Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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256 FXUS61 KRLX 132352 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 652 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. BITTER COLD AIR. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INCREASES MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AT SURFACE AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A WINTRY CONCOCTION TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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630 PM UPDATE...MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT DID EASE UP THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WE DECOUPLE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DISSOLVE OVERNIGHT. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...STILL LIKE OUR IDEA OF COLDER THAN GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...SINCE ANY MID CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL DAWN IN THE SOUTH. HAVE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING SUNDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SOURCE IS LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 0.5. SO ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN WHERE POPS INCREASE. STILL TOUGH ON WHEN FLAKES WILL REACH THE GROUND AFTER BEING ALOFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE SOME LKLY POPS REACHING NE KY AROUND 20 TO 21Z AND SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BKW BY 22Z. STILL HOLDING CHANCE POPS OFF FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER 21Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR EXTREME WEST AND SOUTH AN INCH OR LESS BY 23Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... INTERESTING SYSTEM TO FORECAST FOR BEGINS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY BROADLY ON THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE QPF CORE AND COLD AIR. THEREFORE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWLANDS WHERE 925 AND 850 TEMPERATURES INDICATE A WARM WEDGE OF NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR SNEAKING UP THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. EURO KEEPS THE SYSTEM WARM...GFS TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND WHILE THE NAME REMAINS THE COLDEST. IF EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...WE REMAIN WARM AND WET WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT THE ONSET. THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS WHAT THE FORECAST IS TAILORED AFTER GIVES A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN MOST PLACES TO START OFF WITH AND THEN GRADUALLY SWITCHES OVER TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY RAIN EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS. IF THE NAM SOLUTION RING TRUE...IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT MOST OF THE QPF REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST. SO ALL SAID AND DONE...2 TO 4 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST OF OUR CWA WHILE 8 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR...AND CREATING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GFS AND NAM INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF. GENERALLY FIGURING AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DRIER...AND GRADUALLY WARMING WEATHER EXPECTED BEHIND THE CLIPPER...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD. A STRONG INVERSION TONIGHT COULD KEEP SOME SMOKE FROM WOOD BURNING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING ELKINS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THICKENING AND LOWERING FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TOMORROW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. BY 18Z-20Z...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY START REACHING THE GROUND ALONG WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY...PLUS ALONG THE KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA BORDER. CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THOUSAND FEET AND VISIBILITY NEAR 3 MILES POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 18Z IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST AS SNOW BEGINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOWFALL TOMORROW IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND MAY HOLD OFF BEYOND THE CURRENT 00Z TAF PERIOD. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT AND MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WESTERN SLOPES MAY IMPROVE FOR A TIME MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ032-035>040- 046-047. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-047. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ033-034. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JW/SL NEAR TERM...KTB/MPK SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MPK

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