Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261746 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 146 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses late today with showers and thunderstorms. A large upper level low drops into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, and then swirls about the area Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Monday... Models in agreement with the convection associated with an approaching cold front expected to spread showers and storm tonight and Tuesday. High resolution models have the front decaying as the cold front moves over our area. However, sfc CAPE and deep layered shear can combine and produce tall thunderstorms through this evening. The line of showers have little lightning at this time. Adjusted hourly PoPs and sky grids per latest model runs. Previous discussion... A north to south temperature and dew point gradient has set up across the area on account of a cold front that slipped into the area from the north on Saturday. While the gradient will shift northward today in the strengthening southwest flow ahead of the approaching cold front, it looks like the greatest instability and potential for the strongest thunderstorms will be across southern portions of WV, and back into eastern Kentucky. Mid level flow increases to 30 to 40 kts and CAPE approaches 2 KJ / KG in a narrow axis just ahead of the cold front. The stronger of the multi-cells could produce minor damage. The HWO mentioned is maintained per SWODY1. Tonight will bring clearing in the wake of the front, with a brief period of post-rain fog and stratus. Highs and lows were close to the latest guidance, so not much change was needed. Hourly temperatures reflect the north to south baroclinic zone this morning, and then a more west to east gradient associated with the cold front later today. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 515 AM Monday... Cooler and unsettled weather in the short term period. Upper low/trough will dig south across the region...rotating across the area for much of the week. This will usher in much cooler...and showery weather to the CWA. Elected to lower temperatures slightly during the period...particularly on Thursday...with upper low over region...and 850mb temps dipping into the single digits. With that being said...it`s possible max temperatures on Thursday may be even slightly cooler than currently forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... Operational GFS, in a bit of a surprise, has now trended towards the operational ECMWF with the closed low aloft oscillating around over the eastern CONUS. Ensemble members still lean towards an quicker exiting open wave aloft...but the GFS ensemble mean changes from 00Z to 12Z look to be coming more in line with the aforementioned operational long term models. From a sensible weather standpoint, this typically results in a more off than on precipitation scheme and a temperature forecast that can end up cooler than the guidance numbers suggest. For the time of year, nothing seems out of the ordinary in the forecast based on seasonal norms, however. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 PM Monday... Radar and satellite images indicate convection ahead and along an approaching cold front. The PCPN activity will reach southeast OH by 18Z, then will spread east. So, expect MVFR/VFR conditions along showers or storms. Thunderstorms are evident ahead of the front in wV. These storms could produce a brief IFR condition under heavy rain. The front slowly exit the area to the east by 02z tonight. A brief period of stratus and fog is likely to follow the cold front tonight, although this may tend to linger in and near the WV mountains. Moderate southwest flow ahead of the front, will become light to moderate west to northwest behind the front tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The timing and impact of showers and thunderstorms with the front this afternoon and early evening may vary. Stratus and fog behind the front tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H M L H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L M L L H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M L L M H L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L M M H M L L L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible Tuesday through Friday mornings.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ

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