Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220649 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA...CLEARING...WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH...TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE OR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO KEPT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DEW POINTS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. ACROSS THE SOUTH...HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND GREATER CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL PUT A MENTION OF FROST IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE HIGH AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AS IT COULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES. LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AFFECTING SITES SUCH AS KBKW AND KEKN. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS STARTING TO FORM...CREATING LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT GENERALLY...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KCKB IN THE 20-02Z TIME PERIOD. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR HOWEVER. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS CLOSER TO 06Z CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...OR EVEN EXISTENCE OF FOG MAY VARY. TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M H H .AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED. && WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...SL

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