... Post-sunset, lingering shower activity is expected to diminish, leading to VFR conditions initially. However, with light to calm winds, mostly clear skies, and surface dewpoint holding in the upper 60s, conditions are highly favorable for radiation fog development. Patchy dense fog, resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions is anticipated to develop, particularly in river valleys and other fog-prone locations. The most significant fog is expected after 06Z. Any lingering fog from overnight will quickly lift or dissipate between 12Z and 13Z, with conditions improving back to VFR across the area. Surface heating and available moisture will fuel diurnal convection by mid-morning, around 15Z. Without significant upper-level support, thunderstorm development is expected to remain isolated to, at most widely scattered. Primary threats with any convection will be brief but rapid reductions in visibility and ceilings to IFR/LIFR levels, along with potential gusty/erratic winds in the vicinity of a storm. Convective activity will wane and dissipate around sunset 00Z Saturday. All terminals have a low to moderate probability of being impacted by a passing heavy shower or storm, warranting TEMPO groups in the TAFs to account for the potential for brief IFR conditions. This will need to be included in next TAFs issuances. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog development may vary overnight. Surface restrictions due to convection may vary from the forecast Friday afternoon and evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day through Monday. IFR fog possible during the overnights.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...ARJ