Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100026 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 726 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Digging upper trough and cold front push east overnight. Next upper trough and cold front Monday night, and another upper trough Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Sunday... Adjusted PoPs a bit with this fast moving system, and added blowing snow to the higher terrain into Sunday. Forecast otherwise on track, including snowfall amounts. Using special weather statements to handle the quick, initial burst of snow showers outside the high elevation advisory this evening. As of 200 PM Saturday... No major changes to the overall synoptic pattern with the digging of the upper level wave into the Great Lakes, providing the set up for convective snowfall across the CWA. Best lapse rates in the lower levels will be across the southern zones, and the upslope component will be somewhat short lived. Expecting the main accumulations in the mountains, with generally an inch or less over the lowlands. This could be a more robust event if not for the low dewpoint air in place, so sublimation will play a role in decreasing the snowfall, on the front end especially. Upper trough and low level moisture exits Sunday, with a reinforcement to the chilly airmass in place and mid 30s the ceiling for temperatures in the lowlands. Upper level wave descends into the Ohio Valley towards the end of the near term, with some mid level moisture/cloud cover for the region, but no precipitation late Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Saturday... As the system to our north exits, winds shift to the SW overnight on Sunday and continues into Monday. The warm southerly air will warm temperatures back to near normal for this time of year. A cold front pushes across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning. May see a . Forecast guidance is in good agreement with the cold front pushing through overnight Monday and early Tuesday morning. Precip may start out as a mix but everything behind the front should quickly change back to snow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 235 PM Saturday... Much colder air filters in behind the cold front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. NW flow with a fetch off the Great Lakes may provide some lake enhanced snow showers from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. The active pattern continues through the week, with a brief break Wednesday before a clipper system pushes through late in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Saturday... A cold front charging through the area right at the start of the forcast period was bringing snow showers producing IFR conditions at times. The IFR snow threat in HTS will end within the first hour of the forecast, PKB and CRW 01-02Z. At CKB, the threat window will be 02Z-05Z. In the mountains, BKW will have an IFR threat through 09Z, while EKN, the threat begins 03Z-04Z, and also continues until about 09Z-10Z early Sunday morning. Otherwise generally an MVFR stratocu deck will prevail outside the heavier snow showers, breaking up at HTS first thing Sunday morning, but persisting through much of the morning across the remainder of the lowlands, and into the afternoon in and near the mountains. The TAF period will end VFR late Sunday, with an altocu deck from a weather system passing north of the area. Gusty west to northwest surface winds will back to the southwest Sunday afternoon. Moderate west to southwest flow aloft will become moderate northwest overnight tonight, and then moderate west on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and IFR may vary from forecast. Timing on improvement on ceilings on Sunday may vary. Gusty winds will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L H M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M L M H H M L M H H L L BKW CONSISTENCY H M L L L L M L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M H M H L M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M L AFTER 00Z MONDAY... Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for WVZ520-522- 523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK/26 NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...TRM

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