Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 120547 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 147 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES. PREV DISCN... IN THE EVENING UPDATED...WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT SEPARATIONS OF 25 TO 30 LATE FRIDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...WAS A BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FOG. IN OTHER WORDS...NOT AS MUCH FOG. GRANTED THE DEW POINT WILL CREEP HIGHER AFTER SUNSET. TRIED TO KEPT THE SIGNIFICANT FOG MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER AND COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY FROM THE WNW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS PERIOD. WHILE MODELS AGREE ON TWO MAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. SINCE THE GENERAL TREND IS TO SPEED UP THE WHOLE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ONE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THE WEST...AND THE SECOND BAND WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SEVERE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. IN BETWEEN...WE LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND UNSTABLE. THUS...WILL OUTLOOK WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA LATER SUNDAY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE...AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FOG SHOULD BE LESS COMPARED WITH THU NT GIVEN ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. YET...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...IFR TO VLIFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY EKN AND CRW...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE OTHER SITES THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR FCST WITH HIGH CU BASES AGAIN SAT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. MID CLOUD MOVING IN SAT NT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY. SFC FLOW WILL BE CALM BY NT AND LIGHT SW BY DAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LIGHT SW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WORRIED THERE IS MORE RATHER THAN LESS FOG OVERNIGHT / EARLY SAT MORNING.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 07/12/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...TRM

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