Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 230930 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 430 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Nearly stationary front meanders about the area through the weekend, as surface waves pass. Areas of significant rainfall possible into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 420 AM Friday... Models show a front pushing back northward today as a surface wave brings more rain to northern portions of the forecast area. While most of the rain will be north of the front, some instability develops this afternoon south of the front, so can not rule out some showers or even thunderstorms there as well. Will continue the flood watch as ground is saturated and several streams and rivers remain in flood in southeastern Ohio. Behind the wave this evening, the cold front pushes back southward into the region before again stalling. Another wave is set to move along the front late Friday night into Saturday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM Thursday... Expect significant hydrologic issues in low lying areas, streams, and creeks, eventually leading to mainstem river flooding, especially late Saturday and early Sunday onwards. Main weather headline is that a surface front remains draped across the Ohio Valley for most of the period before moving east on Sunday, as stronger a system pushes in from the west. This will lead to several periods of significant precipitation falling in the upper Ohio River Valley through the weekend. After a brief respite Friday night, the next series of waves will traverse the front Saturday, then another one on Saturday evening, and then again early Sunday morning. For the wave tracking across late Saturday night, Sunday morning, there will be strong mid and low level jet support, and dynamics combined with copious amount of moisture available in the atmospheric column, should lead one last round of rain falling across southern and eastern Ohio as well as northern West Virginia. This last round will feature the heaviest rainfall Saturday night and Sunday morning. Staying close to RFC and WPC guidance for overall forecast precipitation amounts. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Thursday... 5h ridge with surface high pressure will lead to a drying trend. Next system works across the southern plains associated with the southern stream for Thursday. Followed model blends for temps and pops for long term. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 145 AM Friday... A nearly stationary frontal boundary dissects the area diagonally from northeast to southwest. LIFR conditions can be expected along and behind the front, with generally VFR conditions south and east of the front. This front should gradually push northward this morning, allowing for improving conditions in much of the area. A wave will move along the front today providing rain to Ohio and northern WV. The front will push back southward behind this wave this evening, again stalling over the area. Once again Friday night, expect LIFR along and behind the front with generally VFR south and east of the front. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing of the frontal boundary moving could vary, meaning LIFR conditions could last longer or lift quicker than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 02/23/18 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H M M H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M M M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY M M L L M H M M H H H M AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR possible at times in showers into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...RPY

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