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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 120547
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY
LATER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSING TUESDAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
IN THE EVENING UPDATED...WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT SEPARATIONS OF 25
TO 30 LATE FRIDAY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...WAS A
BIT LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE FOG. IN OTHER WORDS...NOT AS MUCH
FOG. GRANTED THE DEW POINT WILL CREEP HIGHER AFTER SUNSET.  TRIED TO
KEPT THE SIGNIFICANT FOG MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER AND COOLER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY
FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MODELS AGREE ON TWO MAIN WAVES OF CONVECTION...THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. SINCE THE GENERAL TREND IS TO SPEED UP THE WHOLE SYSTEM
SOMEWHAT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...BUT NOT ALL THE WAY.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ONE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL SEVERE
IN THE WEST...AND THE SECOND BAND WITH THE FRONT LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SEVERE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. IN BETWEEN...WE
LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE. THUS...WILL OUTLOOK WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA LATER
SUNDAY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE...AND AREA WIDE MONDAY. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH
HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
TUESDAY...WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS COMPARED WITH THU NT GIVEN ANOTHER DAY OF
DRYING.  YET...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...IFR TO VLIFR FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY EKN
AND CRW...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE OTHER SITES THROUGH DAWN.

OTHERWISE VFR FCST WITH HIGH CU BASES AGAIN SAT...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MID CLOUD MOVING IN SAT NT WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING...BUT BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY.

SFC FLOW WILL BE CALM BY NT AND LIGHT SW BY DAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WORRIED THERE IS MORE RATHER THAN LESS FOG
OVERNIGHT / EARLY SAT MORNING..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 07/12/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOG WHERE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM